It’s been a while since we’ve picked a game, but that doesn’t hide the horrid final weekend I had before the break.
Jim’s last week: 0-2-0 Dave’s last week: 2-0-0 Jim’s record-to-date: 55-40-9 Dave’s record-to-date: 58-37-9
Here are picks for this weekend’s non-league and tournament action and games through next Thursday:
Thursday, December 29
Clarkson vs. Maine (at Florida College Classic)
Jim’s pick: Wasn’t the best first half for Maine, but I’ll throw the Black Bears my vote of confidence to open the second half. Maine 4, Clarkson 2
Dave’s pick: The Black Bears beat Clarkson, 4-3, a month ago. I’ll go for a holiday rerun. Maine 4, Clarkson 3
Boston College vs. Michigan (at Great Lakes Invitational)
Jim’s pick: At the beginning of the season, we’d have thought of this as a marquis matchup. Then Michigan took a nose-dive. That makes me think this should be all BC. BC 5, Michigan 2
Dave’s pick: I’m not sure if Michigan will stay down all season long, but I don’t see them getting up against the Eagles. BC 4, Michigan 2
Massachusetts-Lowell vs. Rensselaer (at UConn Holiday Classic)
Jim’s pick: The River Hawks machine picks right back up to start the second half. UML 4, RPI 1
Dave’s pick: Rensselaer appears to be headed where Lowell went last year (last place). The River Hawks are loving the change. UML 4, RPI 2
Lake Superior at Vermont (Catamount Cup)
Jim’s pick: Things aren’t any prettier now that the second half begins for Vermont LSSU 5, UVM 2
Dave’s pick: The tough times continue for the Cats, even in their own tournament. LSSU 4, UVM1
Friday, December 30
Brown at New Hampshire
Jim’s pick: So is a non-league game vs. an ECAC team what New Hampshire needs? Maybe, though I remember thinking the same thing when they faced Harvard. Still, I will give UNH the benefit of the doubt here. UNH 3, Brown 2
Dave’s pick: The Wildcats have been terribly inconsistent, but I still see them making a second-half charge. UNH 4, Brown 3
Northeastern vs. Princeton (at Mariucci Classic)
Jim’s pick: Here’s hoping that NU keeps going its mojo from before the break. NU 4, Princeton 2
Dave’s pick: Seven in a row for college hockey’s hottest team. NU 4, Princeton 1
Merrimack vs. St. Lawrence (at Ledyard Bank Tournament)
Jim’s pick: Third straight ECAC opponent for the Warriors. First win. MC 4, SLU 2
Dave’s pick: The Warriors hit a pothole or two before the break, but they get back on track right here. MC 5, SLU2
Maine vs. UMass/Cornell (at Florida College Classic)
Jim’s pick: One of the many situations where the opponent decides my outcome. vs. Cornell: Cornell 5, Maine 3; vs. UMass: Maine 3, UMass 2
Dave’s pick: I was hoping to disagree with Jim here, but can’t. Cornell is having a terrific year so far; Umass, not. vs. Cornell: Cornell 5, Maine 2; vs. UMass: Maine 4, UMass 2
Boston College vs. Michigan State/Michigan Tech (at Great Lakes Invitational)
Jim’s pick: I think both opponents will be difficult, but I see BC coming out of this tournament a winner. vs. MSU: BC 3, MSU 2; vs. MTU: BC 4, MTU 2
Dave’s pick: I agree with Jim’s outcome, but think it’ll be easier for the Eagles than he thinks. vs. MSU: BC 4, MSU 2; vs. MTU: BC 5, MTU 2
Massachusetts-Lowell vs. Connecticut/Army (at UConn Holiday Classic)
Jim’s pick: Despite an early-season loss to UConn, I think Lowell comes out on top regardless of opponent. vs. UConn: Lowell 4, UConn 2; vs. Army: Lowell 6, Army 2
Dave’s pick: I was a lot slower to hop on the River Hawks’ bandwagon than Jim, but even a dope like me sees a win for them here. vs. UConn: Lowell 5, UConn 2; vs. Army: Lowell 6, Army 1
Ferris State at Vermont (at Catamount Cup)
Jim’s pick: Two tough CCHA opponents for the Cats in this pre-determined pairings tournament spell two more losses. FSU 5, UVM 3
Dave’s pick: Have to agree (again!) with Jim, although I fear an even more lopsided loss. Ferris State is 11-6-1; the Cats are, well, having a tough year. FSU 6, UVM 2
Saturday, December 31
Boston University at Notre Dame
Jim’s pick: Hard to predict how BU will look without Trivino and Coyle, but I’m still picking them here. BU 3, ND 2
Dave’s pick: Before the Terriers lost the two forwards, I’d have been all over them. But I think it’ll take a bit of time to fill in the gaps, especially against quality opponents like the Irish. ND 3, BU 2
Northeastern vs. Niagara/Minnesota (at Mariucci Classic)
Jim’s pick: NU should handle Niagara no problem, but Goldy would prove a challenge. vs. Niagara: NU 5, Niagara 2; vs. Minn.: Minn. 4, NU 3
Dave’s pick: Agreed, especially taking on the Gophers on their home ice. vs. Niagara: NU 5, Niagara 2; vs. Minn.: Minn. 4, NU 2
Merrimack vs. Dartmouth/Holy Cross
Jim’s pick: Though Dartmouth might give Merrimack a game at home, I think this is Merrimack’s tournament to win. vs. Dartmouth: MC 3, Dartmouth 2; vs. HC: MC 6, HC 2
Dave’s pick: The Warriors all the way. Not back to No. 1 in the country but at least No. 1 in this tourney. vs. Dartmouth: MC 4, Dartmouth 2; vs. HC: MC 5, HC 2
Sunday, January 1
Brown at Providence (Mayor’s Cup)
Jim’s pick: Friars take this year’s annual battle of Providence. PC 4, Brown 2
Dave’s pick: It’ll be a close one, but yes, the Friars prevail. PC 3, Brown 2
Wednesday, January 4
Vermont at Maine
Jim’s pick: Black Bears get a much-needed home win. Maine 5, UVM 2
Dave’s pick: Based on the season the Cats have been having, it’s tough to imagine them stealing one at Alfond. Maine 5, UVM 3
Thursday, January 5
Massachusetts at Providence
Jim’s pick: Providence was a great first-half team at home and that weighs in part on my pick. PC 3, UMass 2
Dave’s pick: A great point by Jim. PC was 7-2-1 at home; UMass was 0-7-1 on the road. PC 4, UMass 1
Whether your favorite team used the first half to build a foundation for the rest of the season or only managed to dig itself a hole, plenty of work remains over the next couple of months in order to stock a worthy highlight video.
Assuming that your team of choice has tournament dreams, how realistic are they? The only true measure of whether or not a team will catch the fancy of the NCAA selection committee is the PairWise Rankings (PWR), a set of criteria and rules for their application that is admittedly short of the federal tax code in complexity, but is still likely more convoluted than one may want while nibbling on holiday baking and contemplating placing a wager on an upcoming bowl game.
A far simpler method for determining if a team’s current pace would be sufficient to secure a slot in a national tournament bracket is to merely consider winning percentage and compare it to the historical threshold for receiving tournament bids. Obviously, such an approach is inherently flawed, because if the field as determined by winning percentage mirrored the PWR selections, then any win over any opponent would be just as valuable and the NCAA could jettison the PWR.
For an example of the deficiencies of raw winning percentage as a field predictor, one need look no farther than the current PWR, where Minnesota-Duluth would qualify eighth with a winning percentage of .575, while Northeastern’s .750 has it on the wrong side of the bubble. Robert Morris owns an even better .800 mark, yet its Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) fails to land it in the top 12 or merit consideration.
