After this weekend’s games, the PairWise bubble became very well defined. So much so that the three teams on the bubble know exactly what needs to happen for them to make or miss the NCAA tournament.
Let’s start with the known. Twelve teams have clinched their NCAA bids:
- Boston College
- Michigan State
- Maine
- Minnesota
- Western Michigan
- Boston University
- Connecticut
- Providence
- Ohio State
- Denver
- Massachusetts
- Minnesota State*
* The CCHA champion will be either Minnesota State or St. Thomas, but St. Thomas isn’t eligible for the tournament. Thus, Minnesota State has clinched the CCHA autobid
Two additional champions will be represented by the Atlantic Hockey American and the ECAC champions. That accounts for 14 teams, leaving two spots. Right now, three teams are looking to take those spots: Quinnipiac, Penn State and Michigan.
Of those three, only one team controls its destiny, Quinnipiac. If they Bobcats win the ECAC championship, they will automatically qualify.
There are six other teams who can take away one of these bids by winning their conference tournaments.
- NCHC: Arizona State, North Dakota
- Hockey East: Northeastern
- ECAC: Clarkson, Cornell, Dartmouth
We can further break this down by individual scenarios that would qualify or disqualify the bubble teams. There are a total of 4,096 current scenarios remaining. Here they are broken down by the number of teams that could get bumped off the bubble.
=== 3 BID STEALS (1 option)
If Northeastern wins HEA, Cornell/Dartmouth/Clarkson win ECAC, ASU/North Dakota win NCHC (384 scenarios):
Quinnipiac, Penn State and Michigan OUT
=== 2 BID STEALS (3 options)
1. If Northeastern wins HEA, Cornell/Dartmouth/Clarkson win ECAC, ASU/North Dakota DON’T win NCHC (384 scenarios):
Quinnipiac in 237 (61.7%)
Penn State in 147 (38.3%)
Michigan OUT
2. If Northeastern DOESN’T win HEA, Cornell/Dartmouth/Clarkson win ECAC, ASU/North Dakota win NCHC (1152 scenarios):
Quinnipiac in 683 (59.3%)
Penn State in 469 (40.7%)
Michigan OUT
3. If Northeastern wins HEA, Cornell/Dartmouth/Clarkson DON’T win ECAC, ASU/North Dakota win NCHC (128 scenarios)
Quinnipiac IN
Penn State, Michigan OUT
=== 1 BID STEAL (3 options)
1. If Northeastern wins HEA, Cornell/Dartmouth/Clarkson DON’T win ECAC, ASU/North Dakota DON’T win NCHC (128 scenarios):
Quinnipiac Penn State IN
Michigan OUT
2. If Northeastern DOESN’T win HEA, Cornell/Dartmouth/Clarkson DON’T win ECAC, ASU/North Dakota win NCHC (384 scenarios)
Quinnipiac, Penn State IN
Michigan OUT
3. If Northeastern DOESN’T win HEA, Cornell/Dartmouth/Clarkson win ECAC, ASU/North Dakota DON’T win NCHC (1152 scenarios):
Quinnipiac, Penn State IN
Michigan OUT
=== 0 BID STEALS (1 option)
If Northeastern DOESN’T win HEA, Cornell/Dartmouth/Clarkson DON’T win ECAC, ASU/North Dakota DON’T win NCHC (384 scenarios):
Quinnipiac, Penn State and Michigan IN
So you can see, the odds of all three bubble teams reaching the tournament aren’t very good: Just 384 out of 4,096 scenarios, or 9.3 percent of the time. That’s the exact same odds for all three of these teams to MISS the tournament.
The most likely outcome, though, is for two of the three teams to make the tournament. And every one of those scenarios includes Quinnipiac and Penn State in the field and excludes Michigan.
There’s still plenty to play for this weekend. But now you know which teams to root for and against to help your favorite team’s chances.
