{"id":1537,"date":"2016-12-22T14:11:39","date_gmt":"2016-12-22T20:11:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.uscho.com\/bracketology\/?p=1537"},"modified":"2016-12-22T14:11:39","modified_gmt":"2016-12-22T20:11:39","slug":"never-too-early-to-start-prognosticating-the-2017-ncaa-tournament","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.uscho.com\/2016\/12\/22\/never-too-early-to-start-prognosticating-the-2017-ncaa-tournament\/","title":{"rendered":"Never too early to start prognosticating the 2017 NCAA tournament"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"The<\/a>
North Dakota captured the 2016 national championship in Tampa, Fla., with a hard-fought win over Quinnipiac. Where does North Dakota stand today? (photo: Melissa Wade).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

We’re at that time of the year where one thing is on everyone’s minds.<\/p>\n

Will my team make the NCAA tournament? Where does it sit in the PairWise Rankings (PWR)?<\/p>\n

Those of you that are veterans of the college hockey scene know that it is all about the PairWise Rankings<\/a>. This is USCHO’s numerical approach that simulates the way the NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey committee chooses the teams that make the NCAA tournament.<\/p>\n

Since USCHO began the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament.<\/p>\n

Five of the last six years, I am the only prognosticator to have correctly predicted the exact brackets for the NCAA tournament, meaning that I have predicted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.<\/p>\n

With that in mind, it’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.<\/p>\n

It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.<\/p>\n

This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.<\/p>\n

This is the first installment of Bracketology for 2017, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 19.<\/p>\n

If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here are the facts:<\/p>\n

• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.<\/p>\n

• There are four regional sites<\/a> (East – Providence, R.I.; Northeast – Manchester, N.H.; Midwest – Cincinnati, Ohio; West – Fargo, N.D.).<\/p>\n

• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, New Hampshire in Manchester, Miami in Cincinnati and North Dakota in Fargo.
\n• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.<\/p>\n

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2015 pre-championship manual<\/a>:<\/p>\n

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:<\/p>\n

1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.<\/p>\n

2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.<\/p>\n

3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR)<\/a>, and the conference leaders through all games of Christmas Day, December 25:<\/p>\n

1 Penn State
\n2 Minnesota-Duluth
\n3 Denver
\n4t Harvard
\n4t Union
\n4t Boston University
\n7 Massachusetts-Lowell
\n8 Ohio State
\n9 North Dakota
\n10 Western Michigan
\n11 Minnesota
\n12 Boston College
\n13 Notre Dame
\n14t Cornell
\n14t St. Lawrence
\n16 Vermont
\n18t Bemidji State
\n33 Army<\/p>\n

Current conference leaders based on winning percentage:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey:<\/b> Army
\nBig Ten:<\/b> Penn State
\nECAC Hockey:<\/b> Union
\nHockey East:<\/b> Boston College
\nNCHC:<\/b> Minnesota-Duluth
\nWCHA:<\/b> Bemidji State<\/p>\n

Notes<\/h4>\n

• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e.<\/i>, the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.<\/p>\n

• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.<\/p>\n

Step one<\/h4>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that are not are Minnesota State and Holy Cross.<\/p>\n

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n

The ties and bubbles consist of none this week.<\/p>\n

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 Penn State
\n2 Minnesota-Duluth
\n3 Denver
\n4 Harvard
\n5 Union
\n6 Boston University
\n7 Massachusetts-Lowell
\n8 Ohio State
\n9 North Dakota
\n10 Western Michigan
\n11 Minnesota
\n12 Boston College
\n13 Notre Dame
\n14 Cornell
\n15 Bemidji State
\n16 Army<\/p>\n

Step two<\/h4>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 seeds:<\/b> Penn State, Minnesota-Duluth, Denver, Harvard<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds:<\/b> Union, Boston University, Massachusetts-Lowell, Ohio State<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds:<\/b> North Dakota, Western Michigan, Minnesota, Boston College<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds:<\/b> Notre Dame, Cornell, Bemidji State, Army<\/p>\n

Step three<\/h4>\n

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.<\/p>\n

No. 1 Penn State is placed in the Midwest Regional in Cincinnati.
\nNo. 2 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the West Regional in Fargo
\nNo. 3 Denver is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
\nNo. 4 Harvard is placed in the East Regional in Providence.<\/p>\n

Why do we place Denver in Manchester and Harvard in Providence? An ECAC team is hosting in Providence is one reason, and Providence is also closer to Harvard by a few miles. Since Denver has to fly, we try to get the number one seeds as close to their homes as possible.<\/p>\n

Step four<\/h4>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.<\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/b><\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).<\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.<\/p>\n