However, society likes to talk about percentages. Watch your local weather, where the forecaster will confidently point at a graphic and authoritatively pronounce a 20 percent chance of precipitation as the rain falls steadily and shows no sign of stopping. Or the doctor will tell you that your odds of survival are 40 percent in the same tone that he used two months prior to deliver the good news that your disease was in remission. How are these percentages derived, and what do they even mean? By comparison, our hockey winning percentage discussion is downright scientific.
The field expanded to eight teams for the 2005 tournament, meaning seven years worth of data exists to consider. During that time, the lowest winning percentage for the last team into the field was .588, by Harvard in 2006. A couple notes about this value are worth mentioning. The Crimson would have advanced to the NCAAs in any case, because they won the ECAC tournament and the conference autobid, but as I remember it, their postseason run had moved them into the top eight in the PWR as well. The second-lowest cutoff mark, .622 by Boston University, came in 2010. Both 2006 and 2010 were Olympic years, indicating that the absence of elite players for weeks or even an entire season serves to increase parity. By comparison, the eighth team into the tournament has had a maximum winning percentage of .667, a median of .656, and a mean of .646, suggesting that the results are rather consistent beyond the Olympic year outliers.
Those numbers cause one to theorize that UMD’s current .575 pace will not be sufficient for a tournament berth. That makes sense when looking at their schedule, as the Bulldogs played six games, and lost three times, to highly-ranked teams Boston College and North Dakota, but aren’t scheduled to face either in January or February. Suppose that UMD repeated the rest of its results from the first half: sweeping St. Cloud State and Minnesota State, splitting with Ohio State and Bemidji State, and being swept by Wisconsin and Minnesota. Assuming two wins in the WCHA quarterfinals and a loss in the WCHA semifinals, UMD would come into Selection Sunday with a record of 19-15-1 for a winning percentage of .557. It is very doubtful that would warrant an at-large bid. Let’s assume that the Bulldogs would need to achieve a percentage more in line with the mean of past years. How many losses would they need to eliminate from the seven just projected for the remainder of the season? Rather than losing six more times during the remainder of the WCHA regular season as in the scenario above, if UMD reduced its losses to only three before a WCHA semifinal loss, then the resulting winning percentage increases to .643. The strength of their conference should allow them to qualify with that record, and perhaps even with an extra blemish or two, but that would be the lowest winning percentage to get an at-large berth outside of an Olympic year.
Looking at Boston University next, the Terriers currently sit at 10-9-1 with 14 games remaining on the schedule. Assuming that BU plays two additional games in the Hockey East tournament, 13 more wins would produce a record of 23-12-1 and a winning percentage of .653, likely good enough to advance. Prior to the postseason, the Terriers have a total of four games remaining with ranked teams BC, Northeastern, and Harvard, so their fate may hinge heavily on how they perform in three games versus Maine right out of the break.
Suppose the goal is not merely to qualify for the tournament, but to host an NCAA tournament quarterfinal. Historically, the fourth seed has qualified with a winning percentage as high as New Hampshire’s .847 in 2007, to a low of the .703 turned in by Harvard in 2010. Again, the two lowest values came in Olympic years, the 2010 Harvard record and a .724 by Minnesota in 2006. As with the eighth spot, the outliers impact the mean more than the median, as those values for four seeds come in at .770 and .779 respectively. To date, those values are holding true, as Mercyhurst at .778 would host, while Boston College at .710 would not.
For teams hoping to enter the tournament as the top seed, the bar is set high. Harvard posted the best winning percentage with a lofty .970 in 2008, while Wisconsin’s .882 in 2009 was the lowest. That didn’t prevent the Badgers from taking home the title, while the Crimson fell in the semifinals; ironically, UNH, the owner of the second-best winning percentage at .929 in 2006, also was eliminated in round two. The other three top seeds with winning percentages above .900 — Wisconsin in 2007 and 2011 and Minnesota in 2005 — went on to claim the championship. This season, only the Badger’s mark of 19-1 for .950 is in line with any precedent.
While not a perfect indicator, raw winning percentage can still act as a rough guideline of a team’s postseason potential. If the picture painted is dismal, then depending on your conference affiliation, fix your sights on the automatic bid or adopt the time-honored mantra: there’s always next year!
Thursday, Dec. 29
Army at Connecticut – This is the second semifinal of the UConn Holiday Classic tournament, but it doubles as a conference game. I like the Huskies at home. UConn 3, Army 1.
Rochester Institute of Technology vs. Ferris State – The Catamount Cup has a pre-determined format, so the Tigers will not face the host Vermont Catamounts. Instead they’ll play two ranked CCHA teams, including this first-ever meeting with the 11th-ranked Bulldogs. Ferris State 4, RIT 1.
Friday, Dec. 30 Air Force at Colorado College – Two high-flying offenses clash in the battle of Colorado Springs. I like the Tigers at home. Colorado College 4, Air Force 3.
Canisius at Colgate – The Griffs face a tall order against the No. 12 Raiders. The home team has won all five previous meetings between the two teams and I think that will hold true again. Colgate 4, Canisius 2.
Ohio State at Robert Morris – This is yet another chance for an AHA team to knock off a ranked team – the Buckeyes come in at No. 4. RMU knocked off Ohio State last season, but I think OSU previals this time. OSU 4, RMU 3.
Niagara at Minnesota – This is the second semifinal of the Marinucci Classic. The Gophers have had their share of upsets and near-upsets at the hands of AHA teams, but this time I’m picking them to come away with a clear win. Minnesota 5, Niagara 2.
Holy Cross at Dartmouth – The Crusaders are 3-3-1 all-time against the Big Green, but I like the home team to not disappoint in its own tournament. This is the second semifinal of the Ledyard Bank Classic. Dartmouth 3, Holy Cross 2.
Lake Superior vs. RIT – Another tournament game and another ranked opponent for the Tigers. No. 16 Lake State and RIT have never played before. I think the Tigers go 0-2 in this tournament. LSSU 4, RIT 2.
Army/UConn vs. Rensselaer/Mass-Lowell – I’m picking the AHA teams to lose these games. I think Mass-Lowell will win the tournament.
Saturday, Dec. 31 Denver at Air Force – This is my upset special. Air Force has been playing very well and No. 15 ranked Denver was hot-and-cold before the break. Air Force 2, Denver 1.
Northeastern/Princeton vs. Niagara – I’m picking the Purple Eagles to beat Princeton but lose to Northeastern if they wind up paired in the second round of the Mariucci Classic.
Merrimack/St. Lawrence vs. Holy Cross – I think Holy Cross beats SLU, but loses to Merrimack should they be paired in the second round of the Ledyard Bank Classic.
Sunday, Jan 1. Bentley at Yale – Yale learned its lesson on taking an AHA team lightly earlier this season, and I think the Bulldogs come out strong after a disappointing first half. Yale 4, Bentley 2.
Friday, Dec. 30 and Saturday Dec. 31 Mercyhurst at Alabama-Huntsville – These games are the final NCAA contests in Huntsville this season, and hopefully not the last ever. Mercyhurst 5, UAH 3; Mercyhurst 3, UAH 2.
Take Me On
Feel free to chime in by posting your picks in the comments.
After a one-week hiatus, the “ever-popular” picks blog makes its triumphant return today but only in sneak-peek fashion as we only have a pair of Thursday games. As an added bonus, however, we opted to pick Western Michigan and St. Cloud State as a series. No need to thank us.
The rest of our apparently fascinating prognostications for this weekend will arrive tomorrow for your breakfast-reading pleasure.
Western Michigan (9-4-5, 7-4-3 CCHA) at St. Cloud State (7-9-4, 5-6-3 WCHA) — Thursday/Friday
Tyler: The Huskies are without defensive cornerstone Kevin Gravel, and though it’s only for this weekend while he’s at World Juniors, the Broncos come in allowing six goals in the last four games. WMU is unbeaten in five games and swept a ranked Ferris State team.
SCSU has ability to score goals but they’re going against the seventh-best defense in the land in WMU (2.11 goals per game). The Huskies will pull one out but they won’t get the nonconference sweep. Split.
