It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology — College Hockey Style. It’s our weekly look at how the NCAA tournament would wind up if the season ended today, and how it might end up after future results.<\/p>\n
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced.<\/p>\n
Let’s dispense with the particulars, since we’ve beaten them into everyone’s heads. If you want to review them, just read the beginning of the Feb. 28 Bracketology<\/a> to get your fix.<\/p>\n Here, then, are the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), with the bonus, as well as all conference tournament champions and number-one seeds in conference tournaments that are not in the Top 16 (through all games of March 13, 2007):<\/p>\n 1 Minnesota Current number-one conference seeds and champions:<\/p>\n Atlantic Hockey: Sacred Heart Notes<\/b><\/p>\n \u2022 Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played; i.e., the NCAA Tournament starts tomorrow.<\/p>\n \u2022 The number-one seed in each tournament is the assumed champion of the tournament; therefore, that team gets an autobid to the NCAAs.<\/p>\n Step One<\/b> <\/p>\n From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament. <\/p>\n We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in Alabama-Huntsville and Sacred Heart.<\/p>\n From there, we can start looking at the bubble in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n The bubbles consist of North Dakota, Michigan and Michigan State at 8 and St. Lawrence and Maine at 12. The bubble at 16 is moot because Alabama-Huntsville has claimed a spot in the tournament.<\/p>\n Looking at the individual comparisons, North Dakota wins comparisons against both Michigan and Michigan State and Michigan wins the comparison with Michigan State.<\/p>\n At 12, SLU defeats Maine in the comparison.<\/p>\n Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n 1 Minnesota Step Two<\/b><\/p>\n Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n No. 1 Seeds – Minnesota, Notre Dame, St. Cloud, New Hampshire Step Three<\/b> <\/p>\n Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. Because New Hampshire is hosting a regional, the Wildcats are placed first. Following the guidelines, we now place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites<\/p>\n No. 4 New Hampshire is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester. Step Four<\/b> <\/p>\n Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intraconference matchups if possible. <\/p>\n Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional). <\/p>\n If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.<\/p>\n So therefore:<\/p>\n No. 2 Seeds<\/i> <\/p>\n No. 5 Clarkson is placed in No. 4 New Hampshire’s Regional, the Northeast Regional. No. 3 Seeds<\/i> <\/p>\n Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n Therefore:<\/p>\n No. 9 Michigan is placed in No. 8 North Dakota’s Regional, the Midwest Regional. No. 4 Seeds<\/i> <\/p>\n One more time, taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n No. 16 Alabama-Huntsville is sent to Minnesota’s Regional, the Midwest Regional. The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n West Regional: <\/p>\n Miami vs. St. Cloud Midwest Regional: <\/p>\n Alabama-Huntsville vs. Minnesota East Regional: <\/p>\n Sacred Heart vs. Notre Dame Northeast Regional: <\/p>\n Maine vs. New Hampshire Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have three of them.<\/p>\n We have to move Maine out of the Northeast, so we swap the Black Bears with Miami.<\/p>\n Now we have to move St. Lawrence and Massachusetts. We just swap the two.<\/p>\n So the tournament is now fixed.<\/p>\n West Regional: <\/p>\n Maine vs. St. Cloud Midwest Regional: <\/p>\n Alabama-Huntsville vs. Minnesota East Regional: <\/p>\n Sacred Heart vs. Notre Dame Northeast Regional: <\/p>\n Miami vs. New Hampshire Bracketing the Frozen Four, if all four number-one seeds advance, then the top overall seed plays the No. 4 overall, and No. 2 plays No. 3. Therefore, the winners of the Midwest and Northeast Regionals face each other in one semifinal (Minnesota and New Hampshire’s brackets), while the winners of the West and East Regionals (St. Cloud and Notre Dame’s brackets) play the other semifinal. <\/p>\n Well, let’s take a look at the PairWise and we can draw some conclusions using both logic and running scenarios through our PairWise Predictor<\/a>.