Fargo Regional, March 27-29 | SCHEELS Arena, Fargo, N.D.
No. 1 Western Michigan (30-7-1) vs. No. 4 Minnesota State (27-8-3) | March 27, 5 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
No. 2 Minnesota (25-10-4) vs. No. 3 Massachusetts (20-13-5) | March 27, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Fargo Regional Championship | March 29, 4 p.m. or 6:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
WESTERN MICHIGAN
How they got here: Won NCHC tournament, 4th in final PairWise
Overall season record: 30-7-1
Top players: F Alex Bump (23-23-46), F Grant Slukynsky (9-26-35), F Tim Washe (15-19-34), D Samuel Sjolund (4-24-28), G Cameron Rowe (15-2-0, 2.00 GAA, .924 SV%), G Hampton Slukynsky (15-5-1, 2.04 GAA, .918 SV%)
Why they will advance to the Frozen Four: Out of the 16 teams still playing, Western might be the one you want to play the least straight away in the NCAA tournament. The Broncos have more than enough weapons offensively to get to St. Louis and maybe even win the whole thing. And put either Rowe or Slukysnky between the pipes, and you’re plenty loaded at the back end, too.
Why they won’t advance to the Frozen Four: It’s less to do with the Broncos themselves, and more to do with the strength of this tournament field. Minnesota State is not going to be an easy out, and let’s remember that Western is the only program in this regional that hasn’t made a Frozen Four. “Yet,” we hasten to add, but the fact remains: the Broncos are facing teams who know what it takes.
MINNESOTA
How they got here: At-large bid, 5th in final PairWise
Overall season record: 25-10-4
Top players: F Jimmy Snuggerud (22-27-49), F Matthew Wood (17-21-38), F Connor Kurth (17-21-38), D Sam Rinzel (10-21-30), G Liam Souliere (13-7-2, 2.28 GAA, .918 SV%), G Natha Airey (12-3-2, 2.42 GAA, .902 SV%)
Why they will advance to the Frozen Four: This Minnesota team is absolutely loaded with offensive talent, averaging 3.85 goals per game for the nation’s third-best offense. That offense is balanced as well, with 15 different players having scored game-winning goals for the Golden Gophers this season. The Gophers are making their third Frozen Four appearance in four years, so many players on this team know what it takes to play through a regional. Because Minnesota bowed out in the quarterfinal round of Big Ten play, Minnesota has had some time to heal up some injuries and address some inadequacies.
Why they won’t advance to the Frozen Four: The Gophers haven’t played since March 9 after losing their best-of-three quarterfinal series to Notre Dame. That may work to their advantage, but that lack of game time may have them at a disadvantage in their first match against Massachusetts. For as good as their offense is, their power play is only okay as is their defense, which allows on average 2.46 goals per game. They play disciplined hockey and they need to with the 52nd-best PK in the nation. Minnesota looked off a step all season long and only once did they beat different opponents in consecutive games (Ohio State Jan. 11 and Notre Dame Jan. 17) and they swept opponents just twice.
MASSACHUSETTS
How they got here: At-large bid, 10th in final PairWise
Overall season record: 20-13-5
Top players: F Jack Musa (18-16-34), D Linden Alger (3-6-9), G Michael Hrabal (18-11-5, 2.33, .926 SV%), F Lucas Mercuri (10-21-31), F Cole O’Hara (22-29-51), F Ryan Lautenbach (6-14-20), F Aydar Suniev (18-18-36).
Why they will advance to the Frozen Four: Last year UMass was the host and one of three northeast-based teams in Springfield, Mass., where the outlier, Denver, advanced to the Frozen Four. This year, UMass is the outlier in the midwest among three midwest schools. Plus the Minutemen were slightly better away from their home ice this year than on it — and Fargo, N.D., is about as far away as you can get from Amherst, Mass., at least in the college hockey world.
Why they won’t advance to the Frozen Four: Of the six Hockey East teams to qualify for the tournament, UMass was the last one in. Plus its nonconference schedule left a lot to be desired (Alaska? AIC? Robert Morris?), featuring only two tournament teams (Bentley and Cornell, both automatic qualifiers).
MINNESOTA STATE
How they got here: Won CCHA tournament, 14th in final PairWise
Overall season record: 28-9-3
Top players: G Alex Tracy (26-8-3, 1.43 GAA, .918 SV%), F Rhett Pitlick 13-27–40), D Evan Murr (7-19–26); F Josh Groll (14-18–32), F Luigi Benincasa (6-18–24)
Why they will advance to the Frozen Four: The best defensive team in the country simply doesn’t let other teams score. Alex Tracy, a Mike Richter Award finalist and Hobey Baker semifinalist, has given up more than three goals in a game just five times this season, and hasn’t done it at all since January. And the experienced defensive corps in front of him–players like Evan Murr, Campbell Cichosz, Steve Bellini and Jordan Power–make life difficult for opponents. They’ve done it against top teams before, and won’t be afraid of Western Michigan–much less instate rivals Minnesota, who they could play in the next round.
Why they won’t advance to the Frozen Four: Mavericks head coach Luke Strand said in his weekly news conference on Monday that he considered Western Michigan to be the best team in the country. Their high-octane offense is No. 1 in the nation, so this matchup really is a case of “when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.” The Broncos are very good at scoring in bunches, and it’s not often that they score less than three goals in a game–only eight teams have held them to under that. If the first game turns into a track meet, it’s going to be tough for the Mavericks to keep up even despite having a dynamic offensive player like Rhett Pitlick on their team. One player can only score so much.