Brian: This series marks the first-ever meetings between the future NCHC combatants. The first period may tell the tale in this matchup as it’s the period the Huskies do the most damage (26 goals scored) and the one in which the Broncos are the stingiest (8 goals allowed) this season.
WMU draws nearly two more penalties per game than its opponents while just the opposite is true for SCSU. Although the St. Cloud State power play is more prolific (18.9 percent) than Western Michigan’s (17.3) the Huskies would be wise to limit the Broncos’ opportunities especially in the absence of Gravel. It feels like a split to me.
Michigan Tech (9-9-1, 6-7-1 WCHA) vs. Michigan State at Great Lakes Invitational — Thursday
Tyler: The Spartans are licking their chops at Josh Robinson’s .881 save percentage and 4.40 goals against average over the past five games coming in. Michigan State has the seventh-best offense in the nation with 3.44 goals per game so its going to score often and I don’t think Tech has the firepower to get in a shootout with the Spartans. MSU wins.
Brian: Don’t read too much into which team scores first in this one as it could not be any more of a non-indicator. MSU is an identical 5-3-1 whether it scores first or not and Tech is 5-5-0 when scoring first and 4-4-1 when its opponent does.
Keeping the score low and carrying a lead into the third period are critical to Michigan Tech’s chances. I like the Huskies in a one-goal or overtime game but I have my doubts about either of those scenarios coming to fruition. Spartans win.
As we approach the dawn of a new calendar year, many of us find ourselves making soon-to-be-broken resolutions of self-improvement and planning a festive night out with family and/or friends. The rest of us will be covering and recapping games with no conference implications and little or no PairWise ramifications for your reading pleasure sometime Sunday afternoon when you roll out of bed.
WCHA teams from top to bottom are making their own resolutions at this moment. All but one are pledging to climb higher on the league ladder in the year to come and to that end have vowed to score more, tighten their defense, improve their special teams or become more disciplined.
Some will succeed in varying degrees while others will most certainly fall short of their goals and that’s what the next two months are all about.
In any case, we wish you all a happy and safe New Year celebration and leave you with our thoughts on the second half of the WCHA season.
Alaska-Anchorage
Overall record: 6-10-2
WCHA record/rank: 3-10-1/11th
USCHO national rank: NR
PairWise rank: NR
Record vs. TUC: 3-10-0
Remaining schedule (16 games, 9 home/7 away): Jan. 13-14 at Michigan Tech; Jan. 20-21 at Wisconsin; Jan. 27-28 vs. Denver; Feb. 3-4 vs. Minnesota-Duluth; Feb. 10-11 vs. Minnesota State; Feb. 17-18 at St. Cloud State; Feb. 24 vs. Alaska; Feb. 25 at Alaska; March 2-3 vs. Bemidji State.
Strength of remaining WCHA schedule (win percentage, record): 0.489, 57-60-16
Conference rank: 10
Strength of remaining overall schedule (win percentage, record): 0.483, 64-69-18
Conference rank: 11
Number of remaining scheduled games vs. TUC: 10
Second-half outlook: After sitting 4-8-2 in the WCHA at this time last year, the Seawolves vaulted to an eighth seed in the WCHA playoff behind an 8-6 second-half surge. UAA parlayed that into a trip to the Final Five after upsetting fifth-seeded Minnesota in Minneapolis. While a repeat of the surge and a return to St. Paul are unlikely, Alaska-Anchorage can, in fact, impact the conference race.
Maybe it has something to do with the Northern Lights, but odd occurrences have a way of happening in Anchorage so Denver, UMD and Bemidji State would be wise to bring their “A” games to “The Last Frontier.” Michigan Tech, against whom the Seawolves hold a .524 all-time winning percentage, may also want to be ready to play when UAA visits Houghton in a couple of weeks.
Tyler’s prediction: 11th
Brian’s prediction: 11th
Bemidji State
Overall record: 9-19-2
WCHA record/rank: 5-7-2/Ninth
USCHO national rank: NR
PairWise rank: 27
Record vs. TUC: 6-9-1
Remaining schedule (16 games, 8 home/8 away): Dec. 30-31 vs. Bowling Green; Jan. 13-14 at Denver; Jan. 27-28 vs. Minnesota State; Feb. 3-4 at Nebraska-Omaha; Feb. 10-11 vs. Colorado College; Feb. 17-18 at Minnesota; Feb. 24-25 vs. Wisconsin; March 2-3 at Alaska-Anchorage.
Strength of remaining WCHA schedule (win percentage, record): 0.508, 60-58-12
Conference rank: tie-8
Strength of remaining overall schedule (win percentage, record): 0.490, 66-69-15
Conference rank: 10
Number of remaining scheduled games vs. TUC: 8
Second-half outlook: Bemidji State’s WCHA record a year ago (4-9-1) was nearly identical to that of Alaska-Anchorage and, although BSU won just four of its final 14 conference games, the 10th-seeded Beavers became another unlikely Final Five entrant with a sweep in Omaha. They followed that up by becoming the last team to defeat Minnesota-Duluth on its way to the national title.
Goaltender Andrew Walsh, a two-time WCHA rookie of the week, is gaining confidence with every start while vets Brad Hunt (4-13–17) and Jordan George (11-6–17) continue to be the catalysts. Despite tough road tests the next two-plus months in Denver, Omaha, Minneapolis and even Anchorage, don’t be surprised if Bemidji State moves up a spot or two down the stretch, which sets up nicely for a potential postseason return trip to Omaha.
Tyler’s prediction: 6th
Brian’s prediction: 8th
Colorado College
Overall record: 11-5-0
WCHA record/rank: 9-5-0/Third
USCHO national rank: 6
PairWise rank: 15
Record vs. TUC: 4-4-0
Remaining schedule (18 games, 11 home/7 away): Dec. 30 vs. Air Force; Dec. 31 vs. Union; Jan. 6-7 vs. Cornell; Jan. 13-14 vs St. Cloud State; Jan. 20-21 at Minnesota; Feb. 3-4 at Denver/vs. Denver; Feb. 10-11 at Bemidji State; Feb. 17-18 vs. Nebraska-Omaha; Feb. 24-25 at Minnesota-Duluth; March 2-3 vs. Michigan Tech.
Strength of remaining WCHA schedule (win percentage, record): 0.567, 68-50-17
Conference rank: 2
Strength of remaining overall schedule (win percentage, record): 0.593, 93-60-25
Conference rank: 1
Number of remaining scheduled games vs. TUC: 16
Second-half outlook: Of those in contention for the conference title, the Tigers face the most daunting task over the season’s final 10 weeks. Eighty-nine percent of CC’s remaining games are against vaunted Teams Under Consideration (TUC) which could easily be a blessing as much as a curse when March rolls around depending, of course, on how the Tigers do.
With eight games (five on the road) against the two teams they trail (UMD and Minnesota) and the two immediately behind them (UNO and Denver) in the WCHA standings, Colorado College will, if nothing else, be battle tested heading into the postseason. CC’s success will hinge on its ability to stay healthy throughout the late-season grind and who, if anyone, steps up between the pipes.
Tyler’s prediction: 3rd
Brian’s prediction: 3rd
Denver
Overall record: 8-7-3
WCHA record/rank: 6-5-3/Fifth
USCHO national rank: 15
PairWise rank: 23
Record vs. TUC: 4-6-3
Remaining schedule (18 games, 10 home/8 away): Dec. 30-31 vs. Union/at Air Force; Jan. 6-7 vs. Alabama-Huntsville; Jan. 13-14 vs. Bemidji State; Jan. 27-28 at Alaska-Anchorage; Feb. 3-4 vs. Colorado College/at Colorado College; Feb. 10-11 vs. Minnesota; Feb. 17-18 at Wisconsin; Feb. 24-25 vs. North Dakota; March 2-3 at Nebraska-Omaha.
