Let’s put the bracket prediction down first, and then we’ll explain how we got there after that.<\/p>\n
My predicted NCAA tournament bracket is as follows:<\/p>\n
West Regional (St. Paul, Minn.):<\/b>
\n14 Western Michigan vs. 4 North Dakota
\n9 Boston University vs. 8 Minnesota<\/p>\n
Midwest Regional (Green Bay, Wis.):<\/b>
\n13 Cornell vs. 2 Michigan
\n11 Denver vs. 6 Ferris State<\/p>\n
East Regional (Bridgeport, Conn.):<\/b>
\n15 Michigan State vs. 3 Union
\n12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 Miami<\/p>\n
Northeast Regional (Worcester, Mass.):<\/b>
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 Boston College
\n10 Maine vs. 7 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n
How did we get there?<\/p>\n
Here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the other autobids that are not in the top 16:<\/p>\n
1 Boston College
\n2 Michigan
\n3 Union
\n4 North Dakota
\n5 Miami
\n6 Ferris State
\n7 Minnesota-Duluth
\n8 Minnesota
\n9t Boston University
\n9t Maine
\n11 Denver
\n12t Massachusetts-Lowell
\n12t Cornell
\n14 Western Michigan
\n15t Michigan State
\n15t Northern Michigan
\n15t Merrimack
\n22t Air Force<\/p>\n
Autobids:<\/p>\n
Atlantic Hockey:<\/b> Air Force
\nCCHA:<\/b> Western Michigan
\nECAC Hockey:<\/b> Union
\nHockey East:<\/b> Boston College
\nWCHA:<\/b> North Dakota<\/p>\nStep one<\/h4>\n
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament. <\/p>\n
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add any autobids not in the top 16 of the PairWise. The only team that is not is Air Force.<\/p>\n
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.<\/p>\n
Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n
1 Boston Colege
\n2 Michigan
\n3 Union
\n4 North Dakota
\n5 Miami
\n6 Ferris State
\n7 Minnesota-Duluth
\n8 Minnesota
\n9 Boston University
\n10 Maine
\n11 Denver
\n12 Massachusetts-Lowell
\n13 Cornell
\n14 Western Michigan
\n15 Michigan State
\n16 Air Force<\/p>\n
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n
No. 1 Seeds — Boston College, Michigan, Union, North Dakota
\nNo. 2 Seeds — Miami, Ferris State, Minnesota-Duluth, Minnesota
\nNo. 3 Seeds — Boston University, Maine, Denver, Massachusetts-Lowell
\nNo. 4 Seeds — Cornell, Western Michigan, Michigan State, Air Force<\/p>\n
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. <\/p>\n
We now place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites. <\/p>\n
No. 1 Boston College is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
\nNo. 2 Michigan is placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.
\nNo. 3 Union is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
\nNo. 4 North Dakota is placed in the West Regional in St. Paul.<\/p>\n
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible. <\/p>\n
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/I><\/b> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.<\/p>\n
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.<\/p>\n
We have to place the host institution first, so we place Minnesota first in St. Paul.<\/p>\n
So therefore:<\/p>\n
No. 2 seeds<\/i> <\/p>\n
No. 8 Minnesota is placed in No. 4 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 7 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in No. 1 Boston College’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 6 Ferris State is placed in No. 2 Michigan’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 5 Miami is placed in No. 3 Union’s regional, the East Regional.<\/p>\n
No. 3 seeds<\/i> <\/p>\n
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n
Therefore:<\/p>\n
No. 9 Boston University is placed in No. 8 Minnesota’s regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 10 Maine is placed in No. 7 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 11 Denver is placed in No. 6 Ferris State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 12 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in No. 5 Miami’s regional, the East Regional. <\/p>\n
No. 4 seeds<\/i> <\/p>\n
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc. <\/p>\n
No. 16 Air Force is sent to No. 1 Boston College’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 15 Michigan State is sent to No. 2 Michigan’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 14 Western Michigan is sent to No. 3 Union’s regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 13 Cornell is sent to No. 4 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.<\/p>\n
The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n
West Regional (St. Paul):
\n13 Cornell vs. 4 North Dakota
\n9 Boston University vs. 8 Minnesota<\/p>\n
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
\n15 Michigan State vs. 2 Michigan
\n11 Denver vs. 6 Ferris State<\/p>\n
East Regional (Bridgeport):
\n14 Western Michigan vs. 3 Union
\n12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 Miami<\/p>\n
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 Boston College
\n10 Maine vs. 7 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have one, Michigan State vs. Michigan. We swap Michigan State with Cornell.<\/p>\n
