{"id":127120,"date":"2021-03-18T16:30:20","date_gmt":"2021-03-18T21:30:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/?p=127120"},"modified":"2021-03-18T18:45:37","modified_gmt":"2021-03-18T23:45:37","slug":"bracketology-with-selection-sunday-around-the-corner-taking-one-last-stab-at-how-the-ncaa-hockey-tournament-field-will-look","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2021\/03\/18\/bracketology-with-selection-sunday-around-the-corner-taking-one-last-stab-at-how-the-ncaa-hockey-tournament-field-will-look\/","title":{"rendered":"Bracketology: With Selection Sunday around the corner, taking one last stab at how the NCAA hockey tournament field will look"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>
Minnesota goalie Jack LaFontaine has the Gophers in the NCAA tournament after winning the Big Ten tournament earlier this week (photo: Jim Rosvold).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

We\u2019re inching ever so close to Selection Sunday so let\u2019s take another look at Bracketology.<\/p>\n

Right now, there are just nine college hockey games remaining after the NCHC (North Dakota) and Big Ten (Minnesota) crowned their champions. Hockey East has whittled their field to two teams, ECAC is down to three and WCHA and AHA still have their final four to be played.<\/p>\n

If you haven\u2019t read Bracketology to date, read last week\u2019s to familiarize yourself with the NCAA\u2019s memo on how the field will be selected<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

To cut down to the length, Jayson and Jim are simply going to walk through our process and develop our current NCAA regional field, beginning this week with Jayson:<\/p>\n

Jayson: Let\u2019s take a look at who I think is in the field already. These are my locks. This week, I have 12 of them.<\/p>\n

AIC
\nWisconsin
\nMinnesota
\nMichigan
\nQuinnipiac
\nBoston College
\nMassachusetts
\nNorth Dakota
\nSt. Cloud State
\nMinnesota Duluth
\nMinnesota State
\nBemidji State<\/p>\n

Let me skip ahead and look at the teams that need to win its conference tournament in order to get in. Some of these teams are also on the bubble.<\/p>\n

Army
\nNiagara
\nCanisius
\nSt Lawrence
\nColgate
\nUMass Lowell
\nLake Superior State
\nNorthern Michigan<\/p>\n

If any of these teams win its tournament, they will grab the autobid and one of the four bubble spots available \u2013 there are four possible autobids available here.<\/p>\n

Now let\u2019s look at the true bubble teams. I count nine of them.<\/p>\n

Army West Point
\nNotre Dame
\nBoston University
\nProvidence
\nConnecticut
\nDenver
\nOmaha
\nBowling Green
\nLake Superior State<\/p>\n

The only teams left playing are Army and Lake Superior \u2013 win and in. Simple for it. But, a loss in the semifinal and I find it hard for Army to get in, while Lake Superior still has a chance.<\/p>\n

I want to apply some numbers to what I am looking at here. Let\u2019s take a look at some of the records of these teams against locks or bubble teams that are above them in seedings or standings.<\/p>\n

Notre Dame (0-3-1 vs Wisconsin, 2-2 vs Minnesota, 2-2 vs Michigan)<\/p>\n

Omaha (2-4-0 vs North Dakota, 1-1 vs SCSU, 0-1-1 vs UMD)<\/p>\n

Denver (2-5 vs NoDak, 0-2 vs SCSU, 0-2 vs UMD)<\/p>\n

LSSU (0-2 vs Minnesota State, 1-2-1 vs Bemidji (WCHA Semi coming), 2-0 vs BG)<\/p>\n

Bowling Green (0-2 vs Minnesota State, 1-3 vs Bemidji St, 0-2 vs LSSU)<\/p>\n

BU (1-1 vs BC, 2-0 vs UMass)<\/p>\n

UConn (1-2-1 vs BC, 0-1 vs BU, 0-2-1 vs UMass, 2-2 vs Prov)<\/p>\n

Providence (0-2 vs BC, 0-2-2 vs UMass, 1-1 vs BU, 2-2 vs UConn)<\/p>\n

Army (1-3 vs AIC)<\/p>\n

Let me eliminate some teams to start.<\/p>\n

Bowling Green has a record of 1-7-0 against Minnesota State, Bemidji State and Lake Superior.<\/p>\n