Strength of remaining WCHA schedule (win percentage, record): 0.542, 65-54-11
Conference rank: 4
Strength of remaining overall schedule (win percentage, record): 0.511, 84-80-19
Conference rank: 7
Number of remaining scheduled games vs. TUC: 12
Second-half outlook: The time is rapidly approaching for the Pioneers to turn the corner and become the team they were expected to be entering the season. If they don’t, they could find themselves in the unfamiliar position of opening the postseason on the road.
While DU’s overall strength of schedule is tempered by the presence of Alabama-Huntsville, the Pioneers face the fourth-toughest league schedule of the season’s second half and it’s heavily back loaded. The UAH series should allow Denver to rest Jason Zucker, if needed, after his return from the World Junior Championship, and the impending returns of Beau Bennett and goaltender Sam Brittain in late January should bolster the lineup for the stretch run.
Tyler’s prediction: 5th
Brian’s prediction: 5th
Michigan Tech
Overall record: 9-9-1
WCHA record/rank: 6-7-1/tie-Seventh
USCHO national rank: NR
PairWise rank: 30
Record vs. TUC: 2-6-1
Remaining schedule (17 games, 7 home/8 away/2 neutral): Dec. 29-30 vs. Michigan State/vs. Boston College or Michigan at Great Lakes Invitational; Jan. 13-14 vs. Alaska-Anchorage; Jan. 21 vs. Northern Michigan; Jan. 27-28 at Minnesota-Duluth; Feb. 3-4 at Minnesota State; Feb. 10-11 vs. Nebraska-Omaha; Feb. 17-18 at North Dakota; Feb. 24-25 vs. St. Cloud State; March 2-3 at Colorado College.
Strength of remaining WCHA schedule (win percentage, record): 0.508, 59-57-14
Number of remaining scheduled games vs. TUC: 11 ###
Second-half outlook: In our MTU season preview, the health and return to form of Brett Olson and Jordan Baker were listed as keys to the Huskies finishing higher than predicted in the coaches poll (12th). After an injury-plagued 2010-11 season, each has played all 19 games thus far with Olson’s 19 points (6-13–19) leading the team in scoring, Baker second at 15 (4-11–15), and the Huskies sitting tied for seventh in the league standings.
Other than wins and losses, coach Mel Pearson’s impact has been most dramatic in scoring, both offensively and defensively. After allowing over two goals more than it scored in 2010-11, Michigan Tech’s scoring differential is nearly even at only minus-0.14 goals per game.
The Huskies are entering unfamiliar territory as they battle for postseason home ice in the new year and, while we predict they will ultimately come up short, they won’t be a team anyone is eager to host come playoff time.
Tyler’s prediction: 8th
Brian’s prediction: 7th
### Assumes MTU plays Michigan in second game of Great Lakes Invitational
Minnesota
Overall record: 14-5-1
WCHA record/rank: 11-3-0/tie-First
USCHO national rank: 2
PairWise rank: tie-6
Record vs. TUC: 5-2-1
Remaining schedule (17 games, 10 home/7 away): Dec. 30-31 vs. Niagara/vs. Northeastern or Princeton; Jan. 7 vs. Notre Dame; Jan. 13-14 at North Dakota; Jan. 20-21 vs. Colorado College; Jan. 27-28 vs. St. Cloud State/at St. Cloud State; Feb. 10-11 at Denver; Feb. 17-18 vs. Bemidji State; Feb. 24-25 at Nebraska-Omaha; March 2-3 vs. Wisconsin.
Strength of remaining WCHA schedule (win percentage, record): 0.519, 60-55-15
Number of remaining scheduled games vs. TUC: 12 ***
Second-half outlook: Although the Gophers finished a disappointing fifth in the WCHA last year, coach Don Lucia aptly pointed out that his team was 3-2-2 against three of last spring’s Frozen Four participants (UMD, UND and Michigan).
“We weren’t that far away,” said Lucia. “Now we have to find a way just to score that one more goal a game or give up that one less goal a game, and that’s really that fine line from week to week.”
Lucia’s words turned out to be prophetic. Through 14 conference games, Minnesota has done a little of both by increasing its scoring differential over its opponents by 1.18 goals per game over last season (0.46 to 1.64).
Of Minnesota’s final seven WCHA opponents, only St. Cloud State and Nebraska-Omaha are in the top half of the league in both scoring offense and defense, so opportunities are there to capitalize one way or another. UMD’s meager strength of schedule means finishing above the Bulldogs will be difficult but the Gophers shouldn’t fall below second in the league race.
Tyler’s prediction: 2nd
Brian’s prediction: 2nd
*** Assumes Minnesota plays Northeastern in second game of Mariucci Classic
Minnesota-Duluth
Overall record: 12-3-3
WCHA record/rank: 10-2-2/tie-First
USCHO national rank: 1
PairWise rank: 2
Record vs. TUC: 7-3-2
Remaining schedule (18 games, 8 home/10 away): Jan. 6-7 at Western Michigan; Jan. 13-14 at Nebraska-Omaha; Jan. 20-21 vs. Alabama-Huntsville; Jan. 27-28 vs. Michigan Tech; Feb. 3-4 at Alaska-Anchorage; Feb. 10-11 vs. North Dakota; Feb. 17-18 at Minnesota State; Feb. 24-25 vs. Colorado College; March 2-3 at St. Cloud State.
Strength of remaining WCHA schedule (win percentage, record): 0.473, 56-63-12
Conference rank: 12
Strength of remaining overall schedule (win percentage, record): 0.441, 66-86-18
Conference rank: 12
Number of remaining scheduled games vs. TUC: 10
Second-half outlook: There are many reasons the Bulldogs shouldn’t be 12-3-3, ranked No. 1 and tied for the lead in the WCHA standings at this point of the 2011-12 season. The team might’ve felt the pressure to repeat last season’s success without Mike Connolly and Justin Fontaine to help lead the offense. Justin Faulk’s early departure for the NHL left a gap. Or maybe just the idea that UMD rode a hot goalie in Kenny Reiter during the title run.
The Bulldogs are atop the league because guys like J.T. Brown and Travis Oleksuk have been able to step in to fill the voids Connolly and Fontaine left behind. Meanwhile, two-time All-American Jack Connolly’s line with Mike Seidel and Joe Basaraba is producing offense as well. Reiter’s numbers are among the best in the WCHA, too. The Bulldogs have the weakest second-half schedule in the WCHA so expect them to win the regular-season title or be not far behind.
Tyler’s prediction: 1st
Brian’s prediction: 1st
Minnesota State
Overall record: 5-14-1
WCHA record/rank: 2-11-1/12th
USCHO national rank: NR
PairWise rank: NR
Record vs. TUC: 1-11-1
Remaining schedule (16 games, 8 home/8 away): Jan. 6-7 at St. Lawrence; Jan. 13-14 vs. Wisconsin; Jan. 20-21 vs. Nebraska-Omaha; Jan. 27-28 at Bemidji State; Feb. 3-4 vs. Michigan Tech; Feb. 10-11 at Alaska-Anchorage; Feb. 17-18 vs. Minnesota-Duluth; March 2-3 at North Dakota.
Strength of remaining WCHA schedule (win percentage, record): 0.519, 61-56-14
Conference rank: tie-6
Strength of remaining overall schedule (win percentage, record): 0.507, 68-66-14
Conference rank: 8
Number of remaining scheduled games vs. TUC: 10
Second-half outlook: MSU’s injuries buried the team’s chances early, as did below-average goaltending from Austin Lee and horrible goaltending by Phil Cook. Keep an eye on the freshmen skaters, though. There’s some budding talent there. Will they make the Mavericks a WCHA title contender? Not until 2013-14, but they’re something to build on and they can help get the program out of the WCHA cellar, maybe catching more eyes next season.
