{"id":132212,"date":"2022-02-04T08:00:26","date_gmt":"2022-02-04T14:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/?p=132212"},"modified":"2022-02-03T23:21:21","modified_gmt":"2022-02-04T05:21:21","slug":"uscho-bettors-edge-as-the-season-advances-finding-value-in-the-underdog-is-getting-more-difficult","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2022\/02\/04\/uscho-bettors-edge-as-the-season-advances-finding-value-in-the-underdog-is-getting-more-difficult\/","title":{"rendered":"USCHO BETTOR’S EDGE: As the season advances, finding value in the underdog is getting more difficult"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>
Penn State is back on the road this weekend as the Nittany Lions travel to South Bend for a Big Ten weekend series against Notre Dame on Friday and Saturday evening inside Compton Family Ice Arena (photo: Mark Selders).04<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It shouldn’t be surprising as a bettor that as a season rolls along, there are less and less opportunities to find the edges in game lines that will net you a big payday.<\/p>\n

The same is the case in most every sport.<\/p>\n

This week, at least when I visited the app, DraftKings dropped all money lines. The only two bets you can make on its selected games are over\/under (my advice: stay away) and puck line.<\/p>\n

Puck line is interesting as it assigns a margin to the favorite and underdog. The favorite often receives a -1.5 goal margin. So if the favorite wins by more than a goal that bet pays. You typically get a much better line to bet the favorite, but that team also has to win by two to cover.<\/p>\n

I’ve tried to never dabble in the puck line and prefer to look at the money line exclusively. Thus, everything below contains personally developed line instead of relying on a third-party site to set the numbers.<\/p>\n

This week’s games containing an interesting pair on Monday at the 69th Beanpot Tournament. The rare in-season tournament that is played over two separate Mondays instead of being contested on back-to-back nights like most in-season tournaments, the Beanpot means everything to the four teams that participate: Boston College, Boston University, Harvard and Northeastern.<\/p>\n

As a guy who grew up in Boston and has attended every Beanpot since 1989, it’s a pretty enjoyable social event. And if you can actually find lines on these games, this year is extremely wide open (more on that below.)<\/p>\n

On to this week.<\/p>\n

You can make your selections on the games listed below as well as others in USCHO Pick ‘Em. Go to social.uscho.com<\/a> to join the fun!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

As usual, a disclaimer:<\/p>\n

Understand, this is for entertainment purposes only. USCHO.com is not a licensed gambling platform and no money may be wagered through this site or any\u00a0subsidiary of USCHO.<\/i><\/strong><\/p>\n

All games are the first games when they occur in a two-game series, unless noted. Monday games are marked appropriately.<\/p>\n

Enjoy and, if you bet, may you be successful.<\/p>\n

Penn State (+190) at No. 13 Notre Dame (-220)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Here we go again with yet another game where the entire USCHO staff picks the same team, in this case Notre Dame.<\/p>\n

If you’re a faithful reader of this column, though, you might tend to intentionally bet against the USCHO crew. By my count, unanimous picks on this season are just 1-2, not exactly a ringing endorsement for our pundits.<\/p>\n

Notre Dame did sweep the two-game series these clubs played in January, but required overtime to take home the second game, a wild, 5-4 decision. The Irish are a dominating 6-2-1 in the last nine between the clubs, but the ever-present question for Notre Dame is whether they can play with the lead. That’s always helpful for this club.<\/p>\n\n

\n
Jim<\/div>\n
Dan<\/div>\n
Ed<\/div>\n
Paula<\/div>\n
John<\/div>\n
Nate<\/div>\n
Chris<\/div>\n
Jack<\/div>\n
Matt<\/div>\n
Drew<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
HEA<\/div>\n
ECAC<\/div>\n
AHA<\/div>\n
CCHA<\/div>\n
NCHC<\/div>\n
B1G<\/div>\n
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div><\/div>\n\n

No. 7 St. Cloud State (+150) at No. 4 Denver (-170)<\/b><\/p>\n

It’s rare you see a No. 7 team this heavy of an underdog. But then again, any team that faces Denver right now almost has to be marked as a ‘Dog.<\/p>\n

The Pioneers are 7-0-1 in their last eight, which included six straight wins. Since Nov. 6, Denver is 16-1-1, the best mark in the nation over that span. There seem to be very few holes in Denver’s game (top offense, 5th-ranked power play, 8th-ranked defense), but let’s look at St. Cloud State.<\/p>\n

The Huskies struggled with North Dakota a week ago but had won five of six prior. During that stretch the annihilated Miami by a cumulative 19-1 score over two games. But nationally-ranked teams have been the struggle for the Huskies (4-7-1 against teams in DCU\/USCHO poll when game is played)<\/p>\n\n