<\/p>\n Teams That Can Look Forward To The Dance<\/b><\/p>\n A total of nine teams have punched their tickets, according to my calculations.<\/p>\n Those teams are Minnesota, Notre Dame, St. Cloud, New Hampshire, Clarkson, Boston College, Boston University, Michigan and Alabama-Huntsville.<\/p>\n Teams That Are, Or Can Be, TUCs That Must Wait Until Next Year<\/b><\/p>\n These teams, while they are now or can be TUCs, are done with their seasons: Colorado College, Vermont, Cornell, Nebraska-Omaha and RIT.<\/p>\n Teams That Must Win Their Conference Tournaments To Get In<\/b><\/p>\n These teams need to skate away with their conference trophies this weekend in order to get in: Wisconsin, Quinnipiac, Lake Superior, Sacred Heart, Army, Connecticut and Air Force.<\/p>\n You’ve got it, we’re now at the bubble, the place you really don’t want to be because anything can happen. It’s even worse when you can’t do a thing about your position by your own volition.<\/p>\n The teams on the bubble are North Dakota, Michigan State, Massachusetts, St. Lawrence, Maine, Miami, Michigan Tech, Dartmouth and Denver.<\/p>\n Nine teams battling for six spots, and perhaps only three spots should Wisconsin, Lake Superior and Quinnipiac all win their tournaments.<\/p>\n Let’s go into the bubble in detail, shall we?<\/p>\n For those of you who thought that North Dakota and Michigan State, in a tie for eighth in the PairWise, were locks for the tournament, think again.<\/p>\n While it is true that North Dakota is almost a lock, Michigan State, on the other hand, is not.<\/p>\n For North Dakota, it’s pretty simple: win one game and you are in. Doesn’t matter if it’s against St. Cloud in the semifinal or against Wisconsin\/Michigan Tech\/Minnesota in the third-place game. One win and you’re in. Pretty simple.<\/p>\n But — and there always is a but — North Dakota can be put out of the tournament. <\/p>\n
\n2 Notre Dame
\n3 St. Cloud
\n4 New Hampshire
\n5 Clarkson
\n6 Boston College
\n7 Boston University
\n8t North Dakota
\n8t Michigan
\n8t Michigan State
\n11 Massachusetts
\n12t St. Lawrence
\n12t Maine
\n14 Miami
\n15 Michigan Tech
\n16t Dartmouth
\n16t Denver
\n— Sacred Heart
\n— Alabama-Huntsville<\/p>\n
\nCHA: Alabama-Huntsville
\nCCHA: Notre Dame
\nECACHL : St. Lawrence
\nHockey East : New Hampshire
\nWCHA: Minnesota<\/p>\n
\n2 Notre Dame
\n3 St. Cloud
\n4 New Hampshire
\n5 Clarkson
\n6 Boston College
\n7 Boston University
\n8 North Dakota
\n9 Michigan
\n10 Michigan State
\n11 Massachusetts
\n12 St. Lawrence
\n13 Maine
\n14 Miami
\n15 Sacred Heart
\n16 Alabama-Huntsville <\/p>\n
\nNo. 2 Seeds – Clarkson, Boston College, Boston University, North Dakota
\nNo. 3 Seeds – Michigan, Michigan State, Massachusetts, St. Lawrence
\nNo. 4 Seeds – Maine, Miami, Sacred Heart, Alabama-Huntsville<\/p>\n
\nNo. 1 Minnesota is placed in the Midwest Regional in Grand Rapids.
\nNo. 2 Notre Dame is placed in the East Regional in Rochester.
\nNo. 3 St. Cloud is placed in the West Regional in Denver.<\/p>\n
\nNo. 6 Boston College is placed in No. 3 St. Cloud’s Regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 7 Boston University is placed in No. 2 Notre Dame’s Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 8 North Dakota is placed in No. 1 Minnesota’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.<\/p>\n
\nNo. 10 Michigan State is placed in No. 7 Boston University’s Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 11 Massachusetts is placed in No. 6 Boston College’s Regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 12 St. Lawrence is placed in No. 5 Clarkson’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.<\/p>\n
\nNo. 15 Sacred Heart is sent to Notre Dame’s Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 14 Miami is sent to St. Cloud’s Regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 13 Maine is sent to New Hampshire’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.<\/p>\n
\nMassachusetts vs. Boston College<\/p>\n
\nMichigan vs. North Dakota<\/p>\n
\nMichigan State vs. Boston University<\/p>\n
\nSt. Lawrence vs. Clarkson<\/p>\n
\nSt. Lawrence vs. Boston College<\/p>\n
\nMichigan vs. North Dakota<\/p>\n
\nMichigan State vs. Boston University<\/p>\n
\nMassachusetts vs. Clarkson<\/p>\nWhat Do We Know So Far?<\/h4>\n
Which Brings Us To The Bubble<\/h4>\n
Just When You Thought It Was Safe<\/h4>\n