Tyler’s prediction: 12th
Brian’s prediction: 12th
Nebraska-Omaha
Overall record: 9-8-3
WCHA record/rank: 7-4-3/Fourth
USCHO national rank: NR
PairWise rank: 26
Record vs. TUC: 3-5-2
Remaining schedule (16 games, 10 home/6 away): Dec. 30-31 vs. Quinnipiac; Jan. 13-14 vs. Minnesota-Duluth; Jan. 20-21 at Minnesota State; Feb. 3-4 vs. Bemidji State; Feb. 10-11 at Michigan Tech; Feb. 17-18 at Colorado College; Feb. 24-25 vs. Minnesota; March 2-3 vs. Denver.
Strength of remaining WCHA schedule (win percentage, record): 0.561, 68-52-11
Conference rank: 3
Strength of remaining overall schedule (win percentage, record): 0.570, 79-58-14
Conference rank: 3
Number of remaining scheduled games vs. TUC: 14
Second-half outlook: The Mavericks are a team with issues that need to be figured out quickly if they want to make a run at a home playoff series, starting up front with the forwards. Their lack of depth have been well-documented and coach Dean Blais admitted he might have to shorten his lineup to three forward lines. This all started, of course, when senior forward and former captain, Alex Hudson, was dismissed from the team.
Goaltending has been a little bit of a nightmare, but the UNO defense has bailed them out time and again. The Mavericks need to find a starting goalie to stick with down the stretch. Blais said he’d wait for either John Faulkner, Ryan Massa or Dayn Belfour “to get hot and ride him” down the stretch. Lately, it’s been Massa, who gave up three goals in his last two games.
Keep it together and the Mavericks have a shot against the third-toughest remaining schedule in the WCHA.
Tyler’s prediction: 7th
Brian’s prediction: 6th
North Dakota
Overall record: 9-8-1
WCHA record/rank: 7-7-0/Sixth
USCHO national rank: 18
PairWise rank: tie-21
Record vs. TUC: 6-5-1
Remaining schedule (17 games, 11 home/6 away): Dec. 30-31 vs. Harvard; Jan. 7 vs. Clarkson; Jan. 13-14 vs. Minnesota; Jan. 20-21 at St. Cloud State; Jan. 27-28 vs. Wisconsin; Feb. 10-11 at Minnesota-Duluth; Feb. 17-18 vs. Michigan Tech; Feb. 24-25 at Denver; March 2-3 vs. Minnesota State.
Strength of remaining WCHA schedule (win percentage, record): 0.523, 62-56-15
Conference rank: 5
Strength of remaining overall schedule (win percentage, record): 0.528, 75-66-22
Conference rank: 4
Number of remaining scheduled games vs. TUC: 10
Second-half outlook: The Fighting Sioux need to get more scoring from outside the Danny Kristo/Brock Nelson/Corban Knight line, and if Rocco Grimaldi finally returns to the Sioux lineup from injury, he can just make that happen. The small freshman has arguably the best hands in the league and his shot is rivaled by few. When he gets the puck, everyone on the opposition turns their focus to him and that’s why he adds a whole new dimension to whichever line he plays on.
If Grimaldi returns soon, he could make UND even more successful in the second half than many already expect them to be. Aaron Dell’s performance in goal down the stretch paced the Sioux and will give UND a shot to hang with the best in the league if he keeps that play up.
Tyler’s prediction: 4th
Brian’s prediction: 4th
St. Cloud State
Overall record: 7-9-4
WCHA record/rank: 5-6-3/tie-Seventh
USCHO national rank: NR
PairWise rank: NR
Record vs. TUC: 4-7-2
Remaining schedule (16 games, 9 home/7 away): Dec. 29-30 vs. Western Michigan; Jan. 13-14 at Colorado College; Jan. 20-21 vs. North Dakota; Jan. 27-28 at Minnesota/vs. Minnesota; Feb. 3-4 at Wisconsin; Feb. 17-18 vs. Alaska-Anchorage; Feb. 24-25 at Michigan Tech; March 2-3 vs. Minnesota-Duluth.
Strength of remaining WCHA schedule (win percentage, record): 0.575, 68-49-10
Conference rank: 1
Strength of remaining overall schedule (win percentage, record): 0.583, 77-53-15
Conference rank: 2
Number of remaining scheduled games vs. TUC: 12
Second-half outlook: The Huskies sit in seventh place and they’ll have to play an incredible second half to keep from slipping any further. The easy part of SCSU’s schedule is over and the remaining slate is the toughest any WCHA team has to face.
Perhaps no team in the league has faced more adversity than the Huskies, who lost two captains in the first month of the season; neither is expected to return soon or at all this season. Goaltender Mike Lee underwent hip surgery to repair an injury he suffered in a mid-October practice. SCSU’s leading scorer at the time, Drew LeBlanc, broke his leg against Wisconsin in early November.
Tyler’s prediction: 9th
Brian’s prediction: 10th
Wisconsin
Overall record: 7-9-2
WCHA record/rank: 4-8-2/10th
USCHO national rank: NR
PairWise rank: NR
Record vs. TUC: 4-8-1
Remaining schedule (16 games, 8 home/8 away): Jan. 6-7 vs. Rochester Institute of Technology; Jan. 13-14 at Minnesota State; Jan. 20-21 vs. Alaska-Anchorage; Jan. 27-28 at North Dakota; Feb. 3-4 vs. St. Cloud State; Feb. 17-18 vs. Denver; Feb. 24-25 at Bemidji State; March 2-3 at Minnesota.
Strength of remaining WCHA schedule (win percentage, record): 0.485, 58-62-14
Conference rank: 11
Strength of remaining overall schedule (win percentage, record): 0.493, 66-68-16
Conference rank: 9
Number of remaining scheduled games vs. TUC: 8
Second-half outlook: The Badgers might have an formidable schedule down the stretch but goaltending has been a glaring issue and the penalty kill is awful. Wisconsin can’t expect to be in the fight for a home playoff series if Justin Schultz and Mark Zengerle are forced to carry the load every night offensively. In goal, either Joel Rumpel or Landon Peterson must find a groove soon.
Earlier this week, I looked back at the first half of the season for Hockey East teams. Grades were handed out with a few teams excelling, a few seeming middle of the road and a couple very close to bottoming out.
Now, as the second half of the season is about to begin, here is a look forward at each team to give some perspective in what each team needs to do moving forward to either keep its season successful or, in some cases, turn mediocrity into greatness.
Starting at the bottom of the league, here we go:
Vermont
Oh, Catamounts, where do we start? To think that this season is going to be salvaged might be a bit of a stretch. Vermont did little to show it can contend this season in the first half. If they are to improve, the Catamounts will need help in all areas.
In net, Rob Madore needs to return to the form of old. In too many games he looked pedestrian, making some impressive stops at times but allowing way too many bad goals. Defensively, the team needs to play better in front of him. Blocked shots, attention to detail and not allowing goals in bunches are all areas to work on for the Cats.
More players need to produce offensively. The loss of Chris McCarthy to injury hurt but someone besides Connor Brickley and Sebastian Stalberg needs to contribute.
Massachusetts
The Minutemen have suddenly become one of the best teams in the nation at home. Now the question is how does this translate to playing on the road? Zero losses at the Mullins Center; zero wins on the road. Yes, that equals a record around .500, but is that good enough?
This is a team with a huge upside. T.J. Syner is certainly an all-league player. Michael Pereira shows no sign of a sophomore slump. There is plenty of other talent on this team. The X factor, though, is consistency. There simply hasn’t been consistent night-in, night-out effort.
At the same time, none of the team’s three goaltenders has stepped forward to replace Paul Dainton. Rookie Kevin Boyle has the best record, but a save percentage below .900 and a goals against average just below 3.00 simply isn’t enough in Hockey East. This is the area that needs the most improvement.
New Hampshire
If New Hampshire is to salvage this season, this team needs to believe in itself. The Wildcats are easily the league’s biggest underachievers from the first half. The reasons are many: lack of goaltending, not enough offense at times, inability to play a 60-minute game.
