I know I’ve dragged this clich\u00e9 out before at this time of the year, but the NCAAs really do start this weekend. For all but a select few teams, a conference title is their only ticket into the nationals, and playoffs start this weekend in the NCHA and SUNYAC. Lose and your season is over. Four teams have already finished their season, and another eight teams will join them by Saturday.<\/p>\n
The other leagues still have as many as two weeks to go before the fun starts, but in the cases of the MIAC, the NESCAC, the ECAC West, and the ECAC Northeast, some teams won’t even get to the playoffs, so the rush to lock up a post-season spot is on.<\/p>\n
Let’s take a look at who’s in, who’s out, who’s hot, and who’s not:<\/p>\n
ECAC East<\/b><\/u>
\nWho’s In<\/b>: Everybody, since all D-III teams make the playoffs. We’ll take a look at the Northeast 10 Division II playoffs next time. With one weekend left in the regular season, teams should make their travel plans now for the Norwich Invitational, also known as the ECAC semifinals and finals. The Cadets have clinched first place and will face off against 0-22 Castleton in the quarterfinals, so things are looking good for the Cadets to host yet again.
\nWho’s Hot<\/b>: Babson. The Beavers are 10-0-2 in their last 12 games and have locked up second place.
\nWho’s Not<\/b>: Salem State. The Vikings are just 4-6-3 since the holiday break and can finish no better than sixth.<\/p>\n
ECAC Northeast<\/b><\/u>
\nWho’s In<\/b>: Seven of the eight playoff berths have been decided. Curry, Wentworth and UMass-Dartmouth have secured home ice for the quarterfinals. Plymouth State and Johnson & Wales have claimed a playoff berth, a nice accomplishment for the Wildcats after winning just one game last season. Salve Regina and Fitchburg are also in. That leaves four teams fighting for the eighth and final spot.
\nWho’s Out<\/b>: Worcester State.
\nWho’s Hot<\/b>: UMass-Dartmouth. The Corsairs have won 10 in a row including a big victory at Wentworth last week.
\nWho’s Not<\/b>: Suffolk. The Rams made the playoffs last year and started this season 4-4 but have won just once since then, going 1-8-2 in their last 11 games.<\/p>\n
ECAC West<\/b><\/u>
\nWho’s In<\/b>: Nobody yet. There are still five teams in the running for the four playoff spots, but no team has clinched one yet.
\nWho’s Out<\/b>: Neumann and Lebanon Valley.
\nWho’s Hot<\/b>: Utica. The Pioneers have lost just once since November 6.
\nWho’s Not<\/b>: RIT. The Tigers were dominated by Utica last Friday and then imploded against Elmira on Saturday. It was RIT’s fifth straight loss on home ice, something the Tigers haven’t done since 1969-70.<\/p>\n
MCHA<\/b><\/u>
\nPlayoff Time<\/b>: The old guard won first-round playoff series last weekend to advance to the semifinals. Marian and Minn.-Crookston move on and will play MSOE and Lawrence, respectively, this weekend.<\/p>\n
MIAC<\/b><\/u>
\nWho’s In<\/b>: St. John’s and St. Thomas have clinched playoff spots. The Johnnies can claim the regular season title by taking a single point this weekend against Augsburg. Six other teams are in the running for the remaining three playoff spots with two weekends to go in the regular season.
\nWho’s Out<\/b>: Hamline.
\nWho’s Hot<\/b>: St. Olaf. The Oles have won four in a row after a six game winless streak.
\nWho’s Not<\/b>: Concordia. The Cobbers are facing elimination of they don’t have a big weekend at Bethel.<\/p>\n
NCHA<\/b><\/u>
\nPlayoff Time<\/b>: It’s the usual suspects getting home ice, as St. Norbert, Wisconsin-Superior, Wisconsin-River Falls and Wisconsin-Stevens Point will all be playing in the friendly confines this weekend. The format changes slightly after that, with single semifinal games played at the top two surviving seeds on February 26. The final will be on March 6 — no “Frozen Four” format this year.<\/p>\n
NESCAC<\/b><\/u>
\nWho’s In<\/b>: Trinity has clinched first, with Middlebury, Colby, Bowdoin, Williams and Amherst in contention for home ice quarterfinals. Hamilton and Tufts will be on the road.
\nWho’s Out<\/b>: Wesleyan and Conn College
\nWho’s Hot<\/b>: Tufts. The Jumbos swept Amherst and Hamilton last weekend to clinch a playoff spot for the second time since moving to the NESCAC.
\nWho’s Not<\/b>: Wesleyan. The Cardinals made the playoffs last season, but forfeited due to self-imposed sanctions. This year they’ve won just four games heading into the final weekend of the season.<\/p>\n
SUNYAC<\/b><\/u>
\nPlayoff Time<\/b>: Plattsburgh getting home ice is no shocker, but the Cardinals in the first round is a rare occurrence. They host travel partner Potsdam this weekend. The teams have already met three times this season, with the Bears coming out on top twice. The other series pits Fredonia and Cortland. The Blue Devils won both previous meetings with the Red Dragons this season.<\/p>\nSon of Bracketology<\/h4>\n
Our third installment offers a few changes, and some conflicts with the official NCAA rankings.<\/p>\n
If the season ended today, we’d have the following teams in the tournament:<\/p>\n
Autobids:<\/b>
\nECAC East — Norwich
\nECAC Northeast — Curry
\nMIAC — St. John’s
\nNCHA — St. Norbert
\nNESCAC — Trinity
\nSUNYAC — Oswego<\/p>\n
Pool B:<\/b>
\nManhattanville — The Valiants are the top team in PWR, and win all individual comparisons with other teams under consideration. They’ve increased their lead since last week.<\/p>\n
Pool C:<\/b>
\nWisconsin-Superior — The Yellowjackets are the highest team in the PWR not in first place, and win all individual comparisons with all other teams in Pool C.
\nBowdoin — This one is very close between Bowdoin, Babson and Fredonia. They all beat out St. Thomas, the next highest Western team.<\/p>\n
Based on the national PWR and taking individual comparisons into
\nconsideration, the pairings would be:<\/p>\n
#3W Wisconsin-Superior at #2W St. Norbert — The NCAA rankings have St. Norbert as the top team in the West, but the PWR has St. John’s leading in winning percentage and common opponents, with St. Norbert ahead in strength of schedule. The teams have identical records against ranked opponents. Winner at #1W St. John’s.<\/p>\n
#6E Curry at #1E Manhattanville
\n#5E Bowdoin at #2E Trinity
\n#4E Norwich at #3E Oswego<\/p>\n
This assumes that Trinity can host an NCAA game. I’m assuming that Kingswood-Oxford rink can host a quarterfinal game, but would be out of the running for the semifinals and finals.<\/p>\n
Does any team have immunity at this point? Can they make the tournament even if they lose every game left? Not yet, but some things are shaping up. St. Norbert is the closest, as the most it can lose before Selection Sunday is two games. If the Green Knights can sweep Wisconsin-Eau Claire this weekend, they are a virtual lock, since they can at the most lose one more game.<\/p>\n