It’s crunch time for every Division III team as the regular season enters its final weeks. It’s also time for USCHO to crunch some numbers to see who’s in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot or NCAA bid, and who’s on the bubble or on the outside looking in.<\/p>\n
I spent most of my last column providing a first look at the D-III bracketology for this season. Check there for the details and assumptions<\/a>. This week and every week moving forward, I’ll update it based on current results. The NCAA pairings below are based on games played through Wednesday, Feb. 9.<\/p>\n Note that I am still using the USCHO PairWise Rankings (PWR). The NCAA announced its first rankings of the season on Tuesday, but they’re a step behind USCHO’s PWR. One of the main criteria is record against ranked teams. USCHO’s PWR has been updated to include this now that the NCAA rankings are out, but the NCAA rankings themselves won’t include this until next week.<\/p>\n So, if the season ended today, we’d have the following teams in the tournament:<\/p>\n Autobids:<\/b> Pool B:<\/b> Pool C:<\/b> Bowdoin — The Polar Bears are the next highest team in the PWR, but are very close in an individual comparison with Oswego. Bowdoin is ahead on winning percentage and record against ranked teams, while Oswego gets the nod on strength of schedule and record vs. common opponents. Based on the weighting of the criteria, this could go either way.<\/p>\n Based on the national PWR and taking individual comparisons into consideration, the pairings would be:<\/p>\n #3W Wisconsin-Superior at #2W St. John’s #6E Geneseo at #1E Manhattanville Of course, our major assumption here is that the team currently in first place will win its conference tournament. If it doesn’t, it loses the Automatic Qualifier and is thrown into Pool C. It then must compete for a spot based on the PWR, which could possibly bump one of the existing Pool C teams.<\/p>\n Stay tuned. We’ll update this again next week.<\/p>\n The MCHA playoffs begin this weekend, and it’s the final week for the NCHA and SUNYAC. Let’s take a quick look at the standings and see who’s in and who’s out.<\/p>\n ECAC East<\/u><\/b> ECAC Northeast<\/u><\/b> ECAC West:<\/u><\/b> MIAC:<\/u><\/b> MCHA:<\/u><\/b> NCHA:<\/u><\/b> NESCAC:<\/u><\/b> SUNYAC:<\/u><\/b> … Another rating system. While “BCS” is a four-letter word these days, the principle is sound. So here’s my attempt at a similar system for D-III. I am taking data from three sources: the USCHO PWR <\/a> (which mimics the NCAA selection process), the USCHO RPI<\/a>, and KRACH<\/a> (a more statistically robust method using logistic regression).<\/p>\n Unlike the real BCS, I’m not using any polls, just the three main computer rankings. Why? Why not? In this case, “BCS” stands for “Because Chris Says (so)”. I added each team’s ranking in each of the computer models, so the lowest total is the best. Here’s what you get:<\/p>\n
\nECAC East — Norwich
\nECAC Northeast — Curry
\nMIAC — St. John’s
\nNCHA — St. Norbert
\nNESCAC — Trinity
\nSUNYAC — Geneseo<\/p>\n
\nManhattanville — The Valiants are the top team in the PWR, and win all
\nindividual comparisons with other teams under consideration.<\/p>\n
\nWisconsin-Superior — The Yellowjackets are the highest team in the PWR not in first place, and win all individual comparisons with all other teams in Pool C.<\/p>\n
\nWinner at #1W St. Norbert.<\/p>\n
\n#5E Curry at #2E Norwich
\n#4E Bowdoin at #3E Trinity<\/p>\nWhere They Stand<\/h4>\n
\nRegular season ends<\/b>: February 19
\nGames left for each team<\/b>: Four
\nWho’s In<\/b>: The eight Division III teams all make the playoffs. Norwich
\ncan clinch first by picking up two points this weekend.<\/p>\n
\nRegular season ends<\/b>: February 23
\nGames left for each team<\/b>: Anywhere from two to six
\nWho’s In<\/b>: The top eight Division III teams make the playoffs. Curry is
\nin the driver’s seat right now. The Colonels control their own destiny
\nand have already clinched a playoff spot. Wentworth and
\nUMass-Dartmouth has also clinched playoff berths. The other five are
\nup for grabs among the remaining nine teams.<\/p>\n
\nRegular season ends<\/b>: February 26
\nGames left for each team<\/b>: Anywhere from three to six
\nWho’s In<\/b>: The top four teams make the playoffs, and as it stands right
\nnow, only Lebanon Valley has been eliminated from the race.<\/p>\n
\nRegular season ends<\/b>: February 26
\nGames left for each team<\/b>: Anywhere from four to six
\nWho’s In<\/b>: The top five teams make the playoffs. St. John’s has
\nclinched a spot, but every other team is still in the running for the
\nother four playoff berths.<\/p>\n
\nRegular season ends<\/b>: Last week.