Like UMass, New Hampshire is unable to win on the road, something never associated with the Wildcats for the last two decades. Part of this becomes mental, particularly when a team knows it has the ability to win.
But there is no doubt the area that needs the most improvement is goaltending. Matt DiGirolamo’s goals against has jumped nearly a full goal since last season while his save percentage has dipped below .900. Confidence that your goaltender will stop the puck is a major part of overall team confidence. Right now UNH is lacking both.
Northeastern
Here is a simple note to Northeastern: Pretend like the break didn’t happen. There was no hotter team in the country before the break than the Huskies, riding six straight wins. So what was the difference between the winning streak and the 1-7-2 mark that preceded it?
Well, it starts with defense. The Huskies allowed three or more goals seven times in the first 10 games, five times allowing four or more. In the six wins, the max goals allowed was two.
At the same time, Northeastern’s offense came alive in those six games. Led by a nine-goal outburst at Notre Dame, Northeastern averaged 4.5 goals a game.
It seems like the Huskies may be buying into coach Jim Madigan’s system. Combined with solid starts in goal by Chris Rawlings, this team seems as confident as any in the nation. If that continues, expect Northeastern to earn home ice.
Maine
If I listened to the Maine fans who commented on my latest blog, you would think the Black Bears are meeting expectations. I said that much more was expected of this team preseason, while those who commented from Orono said .500 was where they believed this team would be.
Honestly, I have a hard time believing that. Maine has as much talent as any other team. Plenty of offensive ability, one of the better playmaking defensemen in Will O’Neill and an overall defensive corps most coaches would love to have.
Yes, goaltending is a question mark as neither Dan Sullivan nor Martin Ouellette has proven himself as consistent every night. But that’s something that I, along with most of the coaches in their preseason poll, believe the Black Bears could overcome.
And I still do believe that.
What will it take to turn things around, though? That’s the million dollar question. Obviously it begins with goaltending. Coach Tim Whitehead will need to choose his No. 1 and stick by it. Pulling goaltenders, as happened early in the season, can hurt a goaltender’s confidence. It seems Sullivan will be the No. 1 moving forward. Now it will be his job to play like one.
Providence
The Friars are on pace to return to the postseason for the first time in three years. That, though, likely won’t be enough to satisfy first-year coach Nate Leaman.
If you talk to Leaman, his expectations are high. And though Providence is much improved over last year, he believes there is plenty of room for further improvement.
The team lacks any sort of offensive superstar and has depended on depth in scoring. That needs to continue. Goaltending has been strong as Alex Beaudry has emerged as a true top-tier goaltender. His success will pace this team.
If Providence is to emerge, though, as a top-tier club it will need to be successful away from Schneider Arena. The Friars’ schedule was front-loaded with home games, and eight of the club’s league games in the second half will be on the road. With a 1-3-0 road record in the first half it’s hard to judge success or a lack thereof. But that success in the new year will dictate how far this team goes.
Massachusetts-Lowell
Lowell’s first-half success shocked many. Easy to pin as a potential cellar-dweller once again, suddenly everything turned around under new coach Norm Bazin.
Much of the turnaround can be attributed to goaltending. Doug Carr is a netminder beaming with confidence. He leads Hockey East in every goaltending category, a major step up from a goaltending corps that a year ago was near the bottom in all stats. That absolutely must continue.
At the same time, Lowell’s offense needs to produce. This is a team that likely won’t have a first team all-league forward come season’s end (defenseman Chad Ruhwedel is making his case, though, for first team). Thus Lowell will need three lines that can score goals in the second half.
One thing that has been advantageous for the River Hawks is home ice. Though playing only six games, Lowell packed the Tsongas Center and made it difficult for opponents to play. It is very similar to recent success at home for Merrimack: Winning translates to bigger crowds, which translates to a better atmosphere and home success.
Merrimack
The Warriors’ early success that led to the team’s first No. 1 national ranking was one of the best story lines of the first half of the season. Merrimack, though, learned that with success comes a bigger challenge.
It’s not too far of a stretch to say that the Warriors got caught up in the excitement. A 2-3-1 record after beginning 9-0-1 is proof positive. And one of the glaring problems in that difficult stretch was a lack of discipline.
It’s easy to believe that you’re successful, particularly with how well Merrimack has played for the past season and a half. But that doesn’t mean that discipline can be thrown out the window. Coach Mark Dennehy continues to talk each postgame about penalties, but the team has done little to eliminate them.
You can talk X’s and O’s, consistency and execution. For Merrimack, I think all of those things are in line. But this team must stay out of the penalty box if it’s to maintain the success to which it has become accustomed.
Boston University
No team will return from break facing the challenges that BU will. Besides the inconsistency that, at times, frustrated coach Jack Parker, the Terriers must somehow replace their top scorer (Corey Trivino) and a top-three scorer (Charlie Coyle).
There won’t be any mid-season recruiting for BU. Thus players like Sahir Gill, Alex Chiasson, Wade Megan and Chris Connolly all need to begin producing more goals. Megan is the only player on that list in position to far exceed his offense from a year ago. Now, with goal scoring at a premium, it’s likely these players will get the opportunity to produce and must take advantage.
BU also needs goaltender Kieran Millan to play to his all-league ability each and every night. Soft goals against down the stretch will kill this team.
Boston College
The Eagles may be well-positioned for another regular season title, but given the tight Hockey East standings, that could change at any minute.
BC’s offense has been strong all year, already boasting three double-digit goal scorers. Players like Kevin Hayes, Bill Arnold and rookie Johnny Gaudreau all had great first semesters and Chris Kreider continues to seem a man among boys. Obviously, that needs to continue.
If there is one question mark entering the second semester it is goaltending. Parker Milner started the year impressively but struggled down the stretch. Rookie Brian Billett was impressive in four starts before the break. So the question is whether BC has two solid options or a goaltending dilemma. The former in the second half could lead to another national title; the latter could mean disaster.
After a brief look back at the first part of the season, the holiday break is also a time to look ahead as teams play in some New Year’s tournaments and then get into the heart of their conference schedule.
Here’s a team-by-team rundown:
Air Force
Record: 9-4-2, 8-2-1 AHA
Team MVP so far: Junior Kyle De Laurell is seventh nationally and tops in the conference in points per game (1.47).
Pleasant surprise: When go-to goaltender Jason Torf went down early in the season with a groin injury, senior Stephen Caple was called on and has responded well, posting a 2.09 goals against average. Now that Torf is getting healthy, coach Frank Serratore has a problem on his hands, albeit a good one.
He told the media that he was going to stick with Caple for now, starting him this Friday against Colorado College. “We owe it to him,” Serratore said. “He’s been solid. We’ll need to step it up as a team in the second half.”
Outlook: The Falcons are ruling the roost right now, and their battle with local rivals Colorado College and Denver this weekend will be a good tune-up for the rest of their schedule, which is exclusively made up of AHA games after that.
Air Force is off to its second-best start in school history, but has played only four league road games so far, making just two trips east. But the Falcons have five two-game road series left, and those will make or break their quest for the regular season title.
American International
Record: 3-14-2, 2-10 AHA
Team MVP so far: Goaltender Ben Meisner has won just three games this season, but has kept AIC in several contests. He has a .917 save percentage. Two of his three wins have been shutouts.
Pleasant surprise: AIC’s penalty kill is third in the league, stopping opponents 90.6 percent of the time.
Outlook: The Yellow Jackets had a decent start to the season, highlighted by wins over Robert Morris and Brown. But AIC has lost its last six games and is in the midst of a 31-day layoff that won’t see the Yellow Jackets return to play until Jan. 10. AIC needs to shake the rust off quickly and get Meisner more goal support if it wants to turn things around.
Army
Record: 1-8-6, 1-6-4 AHA
Team MVP so far: Junior forward Andy Starczewski leads the team in goals (six) and points (nine).
