Welcome to Week 10 of Bracketology.
Each week from now until Selection Sunday coming up in five days on March 23, I will outline the current 16 teams in the men’s NCAA Division I tournament and attempt to seed a bracket based on the current field.
This past weekend’s playoff games across all six leagues provided plenty of excitement, some mild upsets, and most important to this conversation really made the PairWise bubble come into clearer form.
We now have 11 schools who have clinched at-large bids in the tournament. They are: Boston College, Michigan State, Maine, Minnesota, Western Michigan, Boston University, Connecticut, Providence, Ohio State, Denver and Massachusetts.
We can add to that list Minnesota State. The Mavericks will face St. Thomas in the CCHA championship game on Friday night, but the Tommies are still ineligible for the NCAA tournament while they wait out the final season of reclassification from Division III to Division I. Thus, regardless of the winner on Friday, Minnesota State earns the conference’s autobid.
Adding those together you have 12 spots spoken for. The AHA and ECAC Hockey champions will take up two additional spots. Thus, there are two bids still remaining.
Right now, three teams can earn that bid at-large: Quinnipiac, Penn State and Michigan. There are six teams that can alter the cutline by a team winning its conference tournament from outside the top 16. They are: Arizona State, North Dakota, Northeastern, Clarkson, Cornell and Dartmouth. Quinnipiac is the only team on that list that can qualify through either an automatic qualifier or an at-large bid, and no coincidence, the Bobcats have the best chance of the bubble teams to make the field of 16.
The order of bubble eliminations seems to be Michigan, Penn State and Quinnipiac. Thus, if from that list of six teams above, one team wins their conference championship, Michigan will be out. If two teams from that list win, Michigan and Penn State are out. And if three teams win (NCHC, Hockey East, ECAC), the trio of Michigan, Penn State and Quinnipiac will all be eliminated.
That’s a lot to unpack. But for now, let’s take the 16 teams and develop a bracket based on the current PairWise.
1. Boston College
2. Michigan State*
3. Maine*
4. Minnesota
5. Western Michigan*
6. Boston University
7. Connecticut
8. Providence
9. Ohio State
10. Denver
11. Massachusetts
12. Quinnipiac*
13. Penn State
14. Michigan
15. Minnesota State*
16. Holy Cross*
* Automatic qualifier (right now, highest remaining seed in each tournament)
With the field of 16 in place, we can now seed the four regions using basic bracket integrity (1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, etc.).
1. Boston College
8. Providence
9. Ohio State
16. Holy Cross
2. Michigan State
7. Connecticut
10. Denver
15. Minnesota State
3. Maine
6. Boston University
11. Massachusetts
14. Michigan
4. Minnesota
5. Western Michigan
12. Quinnipiac
13. Penn State
As a reminder and also for those who aren’t regular readers of Bracketology, there is one thing that the committee seems to avoid at all costs and that is first-round matchups between teams from the same conference. This week, we have a bit of a mess.
Let’s begin with 13 Penn State and 14 Michigan, which are both four seeds. They cannot play either 2 Michigan State or 4 Minnesota. Thus, Boston College, the tournament’s top seed, would be forced in this scenario to play either Michigan or Penn State. We also have issues in the matchup between 6 Boston University and 11 Massachusetts. This one is a little easier to solve by simply switching 12 Quinnipiac and 11 UMass.
So knowing we have to realign the 1 vs. 4 matchup in each bracket, I think that’s the best place to start. It would be ideal to have Boston College, the overall No. 1 seed, to play the lower ranked of those two Big Ten teams, Michigan. Maine would then face Penn State, while Michigan State would face the lowest remaining seed, Holy Cross.
Let’s see what that has done to the bracket.
1. Boston College
8. Providence
9. Ohio State
14. Michigan
2. Michigan State
7. Connecticut
10. Denver
16. Holy Cross
3. Maine
6. Boston University
12. Quinnipiac
13. Penn State
4. Minnesota
5. Western Michigan
11. Massachusetts
15. Minnesota State
This isn’t ideal given that Boston College has been the clear cut number one team in the PairWise for more than two months and locked up the number one overall seed this weekend despite losing to Northeastern. Such a heavy number one seed should not be running into a team from the Big Ten when there are lower-ranked teams in the field. But to avoid the Big Ten matchups in the first round, there is no other solution right now.
With all of those changes, we now need to assign regions to each four-team bracket. Penn State as the host team in Allentown plays in that region. When we place Penn State and its four-team bracket in Allentown, we still have the other three top seeds in each region (Boston College, Michigan State and Minnesota) all playing in regions closest to campus.
To accomplish that, we place Boston College to Manchester, Michigan State to Toledo and Minnesota to Fargo.
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
8. Providence
9. Ohio State
14. Michigan
Toledo Region
2. Michigan State
7. Connecticut
10. Denver
16. Holy Cross
Allentown Region
3. Maine
6. Boston University
12. Quinnipiac
13. Penn State
Fargo Region
4. Minnesota
5. Western Michigan
11. Massachusetts
15. Minnesota State
Are there any other changes to make? How about switching Ohio State and Denver to have the Buckeyes playing in their home state? I like this.
Otherwise, attendance seems decent across the board. Manchester needs Boston College and Providence to drive things. Toledo will now have Michigan State and Ohio State to help fill the building, which has a capacity just over 8,000. Allentown will be sold out thanks to Penn State. And Fargo, with both Minnesota and Minnesota State, should be near capacity.
So that’s my final bracket for this week:
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
8. Providence
10. Denver
14. Michigan
Toledo Region
2. Michigan State
7. Connecticut
9. Ohio State
16. Holy Cross
Allentown Region
3. Maine
6. Boston University
12. Quinnipiac
13. Penn State
Fargo Region
4. Minnesota
5. Western Michigan
11. Massachusetts
15. Minnesota State
Last in: Michigan, Penn State
First out: Arizona State, North Dakota
One other note: I was tempted to go with an alternate version of the bracket that switched Holy Cross and Minnesota State. The reasoning isn’t important, but that would have set up a first-round game between Minnesota and Holy Cross in North Dakota, the sound of which might make Gopher fans cringe.
Keep an eye out for Bracketology Extra, each night throughout the conference semis and finals with updates based on each evening’s results. And of course, look out for Bracketology Final late on Saturday evening as I put forth my final bracket for the NCAA tournament.
