: the PairWise Rankings, the KRACH ranking, and your very own GRaNT rankings. There are places where these three ratings systems agree \u2013 they all have a bottom three of RIT, Post, and St. Michaels, in that order \u2013 but mostly they don\u2019t. The good news is that they do reach a consensus on who the top 10 teams are, and they\u2019re unanimous right now in slotting Clarkson as the last of those, the team that would be bumped from the field if an off-the-radar team beyond the CHA entrant secured an automatic bid.<\/span><\/p>\nThere isn\u2019t agreement on other key pieces, such as the top four seeds in line to host NCAA regionals. KRACH has the NCAA nightmare scenario of the top four WCHA teams as the top four seeds, with Ohio State leading the way. GRaNT also has the Buckeyes on top, but slots Wisconsin second and Minnesota third, a reversal of KRACH, and completes its top four seeds with Northeastern rather than UMD.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nNone of this matters, as the NCAA uses the PairWise. Its top four in order are Minnesota, OSU, Northeastern, and Yale. Yale is currently a rather distant No. 8 in KRACH. Though I dream of a day when the NCAA selects a better ranking system, the Bulldogs from New Haven are safe, as I\u2019m sure that the NCAA will still be endorsing some RPI based system on my dying day.<\/span><\/p>\nAs juicy as the hypothetical case posed by Grant (the columnist, not the ranking system) may be, what looms on the actual horizon is fraught with as much uncertainty. PairWise could still pivot in an unexpected direction and produce unimagined brackets, given how close these teams are.<\/span><\/p>\nGrant<\/b>: A by-product of all these teams being close in the rankings means that the tournaments are going to be close, too. There are nine (!) likely NCAA tournament teams between the WCHA and the ECAC. I mean, honestly, do you have any confidence in trying to pick who is going to win the WCHA between Ohio State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Duluth? Can you even begin to guess who is going to come out of the ECAC tournament unscathed among Yale, Harvard, Quinnipiac, Colgate, and Clarkson?\u00a0 <\/span>h<\/p>\nReally, the teams are so close that if you used KRACH as a ranking system, Yale would be out of the tournament field under the old format (8th, knocked out by the CHA champion), but with the Pairwise they are currently sitting at 4th, with home ice for the quarterfinals! What?!<\/p>\n
Arlan<\/b>: For many years, the WCHA Championship was won by the No. 1 or No. 2 seed; that was it. Low-ranked teams might pull an upset in the quarterfinals, or a team seeded fourth or fifth might make a surprise foray into the final. That type of result started with Ohio State in 2001, and the most noteworthy example was likely Bemidji State in 2015. Both of those teams dumped a top-seeded Minnesota team in the semifinals, so you have a valid point that the Gophers shouldn\u2019t read too much into a high seed.<\/span><\/p>\nIn a twist, Minnesota was also the first third-seeded team to win the WCHA tourney, that coming in 2018, and the Buckeyes duplicated that feat in 2020. Prior to that, it seemed that the energy needed to pull off a semifinal upset left that team unable to spring another surprise the next day. Much of that was due to the top seeds simply being visibly better than those further down the standings, and the odds didn\u2019t favor back-to-back upsets.<\/span><\/p>\nCan UMD be the first team to hoist the WCHA trophy when seeded fourth or below? The Bulldogs have definitely shown that they can hang with anyone in the field, having a pair of wins over both OSU and UM, and a win and an overtime loss versus Wisconsin. Where UMD has been lacking is defeating a ranked team twice in a weekend. At least it couldn\u2019t manage it in league play, but it did take Harvard down on consecutive days.<\/span><\/p>\nThe other teams have question marks as well. Wisconsin dipped in December and hasn\u2019t been able to regain its previous level. Minnesota\u2019s likely starting goaltender has had a couple starts where she\u2019s given up a soft goal early, putting her team in the kind of hole that can end a tournament run. Much has been said about OSU\u2019s last-second loss in Bemidji with their goaltender pulled, but the bigger issue is being tied in the closing seconds of a must-have game. One can choose to look at the fact that the Beavers plagued Clarkson and Wisconsin similarly early in the season either as evidence that BSU can do that to anyone or a warning that the Buckeyes should have heeded.