Pleasant surprise: Rookie goaltender Rob Tadazak, coming off an MVP season in juniors, has adjusted quickly to college hockey, posting a .925 save percentage in six outings.
Outlook: Like several teams in Atlantic Hockey, the Black Knights are having problems scoring goals. The second half of the season will see them playing their remaining 16 conference games, including hosting a two-game series with Air Force and an exhibition with the Canadian Royal Military College after a five-year hiatus. The series dates back over 75 years.
Bentley
Record: 5-8-3, 5-3-2 AHA
Team MVP so far: Sophomore goaltender Branden Komm leads the league in goals against average (1.61).
Pleasant surprise: The Falcons were picked to finish 10th this season but are currently tied for sixth with games in hand on most teams ahead of them. The main reason is their defense, best in the league (2.00 goals allowed per game).
Outlook: Bentley has been able to take at least one point each weekend in league play, and still has 17 conference games to play, tied with Holy Cross for the most points still on the table. The Falcons were expected to struggle to score goals, and, like many AHA teams, haven’t been an offensive juggernaut. But if they keep allowing just two goals a game, they’re going to be in every contest.
Canisius
Record: 4-10-3, 4-5-2 AHA
Team MVP so far: Sophomore Kyle Gibbons leads the team in goals (six) and assists (nine).
Pleasant surprise: Last season Dan Morrison saw the majority of time in net, but this year he’s split duties with sophomore Tony Capobianco and it’s worked out well, with both in the league’s top 10 for goals against average and save percentage.
Outlook: The Golden Griffins were offensively challenged during the first half of the season (sound familiar?) averaging just 1.91 goals per game, tied with Army for last in the conference. Canisius has a trip to Army to open conference play in the second half of the season, but after is home for at least one game each weekend for the remainder of the season.
Connecticut
Record: 5-9-2, 4-6-1 AHA
Team MVP so far: Sophomore Brant Harris has 10 goals, more than twice as any other Huskies player.
Pleasant surprise: Connecticut’s power play is tops in the league, converting a whopping 29.7 percent of the time. The only bad news about that stat is UConn has had the fewest power plays of any team in the conference (just 37 attempts in 11 games).
Outlook: After successive years of improvement, UConn is off to a slightly slower start so far this season. But the Huskies have the talent to move up in the standings in the second half. Last year’s strong rookie class has shown no signs of a sophomore slump, and goaltender Garrett Bartus continues to be one of the best in the league. Only a junior and playing just half of his freshman season, Bartus is just 10 saves away from setting the all-time saves record in UConn’s Division I era.
Holy Cross
Record: 8-7, 6-4 AHA
Team MVP so far: Yet another sophomore MVP, winger Adam Schmidt leads the team with seven goals.
Pleasant surprise: Senior Andrew Cox is on pace to have his best season ever. He’s currently leading the team in scoring with 13 points.
Outlook: The Crusaders are 6-1 at home so far and have eight more conference games to go at the Hart Center, including a big two-game showdown with first-place Air Force the first weekend in January. Rookie Matt Ginn has played the majority of time in net and if he can get his save percentage up a bit, Holy Cross has the offensive tools to get near the top of the standings.
Mercyhurst
Record: 8-8-2, 7-2-2 AHA
Team MVP so far: Senior goalie Max Strang has played in all 18 games this season after making a total of 10 appearances his first three years. He’s tied for second in the league in save percentage (.947).
Pleasant surprise: Rookie Nardo Nagtzaam is second in the league in points per game (0.81) for rookies and leads the Lakers in scoring with 13 points.
Outlook: Picked to finish seventh, the Lakers have ridden Strang, a talented rookie class and a strong power play to a tie for second place at the holiday break. Mercyhurst has a tough road schedule down the stretch, playing just three of its final 14 conference games at home.
Niagara
Record: 5-5-6, 4-2-5 AHA
Team MVP so far: Sophomore (yep, another one) Scott Arnold has seven goals and 12 points, tops on the team in both categories.
Pleasant surprise: After a strong freshman season in which he scored 20 points, junior Marc Zanette saw his production drop to just seven points last season. But he’s back on track in 2011-12 with 10 points in 16 games, tied for second on the team.
Outlook: The Purple Eagles are on a hot streak right now, undefeated in their last six games. If it can turn more ties (six so far, more games than it has won or lost) into wins, Niagara will stay in the top four. After participating in the Mariucci Classic this weekend, the Purple Eagles will be home for 10 of their final 16 games, all in conference play.
Rochester Institute of Technology
Record: 8-6-2, 7-4-2 AHA
Team MVP so far: Senior goalie Shane Madolora is 7-3-1 with a .925 save percentage.
Pleasant surprise: Sophomore Mike Colavecchia had six goals his rookie year but already has five this season and is tied for the team lead in scoring with 12 points so far.
Outlook: The Tigers usually have one of the top offenses in the league but have struggled this season, averaging just 2.31 goals a game. They return from the break with four tough non-conference games (Ferris State, Lake Superior State and Wisconsin twice) before returning to a league schedule that has them on the road for seven of their next nine conference games.
Robert Morris
Record: 9-6-2, 7-2-2 AHA
Team MVP so far: Freshman Cody Wydo leads the team in goals with eight, including three game-winners.
Pleasant surprise: Wydo leads a strong rookie class that is making up for the departure of all-stars Denny Urban and Nathan Longpre. Senior Brooks Ostergard is going out on top, posting the best numbers of his career (2,80 goals against average, .931 save percentage).
Outlook: The Colonials are riding a school-record eight-game unbeaten streak. They have a big game this weekend against Ohio State at the Consol Energy Center in downtown Pittsburgh before moving exclusively into conference play after that, culminating in a regular season-ending showdown at home against Air Force.
Sacred Heart
Record: 1-16-1, 0-10-1 AHA
Team MVP so far: Senior forward Matt Gingera leads the Pioneers in goals (eight) and is tied for the lead in points (13).
Pleasant surprise: Rookie Brian Sheehan is off to a good start with five goals and eight assists.
Outlook: The Pioneers are having a decent year offensively in a league that’s struggling in general to score goals. But on the defensive side, the news is bleak. The Pioneers are averaging 5.18 goals allowed per game, almost two full goals a game worse than the next closest team in the league. There’s still plenty of hockey to play and Sacred Heart has shown, once, that it can beat a good team (Yale). More of that needs to happen for the Pioneers to avoid the basement.
Last games of the calendar year. May 2012 be kinder to me in the prognostication department, among other departments. Season to date: 65-44-14 (.585)
This week
There are tournaments, nonconference series, two single nonconference games and one single exhibition game. I’m not calling the exhibition game. Catamount Cup
Two CCHA teams, Ferris State and Lake Superior, are featured in this year’s Catamount Cup, hosted by Vermont and played Dec. 29-30 in Burlington, Vt. RIT rounds out the field of FSU, LSSU and Vermont.
On Dec. 29, it’s FSU vs. RIT at 4:00 p.m., LSSU vs. Vermont at 7:05 p.m. On Dec. 30, it’s LSSU vs. RIT at 4:00 p.m., FSU vs. Vermont at 7:05 p.m. All four games in the tournament can be viewed free online.
The Bulldogs (11-6-1) ended the first half of the season on a slight skid against opponents ahead of them in the rankings, having been swept by Western Michigan Dec. 2-3, and splitting a pair of 4-1 games with Notre Dame the following weekend, losing the second game.
The Lakers (11-7-2) also went 1-3-0 in December, losing two to Ohio State Dec. 2-3 and splitting with Northern Michigan the following weekend, losing 2-1 and winning 6-3.
RIT (8-6-2), currently in second place in Atlantic Hockey, went 3-2-0 in December, ending the first half with a 4-0 loss to Robert Morris. Sophomore Michael Colavecchia (5-7–12) and senior Cameron Burt (4-8–12) lead the Tigers in scoring; junior Shane Madolora (2.18 GAA, .925 SV%) has seen most of the time in the RIT net.