\nGames left for each team<\/b>: Playoff time
\nWho’s In<\/b>: MSOE won the regular season title, and gets a bye this week
\nalong with second place Lawrence. Minn-Crookston hosts Northland and
\nFinlandia hosts Marian in playoff series this weekend.<\/p>\n
\nRegular season ends<\/b>: February 12
\nGames left for each team<\/b>: Two
\nWho’s In<\/b>: All eight teams make the playoffs. St. Norbert clinched the
\nregular season title last weekend. Wisconsin-Superior can clinch
\nsecond by picking up a single point this weekend. Wisconsin-Eau Claire
\nand Wisconsin-Stout know they’ll be on the road for the playoffs,
\nwhile the remaining four teams will battle for the final two home-ice
\nspots.<\/p>\n
\nRegular season ends<\/b>: February 19
\nGames left for each team<\/b>: Four
\nWho’s In<\/b>: The top eight teams make the playoffs. Trinity can lock up
\nfirst place with a sweep this weekend of Middlebury and Williams. Conn
\nCollege, Wesleyan and Tufts are fighting it out for the eighth and final spot.<\/p>\n
\nRegular season ends<\/b>: February 12
\nGames left for each team<\/b>: Two
\nWho’s In<\/b>: The top six teams make the playoffs. Brockport and Buffalo
\nState have been eliminated, so the playoff teams are set. Geneseo,
\nOswego and Fredonia are battling for the two first-round byes.<\/p>\nJust What We Need …<\/h4>\n
| Rank<\/th>\n | Team<\/th>\n | \n | PWR<\/th>\n | RPI<\/th>\n | KRACH<\/th>\n | Total<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1<\/td>\n | St. Norbert<\/td>\n | \n | 2<\/td>\n | 1<\/td>\n | 2<\/td>\n | 5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 2<\/td>\n | Manhattanville<\/td>\n | \n | 1<\/td>\n | 4<\/td>\n | 1<\/td>\n | 6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 3<\/td>\n | Norwich<\/td>\n | \n | 3<\/td>\n | 5<\/td>\n | 5<\/td>\n | 13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 4<\/td>\n | Oswego<\/td>\n | \n | 9<\/td>\n | 3<\/td>\n | 4<\/td>\n | 16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 5<\/td>\n | St. John’s<\/td>\n | \n | 5<\/td>\n | 9<\/td>\n | 3<\/td>\n | 17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 6<\/td>\n | RIT<\/td>\n | \n | 12<\/td>\n | 2<\/td>\n | 7<\/td>\n | 21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 7<\/td>\n | Wisconsin-Superior<\/td>\n | \n | 6<\/td>\n | 7<\/td>\n | 9<\/td>\n | 22<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 7<\/td>\n | Fredonia<\/td>\n | \n | 8<\/td>\n | 8<\/td>\n | 6<\/td>\n | 22<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 9<\/td>\n | Trinity<\/td>\n | \n | 4<\/td>\n | 11<\/td>\n | 8<\/td>\n | 23<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 10<\/td>\n | St. Thomas<\/td>\n | \n | 10<\/td>\n | 6<\/td>\n | 12<\/td>\n | 28<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 11<\/td>\n | Bowdoin<\/td>\n | \n | 7<\/td>\n | 15<\/td>\n | 13<\/td>\n | 35<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 12<\/td>\n | Hobart<\/td>\n | \n | 15<\/td>\n | 10<\/td>\n | 10<\/td>\n | 35<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 13<\/td>\n | Babson<\/td>\n | \n | 11<\/td>\n | 16<\/td>\n | 16<\/td>\n | 43<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 13<\/td>\n | Geneseo<\/td>\n | \n | 14<\/td>\n | 18<\/td>\n | 11<\/td>\n | 43<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 15<\/td>\n | Utica<\/td>\n | \n | 17<\/td>\n | 13<\/td>\n | 14<\/td>\n | 44<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 16<\/td>\n | Middlebury<\/td>\n | \n | 13<\/td>\n | 17<\/td>\n | 15<\/td>\n | 45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 17<\/td>\n | Bethel<\/td>\n | \n | 18<\/td>\n | 12<\/td>\n | 18<\/td>\n | 48<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 18<\/td>\n | Colby<\/td>\n | \n | 16<\/td>\n | 19<\/td>\n | 17<\/td>\n | 52<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 19<\/td>\n | St. Olaf<\/td>\n | \n | 23<\/td>\n | 14<\/td>\n | 22<\/td>\n | 59<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 