\n
Jim<\/div>\n
Dan<\/div>\n
Ed<\/div>\n
Paula<\/div>\n
John<\/div>\n
Nate<\/div>\n
Chris<\/div>\n
Jack<\/div>\n
Matt<\/div>\n
Drew<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
HEA<\/div>\n
ECAC<\/div>\n
AHA<\/div>\n
CCHA<\/div>\n
NCHC<\/div>\n
B1G<\/div>\n
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div><\/div>\n\n

No. 18 Omaha (-130) at No. 12 North Dakota (-110)<\/b><\/p>\n

You can make this a pick ’em pretty much anywhere, but if I’m setting the line, this is a game where the house wants to win some money, hence the “co-favorite” line.<\/p>\n

As just mentioned, North Dakota was strong against St. Cloud State a week ago, helping to boost their national ranking. But the PairWise still placed the Fighting Hawks on the NCAA Tournament bubble.<\/p>\n

While North Dakota is on the right side of that puddle, Omaha is on the wrong and should be pretty hungry to find a way to pull out the majority of points this weekend. Sweeps have been impossible for the Mavericks in the NCHC – they are 0-for-7 in taking all of the available points in NCHC series this season. But the reality is, we’re only picking Friday, so maybe that makes them a decent pick?<\/p>\n\n

\n
Jim<\/div>\n
Dan<\/div>\n
Ed<\/div>\n
Paula<\/div>\n
John<\/div>\n
Nate<\/div>\n
Chris<\/div>\n
Jack<\/div>\n
Matt<\/div>\n
Drew<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
HEA<\/div>\n
ECAC<\/div>\n
AHA<\/div>\n
CCHA<\/div>\n
NCHC<\/div>\n
B1G<\/div>\n
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div><\/div>\n\n

69th Beanpot Tournament (at TD\u00a0Garden, Boston – Monday, February 7)<\/b>
\nNo. 19 Boston University (-120) vs. Harvard (-110)<\/strong>
\nBoston College (+130) vs. Northeastern (-115)<\/strong><\/p>\n

When it comes to college hockey’s best-known in-season tournament, the biggest factor this year will be hockey occurring some 8,000 miles away.<\/p>\n

The Olympic hockey tournament has taken key players from every single Beanpot lineup. Two teams will be without their starting goaltender in Northeastern (Devon Levi) and Boston University (Drew Commesso).<\/p>\n

Boston College will be missing a trio (Jack McBain, Drew Helleson and Marc McLaughlin) and Harvard will have a pair of players absent (Nick Abruzzese and Sean Farrell).<\/p>\n

So how do you handicap these games? For years, this would’ve been easier – just pick BU. The Terriers were the most dominant team this tournament saw under legendary coach Jack Parker. But over the last half-decade this has become Northeastern’s tournament.<\/p>\n

Does that mean much this year? Probably not. So let’s just consider a crazy trend the Beanpot has delivered.<\/p>\n

This is the greatest statistical anomaly that I can present: Northeastern and Harvard have NEVER met in the Championship Game. Not once in 68 years. There are only four teams playing and either BC or BU (and very often both teams) have been in the finals.<\/p>\n

This does feel like a year that could end. On paper, NU and Harvard are the best teams and don’t face one another in the semis. But a HU-NU final feels like a moment that likely never happens.<\/p>\n\n

\n
Jim<\/div>\n
Dan<\/div>\n
Ed<\/div>\n
Paula<\/div>\n
John<\/div>\n
Nate<\/div>\n
Chris<\/div>\n
Jack<\/div>\n
Matt<\/div>\n
Drew<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
HEA<\/div>\n
ECAC<\/div>\n
AHA<\/div>\n
CCHA<\/div>\n
NCHC<\/div>\n
B1G<\/div>\n
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n
\n
Jim<\/div>\n
Dan<\/div>\n
Ed<\/div>\n
Paula<\/div>\n
John<\/div>\n
Nate<\/div>\n
Chris<\/div>\n
Jack<\/div>\n
Matt<\/div>\n
Drew<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
Nat'l<\/div>\n
HEA<\/div>\n
ECAC<\/div>\n
AHA<\/div>\n
CCHA<\/div>\n
NCHC<\/div>\n
B1G<\/div>\n
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div><\/div>\n\n

Pick records to date:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jim Connelly – 40-31
\nChris Lerch – 38-23
\nMatthew Semisch – 36-25
\nDrew Claussen – 36-25
\nEd Trefzger – 37-24
\nDan Rubin – 34-27
\nJohn Doyle – 34-27
\nPaula Weston – 32-29
\nJack Hittinger – 31-30
\nNate Owen – 27-34<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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