<\/span><\/p>\nAs for the ECAC, the top of that league looks like it is in transition, but far be it from me to say in what direction teams are headed. It went into the last couple of weeks with teams having a wide range of where they were likely to finish, which would suggest that the playoffs will be wide-open as well. The one thing that didn\u2019t have drama was which teams would be included in the eight-team field. The best eight teams have advanced, so I hope that the tournament lives up to its promise. Having Harvard sitting atop the conference isn\u2019t quite the intimidating presence it was when the Crimson were a national contender on a yearly basis, so I agree that the ECAC is as wide open as it\u2019s ever been.<\/span><\/p>\nNicole<\/b>: As much as we\u2019ve focused on the WCHA and ECAC, Hockey East has traditionally been the tournament primed for surprises and upsets. It feels like this conference can be the most volatile in terms of surprising outcomes, especially in one-and-done games. Northeastern is by far the favorite, but who else do you think has a legitimate chance to win the tournament? Who\u2019s the dark horse that you think could go on a couple-game run and surprise everyone?<\/span><\/p>\nGrant: <\/b>You mentioned to me offline about Hockey East seeming by far the most likely to produce an upset champion, if only because the WCHA and ECAC all have so many teams at the top that any of them winning wouldn\u2019t really be an upset. That\u2019s a great point and really does make Hockey East the most likely league for an upset just by default \u2013 *anyone* winning the league other than the Huskies would qualify as a pretty sizable upset.<\/span><\/p>\nIf we quantify an \u201cupset\u201d as an automatic bid from outside the top 10, then Hockey East is really left as the only option since the CHA is going to get it\u2019s one tournament spot no matter who wins. But it actually gets better \u2013 Hockey East moved to a single-elimination tournament this year, so if you thought it was prone to upsets before, you\u2019d better buckle up. The teams in the top six just have to win three games to win the league title.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nAs for which team is the most likely \u2013 Northeastern gets Alina M\u00fcller back in time for the postseason (I am pretty sure she returned stateside this weekend, so she should be) that really narrows down the possibilities, for me. There seems to be a pretty stark drop after the top four of Northeastern, Vermont, UConn, and Boston College, and I really don\u2019t see any way a team like BU, Maine, Providence, or UNH are going to both take down Northeastern and also win 3 games on the road to be bracket busters, especially when some of those teams (looking at you, Providence) look like they can\u2019t wait for the season to end.<\/span><\/p>\nBut among teams in 2nd through 4th, I could see it happening. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s <\/span>likely <\/span><\/i>\u2013 I think pretty highly of Northeastern when they\u2019re at full strength \u2013 but it\u2019s single elimination, and Vermont in particular is on fire lately.<\/span><\/p>\nArlan<\/b>: Northeastern is a key team in the bracket moving forward. They were a kind bounce away from being Hockey East\u2019s first NCAA Champion last March. While BC and BU have also reached the final, twice in the case of the Terriers, neither was able to extend the drama beyond the final buzzer.<\/span><\/p>\nOne way to look at the Huskies is to say that in 2021 they knocked on the door, and now they\u2019re in a position to kick it in. The Wisconsin team that denied Northeastern its dream ending doesn\u2019t look to be playing at the same level of late, with a roster depleted both by Olympic centralization and key injuries. The Huskies have had leading scorer Maureen Murphy in the lineup for a full season, and one would think that she\u2019s better integrated into what they\u2019re trying to accomplish. Northeastern hasn\u2019t lost while at full strength, as all of their defeats have occurred while Mueller has been out, and as you\u2019ve indicated, the Huskies figure to have her the rest of the way.