Connecticut has a record of 1-5-2 against Boston College, Boston University and Massachusetts.<\/p>\n

Providence has a record of 1-5-2 against Boston College, Boston University and Massachusetts.<\/p>\n

Army is 1-3 against AIC.<\/p>\n

All other teams, except Lake Superior, have at least two wins against the top two teams in the conference.<\/p>\n

Lake Superior has one win against Bemidji State, but is still playing. Thus, I leave them on the bubble.<\/p>\n

I would eliminate those four at this time.<\/p>\n

That leaves five teams:<\/p>\n

Notre Dame
\nBoston University
\nDenver
\nOmaha
\nLake Superior State<\/p>\n

For the four spots that are left.<\/p>\n

How about their records versus the top teams?<\/p>\n

Notre Dame (0-3-1 vs Wisconsin, 2-2 vs Minnesota, 2-2 vs Michigan)<\/p>\n

Boston University (1-1 vs BC, 2-0 vs UMass)<\/p>\n

Denver (2-5 vs North Dakota, 0-2 vs SCSU, 0-2 vs UMD)<\/p>\n

Omaha (2-4-0 vs North Dakota, 1-1 vs SCSU, 0-1-1 vs UMD)<\/p>\n

Lake Superior (0-2 vs Minnesota State, 1-2-1 vs Bemidji (with WCHA Semi to go))<\/p>\n

Right off the bat I will call Boston University, with a record of 3-1-0 against BC and UMass, at the top of this list.<\/p>\n

That leaves three spots.<\/p>\n

Denver and Omaha are the next two teams on my list, as both have two wins over North Dakota, Omaha with a win over St. Cloud and a tie against UMD, but a loss to Denver in the NCHC Quarterfinals. That gives Omaha the edge over Denver.<\/p>\n

That leaves one spot.<\/p>\n

Neither Notre Dame or Lake Superior have a win over the top team in the conference.<\/p>\n

But, Lake Superior is still playing. A win over Bemidji State will give them a 2-2-1 record against them, matching Notre Dame\u2019s 2-2 against Minnesota. But then, it gives them a chance to take on Minnesota State in the Championship.<\/p>\n

Notre Dame though has a 2-2 record against Michigan, who I have as in the tournament while Lake Superior doesn\u2019t have any more games against teams that will be in the tournament.<\/p>\n

So, I have to give the slight edge here, as of today, to Notre Dame.<\/p>\n

My ranking of the five bubble teams:<\/p>\n

Boston University
\nDenver
\nOmaha
\nNotre Dame
\nLake Superior State<\/p>\n

If there are no surprises from autobids, my 16 teams are:<\/p>\n

AIC
\nWisconsin
\nMinnesota
\nMichigan
\nQuinnipiac
\nBoston College
\nMassachusetts
\nNorth Dakota
\nSt. Cloud State
\nMinnesota Duluth
\nMinnesota State
\nBemidji State
\nBoston University
\nOmaha
\nDenver
\nNotre Dame<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s rank the teams.<\/p>\n

My top four teams are:<\/p>\n

North Dakota
\nBoston College
\nMinnesota State
\nMinnesota<\/p>\n

My second band includes:<\/p>\n

Wisconsin
\nSt. Cloud State
\nQuinnipiac
\nMinnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

My third band includes:<\/p>\n

Michigan
\nMassachusetts
\nBemidji State
\nBoston University<\/p>\n

My fourth band includes:<\/p>\n

Omaha
\nDenver
\nNotre Dame
\nAIC<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s bracket.<\/p>\n

Fargo \u2013 North Dakota
\nBridgeport \u2013 Boston College
\nAlbany \u2013 Minnesota
\nLoveland \u2013 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Second Band:<\/p>\n

Fargo \u2013 Wisconsin
\nBridgeport \u2013 Quinnipiac
\nAlbany \u2013 St. Cloud State
\nLoveland \u2013 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Third Band:<\/p>\n