20<\/td>\n | Wisconsin-River Falls<\/td>\n | \n | 20<\/td>\n | 21<\/td>\n | 19<\/td>\n | 60<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 21<\/td>\n | Curry<\/td>\n | \n | 19<\/td>\n | 20<\/td>\n | 25<\/td>\n | 64<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 22<\/td>\n | Plattsburgh<\/td>\n | \n | 25<\/td>\n | 23<\/td>\n | 20<\/td>\n | 68<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 23<\/td>\n | New England<\/td>\n | \n | 21<\/td>\n | 25<\/td>\n | 23<\/td>\n | 69<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 24<\/td>\n | Wisconsin-Stevens Point<\/td>\n | \n | 24<\/td>\n | 24<\/td>\n | 24<\/td>\n | 72<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 25<\/td>\n | Lake Forest<\/td>\n | \n | 30<\/td>\n | 26<\/td>\n | 28<\/td>\n | 84<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 25<\/td>\n | Hamilton<\/td>\n | \n | 28<\/td>\n | 29<\/td>\n | 27<\/td>\n | 84<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 27<\/td>\n | S. Maine<\/td>\n | \n | 27<\/td>\n | 28<\/td>\n | 30<\/td>\n | 85<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 28<\/td>\n | Tufts<\/td>\n | \n | 22<\/td>\n | 31<\/td>\n | 34<\/td>\n | 87<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 29<\/td>\n | Wentworth<\/td>\n | \n | 26<\/td>\n | 35<\/td>\n | 32<\/td>\n | 93<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 30<\/td>\n | Salem State<\/td>\n | \n | 32<\/td>\n | 34<\/td>\n | 37<\/td>\n | 103<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 30<\/td>\n | Amherst<\/td>\n | \n | 31<\/td>\n | 38<\/td>\n | 36<\/td>\n | 105<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 32<\/td>\n | UMass-Dartmouth<\/td>\n | \n | 29<\/td>\n | 39<\/td>\n | 42<\/td>\n | 110<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| 33<\/td>\n | MSOE<\/td>\n | \n | 33<\/td>\n | 43<\/td>\n | 43<\/td>\n | 119<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n Teams have to be mentioned in all three rankings in order to be included. The top 15 in the “BCS” ranking has 13 of the teams in the USCHO Division III poll. In the “BCS”, RIT and Utica are in, and Middlebury and Wisconsin-River Falls are out.<\/p>\n My favorite stat here is Wisconsin-Stevens Point’s 24th place ranking in all three computer models. At least they all agree on something.<\/p>\n Tough Choices<\/h4>\nThe staff members that select the USCHO Division III Players of the Week have had to make some tough choices this season, mostly in the defensive category. There have been so many outstanding goaltending performances this season we’ve often had many to choose from in a single week. That hasn’t often been the case in selecting the offensive players of the week, but this past weekend presented an outstanding list of performances to choose from, making our job very difficult.<\/p>\n Norwich’s Kurtis McLean scored five goals last weekend in a pair of wins over Colby and Bowdoin. He moved into second place in the school’s all-time goal scoring list, only five behind Keith Aucoin (’00). McLean and Norwich have a minimum of five games left.<\/p>\n Also, Potsdam forward Ryan McCarthy had a monster weekend, tallying five goals and four assists in games against Buffalo State (5-3 win) and Fredonia (6-6 tie).<\/p>\n We settled on Gus Katsuras of Hamilton. The junior forward scored five times in victories over Williams and Middlebury. Katsuras accounted for all but one of the Continental’s goals on the weekend.<\/p>\n Against Williams on Friday, Katsuras scored all three goals in a 3-1 win. On Saturday, in a 3-2 win over Middlebury, he netted the tying goal midway the second period and then got the game winner with 5:45 to play. It doesn’t get much better than that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" It’s D-III Bracketology part deux, and Chris’ own version of the BCS.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":140328,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n |