{"id":1446,"date":"2015-03-18T09:41:46","date_gmt":"2015-03-18T14:41:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.uscho.com\/bracketology\/?p=1446"},"modified":"2015-03-18T09:41:46","modified_gmt":"2015-03-18T14:41:46","slug":"just-days-out-and-we-can-keep-most-of-the-eastern-teams-in-the-east","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2015\/03\/18\/just-days-out-and-we-can-keep-most-of-the-eastern-teams-in-the-east\/","title":{"rendered":"Just days out, and we can keep most of the Eastern teams in the East"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
Zach Sanford, Adam Gilmour and Boston College have to wait to learn their NCAA tournament fate, and whether it would involve a game close to home (photo: Melissa Wade).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament would wind up come selection time using what we know now.<\/p>\n

It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.<\/p>\n

This is the penultimate edition for the 2014-15 season. We’ll have our final prediction after Saturday night’s games are done; the selection show is at noon EDT Sunday on ESPNU. We’ll also have updates on the Bracketology Blog through the weekend.<\/p>\n

Those of you that are veterans of the college hockey scene know that it is all about the PairWise Rankings<\/a>. This is USCHO’s numerical approach that simulates the way the NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey committee chooses the teams that make the NCAA tournament.<\/p>\n

Since USCHO began the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament.<\/p>\n

For the past four years, I am the only prognosticator to have correctly predicted the exact brackets for the NCAA tournament, meaning that I have predicted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.<\/p>\n

This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.<\/p>\n

If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here are the facts:<\/p>\n

• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.<\/p>\n

• There are four regional sites<\/a> (East — Providence, R.I.; Northeast — Manchester, N.H.; Midwest — South Bend, Ind.; West — Fargo, N.D.).<\/p>\n

• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, New Hampshire in Manchester, Notre Dame in South Bend and North Dakota in Fargo.<\/p>\n

• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.<\/p>\n

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2015 pre-championship manual<\/a>:<\/p>\n

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:<\/p>\n

1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.<\/p>\n

2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.<\/p>\n

3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR)<\/a>, and the number seeds in all conference tournaments through all games of March 18:<\/p>\n

1 North Dakota
\n2 Minnesota State
\n3 Denver
\n4 Boston University
\n5 Michigan Tech
\n6 Minnesota-Duluth
\n7 Miami
\n8 Omaha
\n9 Boston College
\n10t Quinnipiac
\n10t St. Cloud State
\n12 Bowling Green
\n13 Minnesota
\n14 Providence
\n15 Harvard
\n16t Colgate
\n16t Massachusetts-Lowell
\n22 Robert Morris<\/p>\n

Highest remaining seeds in their conference tournaments:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey:<\/b> Robert Morris
\nBig Ten:<\/b> Minnesota
\nECAC Hockey:<\/b> Quinnipiac
\nHockey East:<\/b> Boston University
\nNCHC:<\/b> North Dakota
\nWCHA:<\/b> Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Notes<\/h4>\n

• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e.<\/i>, the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.<\/p>\n

• The highest seeded team remaining in its conference tournament is my assumed conference tournament champion and recipient of the autobid.<\/p>\n

Step one<\/h4>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current number one seeds in conference tournaments that are not currently in the top 16. The only team that is not is Robert Morris.<\/p>\n

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n

There is one tie, Quinnipiac and St. Cloud State.<\/p>\n

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 North Dakota
\n2 Minnesota State
\n3 Denver
\n4 Boston University
\n5 Michigan Tech
\n6 Minnesota-Duluth
\n7 Miami
\n8 Omaha
\n9 Boston College
\n10 Quinnipiac
\n11 St. Cloud State
\n12 Bowling Green
\n13 Minnesota
\n14 Providence
\n15 Harvard
\n16 Robert Morris<\/p>\n

Step two<\/h4>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 seeds:<\/b> North Dakota, Minnesota State, Denver, Boston University<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds:<\/b> Michigan Tech, Minnesota-Duluth, Miami, Omaha<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds:<\/b> Boston College, Quinnipiac, St. Cloud State, Bowling Green<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds:<\/b> Minnesota, Providence, Harvard, Robert Morris<\/p>\n

Step three<\/h4>\n

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.<\/p>\n

North Dakota, as a host institution, is placed first.<\/p>\n

No. 1 North Dakota is placed in the West Regional in Fargo.
\nNo. 2 Minnesota State is placed in the Midwest Regional in South Bend.
\nNo. 3 Denver is placed in the East Regional in Providence.
\nNo. 4 Boston University is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.<\/p>\n

Step four<\/h4>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.<\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/b><\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).<\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.<\/p>\n

So therefore:<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

No. 8 Omaha is placed in No. 1 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 7 Miami is placed in No. 2 Minnesota State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 6 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in No. 3 Denver’s regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 5 Michigan Tech is placed in No. 4 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9 and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

No. 9 Boston College is placed in No. 8 Omaha’s regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 10 Quinnipiac is placed in No. 7 Miami’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 11 St. Cloud State is placed in No. 6 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 12 Bowling Green is placed in No. 5 Michigan Tech’s regional, the Northeast Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