Fargo \u2013 Bemidji State
\nBridgeport \u2013 Boston University
\nAlbany \u2013 Massachusetts
\nLoveland \u2013 Michigan<\/p>\n

Fourth Band<\/p>\n

Fargo \u2013 Notre Dame
\nBridgeport \u2013 AIC
\nAlbany \u2013 Omaha
\nLoveland \u2013 Denver<\/p>\n

My brackets:<\/p>\n

Fargo<\/p>\n

Notre Dame vs North Dakota
\nBemidji State vs Wisconsin<\/p>\n

Albany<\/p>\n

Omaha vs. Minnesota
\nMassachusetts vs. St. Cloud State<\/p>\n

Bridgeport<\/p>\n

AIC vs. Boston College
\nBoston University vs. Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Loveland<\/p>\n

Denver vs. Minnesota State
\nMichigan vs. Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

I would only make one change in this bracket and that is to put Quinnipiac in Albany, swapping them with St Cloud State. This is for potential attendance purposes and because the ECAC is hosting in Albany.<\/p>\n

Fargo
\nNotre Dame vs North Dakota
\nBemidji State vs Wisconsin<\/p>\n

Albany
\nOmaha vs. Minnesota
\nMassachusetts vs. Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Bridgeport
\nAIC vs. Boston College
\nBoston University vs. St Cloud<\/p>\n

Loveland
\nDenver vs. Minnesota State
\nMichigan vs. Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Jim: I am going to take a slightly different approach from Jayson. I, too, will give you 12 locks. Teams that, in my opinion, can\u2019t be bumped regardless of the four remaining league tournament champions.<\/p>\n

My 12 locks:<\/p>\n

North Dakota
\nBoston College
\nMinnesota
\nWisconsin
\nMinnesota State
\nSt. Cloud State
\nMassachusetts
\nMinnesota Duluth
\nQuinnipiac
\nMichigan
\nAmerican International
\nBemidji State<\/p>\n

I, too, will develop a bubble. But I\u2019m going to try to build my bubble based on my perceived relative strength of each league. I\u2019ll explain why I am doing this.<\/p>\n

When the NCAA committee gets together, they are going to have to somehow find ways to rank teams and I believe that one of the first thing they will do is rank the conferences based on overall strength given the limited about of non-conference play.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll keep mine the same from past Bracketology columns:<\/p>\n

Tier I: NCHC
\nTier II: Hockey East, Big Ten
\nTier III: ECAC
\nTier IV: AHA, WCHA<\/p>\n

I\u2019m going to attempt to balance the field based on these perceived rankings.<\/p>\n

So, my bubble teams are:<\/p>\n

Tier I: Omaha, Denver
\nTier II: Boston University, Providence, Connecticut, Notre Dame
\nTier III: None
\nTier IV: Army, Lake Superior, Bowling Green<\/p>\n

Thus, for me, I want to prioritize balancing the number of teams in the top tiers as I fill my final four bubble teams.<\/p>\n

Thus, without even doing much math, I\u2019m inserting Omaha and Boston University into the field based on their overall winning percentage.<\/p>\n

Those two feel easy for me and gives me a conference allocation of spots of:<\/p>\n

NCHC: 4
\nHockey East, Big Ten: 3
\nECAC: 1 (of three eligible teams)
\nWCHA: 2
\nAHA: 1<\/p>\n

I still have to fill two more slots, and have Denver, Providence, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Army, Lake Superior and Bowling Green to fill these slots.<\/p>\n

Right now, I\u2019m going to use the \u201ceye test,\u201d or my version of it, to take two teams out. I\u2019m removing Denver because, despite a strong conference, a 10-13-1 mark simply isn\u2019t strong enough for me. Wins still matter and despite a strong team, Denver\u2019s slow start this season hurt. I\u2019m also eliminating Bowling Green. The team did have a couple of quality wins at Quinnipiac, but went 1-7 in games against the top of the WCHA.<\/p>\n

That leaves me with Providence, UConn, Notre Dame, Army and Lake Superior. Five teams for two spots.<\/p>\n