Vermont (3-12-1), currently in last place in Hockey East, went 0-4-0 in December, swept by Maine followed by losses to Merrimack and St. Lawrence. On Tuesday of this week, the Catamounts lost in exhibition to the Russian Red Stars, 6-1. The Catamounts are led in scoring by junior Sebastian Stålberg (7-8–15) although sophomore Connor Brickley (8-2–10) leads the team in goals; senior Rob Madore (4.22, .857) has played 12 games for Vermont. No. 11 FSU vs. RIT and Vermont. FSU is facing each of these opponents for the first time. I’m banking on the Bulldogs’ defense and goaltending, although I have a bad feeling about RIT both nights. Picks: FSU 3-2, 4-2 No. 16 LSSU vs. Vermont and RIT. The Lakers and Cats met in 2001, when LSSU came away from Burlington as the Catamount Cup champs. LSSU and RIT have never met. Again, I’m banking on goaltending here and the confidence of the low-key team in front of Kevin Kapalka. Picks: LSSU 4-2, 4-2 Great Lakes Invitational Tournament
The traditional field of Michigan, Michigan State and Michigan Tech is graced by Boston College this year in Detroit’s Joe Louis Arena. I’m glad I’m one of the USCHO crew covering this one, especially since the only game being televised is Thursday night’s match between Michigan and Boston College. You may watch free video stream of the nontelevised games, thanks to the Huskies.
The Wolverines (9-8-3) snapped a seven-game winless streak with a 1-0 win over Alaska Dec. 3, after dropping the opener in that series the night before. They finished the first half with a win and tie against Michigan State Dec. 9-10.
The Spartans (10-6-2) were 2-1-1 in December, having swept Bowling Green the weekend before that loss and tie vs. Michigan.
Michigan Tech (9-9-1), currently tied for sixth in the WCHA standings, went 1-4-0 in December, the lone win coming in overtime against Minnesota Dec. 9. Three Huskies — senior Brett Olson and freshmen Tanner Kero and Blake Pietila — have six goals each, with Olson (6-13–19) leading the team in scoring, but junior Milos Gordic leads the team in goals with seven; senior Josh Robinson (2.72, .914) has played 16 games for MTU this season.
Boston College (12-6-0) tops the Hockey East standings, and the Eagles finished the first half with a 2-2-0 record in December, splitting a series with Boston University Dec. 2-3 before beating Providence Dec. 6 and losing to Massachusetts-Lowell by a goal Dec. 9. The Eagles have three players with double-digit goals: junior Chris Kreider (12-11–23), sophomore Bill Arnold (11-9–20) and senior Barry Almeida (10-5–15). No. 14 MSU vs. MTU. This is the first game of the tournament, at 4:05 p.m. Dec. 29. The Spartans have won 12 of the last 13 meetings between these teams. While the Huskies are much improved under first-year head coach Mel Pearson, I think the Spartans are more improved under first-year head coach Tom Anastos. Pick: MSU 4-2. No. 3 BC vs. No. 20 UM. This is the second game of the tournament, at 7:35 p.m. Dec. 29. Not only are the Wolverines struggling this season, but they do not fare well against teams with “Boston” in their names. I would be shocked if Michigan were to win this. Pick: BC 4-2 Consolation and title games. These are at 4:05 p.m. and 7:35 p.m., respectively, Dec. 30. Obviously, I’m predicting that UM and MTU will meet in the first game, MSU and BC in the second. Picks: UM 4-3, BC 3-2 BGSU at BSU. The Falcons (6-11-3) are looking for their first win since Nov. 12, although their current seven-game winless streak includes two ties. The Beavers (9-9-2) are in seventh place in the WCHA. BSU went 4-1-1 in December, finishing on a three-game win streak that included a sweep of Alabama-Huntsville Dec. 16-17. Junior Jordan George (11-6–17) leads the Beavers in goals and is tied with senior Brad Hunt (4-13–17) in scoring. Senior Dan Bakala (.287, .905) and freshmen Andrew Walsh (1.98, .932) have both played this season. This is a Friday-Saturday series, with games beginning at 7:05 p.m. local time. The teams have never met. Picks: BSU 3-2, 3-1 No. 9 BU vs. No. 5 ND. Boston University (10-5-1), currently in second place in Hockey East, went 3-1-0 in December, finishing the first half with one win each against New Hampshire and Maine. The Terriers are led in both scoring and goal production by senior Corey Trivino (13-4–17); senior Kieran Millan (2.68, .917) has played 14 games. After skidding through the first three games of December, the Fighting Irish (11-6-3) won their final game of the first half Dec. 10, during a weekend in which they split a pair of 4-1 games with Ferris State. The Terriers are 3-1-1 all-time vs. ND. This game is Saturday at 7:05 p.m., and it’s carried by Versus. Pick: BU 4-2 No. 4 OSU vs. RMU. The Buckeyes (13-4-1) went 3-1-0 in December, with a split against Miami Dec. 9-10. The Colonials (9-6-2) are currently tied for second place in Atlantic Hockey. RMU rides an eight-game unbeaten streak (6-0-2) into this game at the Console Energy Center in Pittsburgh Friday night; the Colonials ended the first half with a 4-0 win over RIT. Senior Cody Crichton (3-12–15) leads RMU in scoring, but freshman Cody Wydo has the most goals for RMU (8); senior Brooks Ostergard (2.44, .931) has played 11 games this season, but junior Eric Levine (2.52, .923) started as recently as Dec. 3. The Buckeyes lost to the Colonials in Columbus, 4-3, Oct. 15, 2010. This game begins at 7:35 p.m. Pick: OSU 3-2 No. 8 WMU vs. SCSU. The Broncos (9-4-5) have a five-game unbeaten streak (3-0-2) dating back to Nov. 22 heading into this two-game series. They finished the first half with a tie and win against Bowling Green. The Huskies (7-9-4), tied for sixth in the WCHA, snapped a six-game winless streak (0-3-3) with a win over Denver Dec. 17. Junior Ben Hanowski (12-10–22) is SCSU’s leading scorer; freshman Ryan Faragher (2.91, .907) has played 15 games for the Huskies. This is a Thursday-Friday series, with games beginning at 7:05 p.m. local time. These teams have never met. Picks: WMU 3-2, 4-2 Russian Red Stars vs. NMU. I’m not picking this one, as I said. However, if you want to read a little more about the Red Stars, read Dave Saunders’ article from last week.
Team USA ran into a hot goaltender on Wednesday afternoon at the World Junior Championship and because of that may be on the hot seat.
The U.S. plastered Finland goaltender Sami Aittokallio with 39 shots, but ran into a brick wall. At the other end of the ice, U.S. goaltender John Gibson couldn’t stop the Finnish attack and allowed the final three goals of the game as the Americans fell, 4-1, and now are at risk of not advancing to the medal round with two pool play game remaining.
Brandon Saad scored the only goal for the Americans early in the third period to tie the game, 1-1, but Finland broke the tie later in the frame scoring twice in 29 seconds and adding a dagger with its final goal with 3:33 remaining.
“I was happy to see us come back early in the third period,” said Team USA coach Dean Blais in a news release. “But we just couldn’t get enough going and Finland’s goalie played well.”
After the first two periods, Finland had a 1-0 lead despite Team USA holding a 24-9 shot advantage.
The U.S. tied the score, 1-1, just 19 seconds into the third period. Off of a faceoff win by Charlie Coyle, Emerson Etem located the puck and flicked a centering pass across the slot. The pass connected with Saad, who tipped the puck past Aittokallio.
The loss drops the Americans to 1-1-0-0 in pool play. They will face the Czech Republic on Friday before finishing pool play on Saturday against host Canada. The only way to guarantee advancement to the medal round is to win both games. It is possible the U.S. could advance by winning one of the two games, but would be the second- or third-place team and need three victories in the medal round to capture the gold.