So therefore:<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

No. 8 Ohio State is placed in No. 1 Penn State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 7 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 6 Boston University is placed in No. 3 Denver’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 5 Union is placed in No. 4 Harvard’s regional, the East Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

North Dakota is a host, therefore they are placed first in this pod:<\/p>\n

No. 9 North Dakota is placed in No. 7 Massachusetts-Lowell’s regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 10 Western Michigan is placed in No. 8 Ohio State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 11 Minnesota is placed in No. 6 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 12 Boston College is placed in No. 5 Union’s regional, the East Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

No. 16 Army is sent to No. 1 Penn State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 15 Bemidji State is sent to No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 14 Cornell is sent to No. 3 Denver’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 13 Notre Dame is sent to No. 4 Harvard’s regional, the East Regional.<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Notre Dame vs. 4 Harvard
\n12 Boston College vs. 5 Union<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Cornell vs. 3 Denver
\n11 Minnesota vs. 6 Boston University<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):<\/b>
\n16 Army vs. 1 Penn State
\n10 Western Michigan vs. 8 Ohio State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n15 Bemidji State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
\n9 North Dakota vs. 7 Massachusetts-Lowell<\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have none.<\/p>\n

Wow.<\/p>\n

How can we improve attendance at these regionals?<\/p>\n

The West Regional looks great, nothing we can really do there.<\/p>\n

The Midwest Regional looks great too.<\/p>\n

The East Regional is also pretty solid.<\/p>\n

The Northeast Regional could use another East team, but there’s nothing we can do there.<\/p>\n

If we could swap Army and Notre Dame, I would do that, but we need to protect the number one seed in Penn State here, so we won’t do that.<\/p>\n

I think this is about all we can do this week.<\/p>\n

So that is it. My bracket for the week.<\/p>\n

But remember: There are so many changes between now and the actual bracket announcement.<\/p>\n

See you here in a few weeks for the next Bracketology.<\/p>\n

Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

This week’s brackets<\/h4>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Notre Dame vs. 4 Harvard
\n12 Boston College vs. 5 Union<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Cornell vs. 3 Denver
\n11 Minnesota vs. 6 Boston University<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):<\/b>
\n16 Army vs. 1 Penn State
\n10 Western Michigan vs. 8 Ohio State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n15 Bemidji State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
\n9 North Dakota vs. 7 Massachusetts-Lowell<\/p>\n

Conference breakdowns<\/h4>\n

Hockey East — 4
\nNCHC — 4
\nBig Ten — 3
\nECAC Hockey — 3
\nWCHA — 1
\nAtlantic Hockey – 1<\/p>\n

A Year Ago<\/h4>\n

What did the first Bracketology last year look like at the beginning of January?<\/p>\n

Let’s take a look.<\/p>\n

The Brackets I predicted as of January 13, 2016.<\/p>\n

East Regional (Albany):<\/b>
\n14 Denver vs. 4 Harvard
\n10 Boston College vs. 5 Cornell<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n16 Holy Cross vs. 1 Quinnipiac
\n12 Yale vs. 8 Boston University<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):<\/b>
\n13 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 3 St. Cloud State
\n9 Michigan vs. 6 Providence<\/p>\n

West Regional (St. Paul):<\/b>
\n15 Minnesota State vs. 2 North Dakota
\n11 Notre Dame vs. 7 Nebraska-Omaha<\/p>\n

And the actual bracket from last year:<\/p>\n

East Regional (Albany):<\/b>
\n16 RIT vs. 1 Quinnipiac
\n10 Yale vs 8 Massachusetts-Lowell<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n14 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 4 Providence
\n11 Harvard vs. 5 Boston College<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):<\/b>
\n13 Northeastern vs. 3 North Dakota
\n12 Notre Dame vs. 7 Michigan<\/p>\n

West Regional (St. Paul):<\/b>
\n15 Ferris State vs. 2 St. Cloud State
\n9 Boston University vs. 6 Denver<\/p>\n

Who was in and who was out from the first Bracketology to the actual bracket?<\/p>\n

Out: Holy Cross, Minnesota State, Omaha, Cornell<\/p>\n

In: RIT, Ferris State, Minnesota-Duluth, Northeastern,<\/p>\n

A quarter of the field changed from the beginning, though two of them were because of an autobid (Atlantic Hockey and WCHA).<\/p>\n

So things do change a lot.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We’re at that time of the year where one thing is on everyone’s minds. Will my team make the NCAA tournament? Where does it sit in the PairWise Rankings (PWR)? Those of you that are veterans of the college hockey scene know that it is all about the PairWise Rankings. This is USCHO’s numerical approach […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":94755,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[947],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNever too early to start prognosticating the 2017 NCAA tournament - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We're at that time of the year where one thing is on everyone's minds. Will my team make the NCAA tournament? 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