With Hockey East being a Tier II conference, a fourth team would give that conference 36.4% of its teams in the tournament. NCHC already has 50%. Big Ten already has 37.5%. So I think that\u2019s a fair balance. The top tier conference has 50% participation and the second tier conferences have 36.4% and 37.5% respectively.<\/p>\n

My question is: which of these Hockey East teams \u2013 UConn and Providence \u2013 should be selected? Here is where the math gets tricky.<\/p>\n

When you look at the PairWise, something that the NCAA has said they will use ONLY to compare teams within their own conference, Providence has slipped just behind UConn (by .0001 in the RPI). That\u2019s pretty close so you have to worry about the subjectivity of the committee. Would they prioritize the fact that Providence beat UConn in the Hockey East tournament? Difficult to tell.<\/p>\n

For my purposes, though, I\u2019m going with the straight PairWise and picking UConn.<\/p>\n

So, who is my final team? Well, again, subjectivity is coming into play. I\u2019m picking Lake Superior because they are in a conference with four teams that are under consideration in my opinion. Might not be sound reasoning. But it creates the following NCAA field, by seeding bands:<\/p>\n

First Band:<\/p>\n

North Dakota
\nBoston College
\nMinnesota
\nWisconsin<\/p>\n

Second Band:<\/p>\n

Minnesota State
\nSt. Cloud State
\nMassachusetts
\nMinnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Third Band:<\/p>\n

Quinnipiac
\nMichigan
\nAmerican International
\nBemidji State<\/p>\n

Fourth Band:
\nBoston University
\nOmaha
\nConnecticut
\nLake Superior<\/p>\n

I\u2019m laying out my regionals as follows:<\/p>\n

Fargo:
\nNorth Dakota vs. Lake Superior
\nSt. Cloud State vs. Bemidji State<\/p>\n

Loveland:
\nMinnesota vs. Boston University
\nMinnesota Duluth vs. Michigan<\/p>\n

Bridgeport:
\nWisconsin vs. Connecticut
\nMinnesota State vs. AIC<\/p>\n

Albany:
\nBoston College vs. Omaha
\nUMass vs. Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Ideally, I\u2019d keep all six eastern teams in the east regions, but with Boston College a number one seed and both Boston University and UConn fourth seeds, that\u2019s not possible.<\/p>\n

There is very little uniformity to both Jayson and Jim\u2019s brackets. Which shows you the challenge the NCAA Division I men\u2019s ice hockey committee will have on Sunday.<\/p>\n

So here are this week\u2019s brackets:<\/p>\n

Jayson:<\/p>\n

Fargo
\nNotre Dame vs North Dakota
\nBemidji State vs Wisconsin<\/p>\n

Albany
\nOmaha vs. Minnesota
\nMassachusetts vs. Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Bridgeport
\nAIC vs. Boston College
\nBoston University vs. St Cloud<\/p>\n

Loveland
\nDenver vs. Minnesota State
\nMichigan vs. Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Jim:<\/p>\n

Fargo:
\nNorth Dakota vs. Lake Superior
\nSt. Cloud State vs. Bemidji State<\/p>\n

Albany
\nBoston College vs. Omaha
\nUMass vs. Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Bridgeport
\nWisconsin vs. Connecticut
\nMinnesota State vs. AIC<\/p>\n

Loveland
\nMinnesota vs. Boston University
\nMinnesota Duluth vs. Michigan<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u2019re inching ever so close to Selection Sunday so let\u2019s take another look at Bracketology.<\/p>\n

Right now, there are just nine college hockey games remaining after the NCHC (North Dakota) and Big Ten (Minnesota) crowned their champions. Hockey East has whittled their field to two teams, ECAC is down to three and WCHA and AHA still have their final four to be played.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":124728,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[947,4,1],"tags":[812],"coauthors":[869,800],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBracketology: With Selection Sunday around the corner, taking one last stab at how the NCAA hockey tournament field will look - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We\u2019re inching ever so close to Selection Sunday so let\u2019s take another look at Bracketology. 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