<\/span><\/p>\nYet, history hints at a couple of worrisome trends. Players who compete at the Olympics typically don\u2019t make a seamless return to NCAA competition, at least immediately. UMD in 2002 relied heavily upon European Olympians. When they returned to Duluth after the Salt Lake Olympics, it took the Bulldogs several weeks to start playing like a championship team once more. The Noora R\u00e4ty who returned from the Vancouver Olympics in 2010 was a shadow of what she had shown before her departure.<\/span><\/p>\nM\u00fcller was such a big part of Team Switzerland. She looked to empty the tank down the stretch, playing 23 minutes in an emotional win over the Russians by another name, followed by a physically-taxing effort against Canada in the semifinals, and almost 26 minutes on ice in the bronze-medal game. Beyond the physical effort of the competition and the travel, the near miss must have exacted an emotional toll.<\/span><\/p>\nPlus, they face the same question that has been asked of New Hampshire, BU, BC, and past contending Northeastern teams, \u201cHas the Hockey East campaign challenged them sufficiently to prepare them for what awaits?\u201d As you said, none of the HEA competitors are found in the top 10 of the PairWise. In crafting the schedule, Dave Flint and his braintrust could have expected a test from Princeton and Cornell, but neither of those programs broke into the upper echelon either.<\/span><\/p>\nYou have a better perspective on the Huskies than I do. Are they positioned to push beyond these and other challenges?<\/span><\/p>\nGrant: <\/b>I\u2019m of two minds with Northeastern. On the one hand, they really are a completely different team at full strength. It\u2019s not just the addition of M\u00fcller back into the lineup, it\u2019s that the whole line chart gets put back into position. They were also without Chloe Aurard for a few games prior to this past weekend, so that\u2019s a double-shot of espresso for them.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nOn the other hand, watching the WCHA teams at the top knock each other down week after week has been demoralizing as a fan who really wants to see Northeastern take the trophy (as long as my Eagles don\u2019t, of course). The WCHA does not have the feel to me of a conference that is having its imperfections exposed. It does feel like a conference with four gladiators who are only making each other stronger while they try to kill each other.<\/span><\/p>\nIf there was ever a year to test the theory of \u201cis a soft schedule or an absolute nuclear gauntlet of a schedule better to prepare you for the postseason,\u201d it\u2019s this one. I have never seen Hockey East as weak as it\u2019s been this year, and I have never seen the WCHA as strong as it\u2019s been this year. Maybe the Huskies will be less beaten down. But my experiences watching BC not be able to break through a handful of years ago give too much painful evidence to the contrary.<\/span><\/p>\nNicole<\/b>: I suppose I do assume Northeastern will win, but I definitely think they\u2019re more vulnerable than we would have assumed earlier this year, particularly in the single-game format. I also worry for any team whose fortunes hinge so much on one player. As Arlan mentioned, the post-Olympic lull is real and the timing means there\u2019s no easing into things, particularly in Hockey East. On the other hand, it\u2019s not just how good M\u00fcller is or isn\u2019t, it\u2019s about the whole team getting to play where they\u2019re most comfortable, which would put them in the best position to pick up any slack and make their best possible contributions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nThat being said, I would not bet against Vermont or Connecticut in any one-game scenario right now. I mean, I wouldn\u2019t bet against Northeastern, either. I\u2019m saying I think those games could very easily go either way and the winners are all of us that get to watch, but who have no stake in who wins.<\/span><\/p>\n… to be continued<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nicole: Happy postseason, women\u2019s hockey friends! As we head into the first weekend of conference tournaments, we\u2019ve asked a special guest to join the conversation this week. Grant Salzano writes about Boston College women\u2019s hockey at BC Interruption and on Twitter at @Salzano14.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":132757,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1513],"tags":[819],"coauthors":[823],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
NCAA Division I Women's Hockey: Wednesday Women - Postseason, Pairwise and Predictions - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\t \n\t \n\t \n \n \n \n \n \n\t \n\t \n\t \n