West Regional (St. Paul):
\n15 Michigan State vs. 4 North Dakota
\n9 Boston University vs. 8 Minnesota<\/p>\n
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
\n13 Cornell vs. 2 Michigan
\n11 Denver vs. 6 Ferris State<\/p>\n
East Regional (Bridgeport):
\n14 Western Michigan vs. 3 Union
\n12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 Miami<\/p>\n
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 Boston College
\n10 Maine vs. 7 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n
Looks about right, doesn’t it? Let’s look at bracket integrity.<\/p>\n
Within each regional, it is pretty shot. We don’t have the perfect matchup because of where Minnesota fell, but that’s OK. We try to maintain the best semblance of what we have in the first-round games.<\/p>\n
This means that we try to align 1 vs. 16, 7 vs. 10, etc.<\/p>\n
I see where we can swap Michigan State and Western Michigan to have a bracket with truer integrity.<\/p>\n
West Regional (St. Paul):
\n14 Western Michigan vs. 4 North Dakota
\n9 Boston University vs. 8 Minnesota<\/p>\n
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
\n13 Cornell vs. 2 Michigan
\n11 Denver vs. 6 Ferris State<\/p>\n
East Regional (Bridgeport):
\n15 Michigan State vs. 3 Union
\n12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 Miami<\/p>\n
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 Boston College
\n10 Maine vs. 7 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n
After that switch, I think the bracket integrity within the first-round games look good to me.<\/p>\n
Now let’s look at attendance issues.<\/p>\n
Green Bay looks a little iffy at the moment. It would be great to get Minnesota-Duluth there. Can we do that?<\/p>\n
If we do switch Minnesota-Duluth there, that means we have to move Denver out. And the only place Denver can go is East. With four Western teams in the second-seeded band, you create a regional in the East with three Western teams and one Eastern team.<\/p>\n
So basically you swap one attendance issue for another. So we leave Minnesota-Duluth where it is.<\/p>\n
How about trying to get North Dakota to Green Bay? That only means that you swap the Michigan-Cornell matchup with the North Dakota-Western Michigan matchup. At the same time, you create a potential 2-8 in St. Paul and potential 4-6 in Green Bay. Not a bad proposition.<\/p>\n
Michigan is flying either way, but North Dakota would fly to Green Bay and bus to St. Paul.<\/p>\n
Let’s see what it would look like on paper.<\/p>\n
West Regional (St. Paul):
\n13 Cornell vs. 2 Michigan
\n9 Boston University vs. 8 Minnesota<\/p>\n
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
\n14 Western Michigan vs. 4 North Dakota
\n11 Denver vs. 6 Ferris State<\/p>\n
East Regional (Bridgeport):
\n15 Michigan State vs. 3 Union
\n12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 Miami<\/p>\n
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 Boston College
\n10 Maine vs. 7 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n
I’ll wait on making this decision.<\/p>\n
One other consideration would be to swap Boston University with Massachusetts-Lowell. The only consideration here would be attendance and the notion of “deservedness” to stay closer to home.<\/p>\n
BU did make the Hockey East final four, whereas Massachusetts-Lowell did not.<\/p>\n
But this messes up our nice bracket integrity in the 2-3 seeded band, so I don’t think I’ll do that.<\/p>\n
So we’re back to the North Dakota and Michigan swapping issue.<\/p>\n
It’s not a matter of keeping one team closer, as both teams would be going farther away. If we wanted to keep North Dakota closer, we could also make the argument that North Dakota won its tournament whereas Michigan did not.<\/p>\n
So it’s purely an attendance issue.<\/p>\n
In the end, I can’t see it breaking that way.<\/p>\n
So the final projected bracket is:<\/p>\n
West Regional (St. Paul):
\n14 Western Michigan vs. 4 North Dakota
\n9 Boston University vs. 8 Minnesota<\/p>\n
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
\n13 Cornell vs. 2 Michigan
\n11 Denver vs. 6 Ferris State<\/p>\n
East Regional (Bridgeport):
\n15 Michigan State vs. 3 Union
\n12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 Miami<\/p>\n
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 Boston College
\n10 Maine vs. 7 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n
We’ll see what the committee comes out with on Sunday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Let’s put the bracket prediction down first, and then we’ll explain how we got there after that. My predicted NCAA tournament bracket is as follows: West Regional (St. Paul, Minn.): 14 Western Michigan vs. 4 North Dakota 9 Boston University vs. 8 Minnesota Midwest Regional (Green Bay, Wis.): 13 Cornell vs. 2 Michigan 11 Denver […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":140328,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[947],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n