Welcome to Week 7 of Bracketology.
Each week from now until Selection Sunday on March 23, I will outline the current 16 teams in the men’s NCAA Division I tournament and attempt to seed a bracket based on the current field.
Connecticut continued to help its cause with an overtime win over Maine, catapulting the Huskies to eighth in the PairWise. Penn State, which still remains on the wrong side of the bubble, really helped its case taking five-of-six points from Michigan State. The Nittany Lions sit in 16th in the PairWise, but trail UMass Lowell, which sits at 14th, by .0008 in the RPI. Of any team currently below the bubble, Penn State currently has the best chance to earn its way into the NCAA field.
All that said, here are the 16 teams who would qualify for the NCAA tournament if the season ended today:
1. Boston College*
2. Michigan State*
3. Minnesota
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan*
6. Providence
7. Boston University
8. Connecticut
9. Denver
10. Ohio State
11. Michigan
12. Massachusetts
13. Quinnipiac*
14. UMass Lowell
15. Minnesota State*
16. Holy Cross*
* – Indicates team that currently has the top conference winning percentage in their respective conference. While each conference is awarded an autobid for its tournament champion, for the purposes of this exercise we will use the first-place team (based on winning %) to receive the autobid.
With the field of 16 in place, we can now seed the four regions using basic bracket integrity (1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, etc.).
1. Boston College
8. Connecticut
9. Denver
16. Holy Cross
2. Michigan State
7. Boston University
10. Ohio State
15. Minnesota State
3. Minnesota
6. Providence
11. Michigan
14. UMass Lowell
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan
12. Massachusetts
13. Quinnipiac
As a reminder and also for those who aren’t regular readers of Bracketology, there is one thing that the committee seems to avoid at all costs and that is first-round matchups between teams from the same conference. Good news, though. This week we have none.
It actually makes this one of the easiest brackets to assemble. Let’s take the above bracket and assign regions, remembering that host schools need to play in that region. That’s not an issue this week, though Penn State, the host in Allentown, continues to creep its way up the rankings and are now a bubble team.
Boston College is the top seed and should play closest to home in Manchester, N.H. Michigan State is the second seed and the closest region is Toledo, Ohio, less than two hours from Lansing. Minnesota is the third overall seed and would head to Fargo, N.D., which leaves Maine to play in Allentown, Pa.
That gives us the following:
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
8. Connecticut
9. Denver
16. Holy Cross
Toledo Region
2. Michigan State
7. Boston University
10. Ohio State
15. Minnesota State
Fargo Region
3. Minnesota
6. Providence
11. Michigan
14. UMass Lowell
Allentown Region
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan
12. Massachusetts
13. Quinnipiac
With the four regions set, we now can look at how attendance will be impacted by the participating teams in each region. Regular readers know this is where we often get creative in hopes of creating better atmospheres in each region.
Looking at the current field, there is NOTHING that one can do to improve things. Manchester will be strong with BC, UConn and Holy Cross nearby. Toledo has Michigan State and Ohio State, both within two hours. Fargo will need the Gopher faithful and maybe some Michigan fans to help carry attendance. And Allentown continues to be the sore spot, though Quinnipiac, Maine and UMass all have decent fan bases who might make the drive.
As mentioned earlier, though, the saving grace for Allentown will occur if Penn State continues to win. The Nittany Lions are 9-1-3 in their last 13 and have moved from 28th to 16th in the PairWise in a little more than a month. If they get inside the bubble, they’ll play in Allentown and help sell tickets in that region.
Thus, we have no more movement in this week’s bracket. It’s the rare perfect bracket.
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
2. Connecticut
3. Denver
4. Holy Cross
Toledo Region
1. Michigan State
2. Boston University
3. Ohio State
4. Minnesota State
Fargo Region
1. Minnesota
2. Providence
3. Michigan
4. UMass Lowell
Allentown Region
1. Maine
2. Western Michigan
3. Massachusetts
4. Quinnipiac
Last in: UMass Lowell, Massachusetts
First out: Arizona State, Penn State
Keep an eye on: Penn State as they play a two-game series at home against Minnesota to close the Big Ten schedule. If the Nittany Lions sweep, they’ll take a big jump forward into the field of 16.