No. 16 Robert Morris is sent to No. 1 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 15 Harvard is sent to No. 2 Minnesota State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 14 Providence is sent to No. 3 Denver’s regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 13 Minnesota is sent to No. 4 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n14 Providence vs. 3 Denver
\n11 St. Cloud State vs. 6 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 4 Boston University
\n12 Bowling Green vs. 5 Michigan Tech<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (South Bend):<\/b>
\n15 Harvard vs. 2 Minnesota State
\n10 Quinnipiac vs. 7 Miami<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 Robert Morris vs. 1 North Dakota
\n9 Boston College vs. 8 Omaha<\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have one this week in St. Cloud State vs. Minnesota-Duluth.<\/p>\n

Looking at these bandings, where can we move St. Cloud? The only possible opponent that St. Cloud can have in the second band is Michigan Tech. So we have to have that matchup.<\/p>\n

You may argue that with six NCHC teams in the field, the committee has the right to allow a first-round game between teams from that league. But the committee has shown in the past that if it can avoid a intra-league matchup, it will.<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n14 Providence vs. 3 Denver
\n12 Bowling Green vs. 6 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 4 Boston University
\n11 St. Cloud State vs. 5 Michigan Tech<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (South Bend):<\/b>
\n15 Harvard vs. 2 Minnesota State
\n10 Quinnipiac vs. 7 Miami<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 Robert Morris vs. 1 North Dakota
\n9 Boston College vs. 8 Omaha<\/p>\n

Now we can start maximizing the atmosphere in terms of attendance in the Eastern regionals. We’ve had this problem all year because of the imbalance of Eastern and Western teams. So it’s been difficult to put the Eastern teams back in the Eastern regionals.<\/p>\n

How creative can we get?<\/p>\n

Who would we like to bring back East?<\/p>\n

Providence and Boston University are already there. So we want to bring back Harvard, Quinnipiac and Boston College.<\/p>\n

Let’s start off with a Harvard-Minnesota swap.<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n14 Providence vs. 3 Denver
\n12 Bowling Green vs. 6 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Harvard vs. 4 Boston University
\n11 St. Cloud State vs. 5 Michigan Tech<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (South Bend):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 2 Minnesota State
\n10 Quinnipiac vs. 7 Miami<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 Robert Morris vs. 1 North Dakota
\n9 Boston College vs. 8 Omaha<\/p>\n

Let’s next swap Quinnipiac with Bowling Green. That works out pretty well, getting Bowling Green back to a regional closer to it as well.<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n14 Providence vs. 3 Denver
\n10 Quinnipiac vs. 6 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Harvard vs. 4 Boston University
\n11 St. Cloud State vs. 5 Michigan Tech<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (South Bend):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 2 Minnesota State
\n11 Bowling Green vs. 7 Miami<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 Robert Morris vs. 1 North Dakota
\n9 Boston College vs. 8 Omaha<\/p>\n

Now, can we get Boston College back?<\/p>\n

We can’t swap Boston College with St. Cloud, because of the creation of the NCHC-NCHC matchup.<\/p>\n

But what we can do is swap the entire matchup.<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n14 Providence vs. 3 Denver
\n10 Quinnipiac vs. 6 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Harvard vs. 4 Boston University
\n9 Boston College vs. 8 Omaha<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (South Bend):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 2 Minnesota State
\n11 Bowling Green vs. 7 Miami<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 Robert Morris vs. 1 North Dakota
\n11 St. Cloud State vs. 5 Michigan Tech<\/p>\n

And look at that. We have all of the Eastern teams (minus No. 16 overall seed Robert Morris) in Eastern regionals.<\/p>\n

And there you have it.<\/p>\n

As the week goes on check the Bracketology Blog for more insights leading up to selection Sunday.<\/p>\n

Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

This week’s brackets<\/h4>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n14 Providence vs. 3 Denver
\n10 Quinnipiac vs. 6 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Harvard vs. 4 Boston University
\n9 Boston College vs. 8 Omaha<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (South Bend):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 2 Minnesota State
\n11 Bowling Green vs. 7 Miami<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 Robert Morris vs. 1 North Dakota
\n11 St. Cloud State vs. 5 Michigan Tech<\/p>\n

Conference breakdowns<\/h4>\n

NCHC — 6
\nHockey East — 3
\nWCHA — 3
\nECAC Hockey — 2
\nBig Ten — 1
\nAtlantic Hockey — 1<\/p>\n

On the move<\/h4>\n

In:<\/b> St. Cloud State, Harvard<\/p>\n

Out:<\/b> Yale, Michigan State<\/p>\n

Attendance woes?<\/h4>\n

I think we are OK.<\/p>\n

Last week’s brackets<\/h4>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Yale vs. 4 Miami
\n9 Providence vs. 5 Michigan Tech<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Minnesota vs. 3 Minnesota-Duluth
\n12 Quinnipiac vs. 6 Boston University<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (South Bend):<\/b>
\n15 Robert Morris vs. 2 Minnesota State
\n11 Bowling Green vs. 8 Denver<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 Michigan State vs. 1 North Dakota
\n10 Boston College vs. 7 Omaha<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The final installment of Bracketology before the conference championship weekend starts shows an opportunity to keep five of the six Eastern teams in the bracket in their region for the tournament.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":94739,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[947],"tags":[734,737,733,732,735,736],"coauthors":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nJust days out, and we can keep most of the Eastern teams in the East - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The final installment of Bracketology before the conference championship weekend starts shows an opportunity to keep five of the six Eastern teams in the bracket in their region for the tournament.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.uscho.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1446\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Just days out, and we can keep most of the Eastern teams in the East - 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