\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.<\/p>\n
\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 There are four regional sites (East — Albany, N.Y.; Northeast — Worcester, Mass.; Midwest — Fort Wayne, Ind.; West — St. Paul, Minn.).<\/p>\n
\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year: Rensselaer in Albany, Holy Cross in Worcester, Notre Dame in Fort Wayne and Minnesota in St. Paul.<\/p>\n
\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.<\/p>\n
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the Championship Committee:<\/p>\n
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities: <\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.<\/p>\n
\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.<\/p>\n
\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.<\/p>\n
\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.<\/p>\n
\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”<\/p>\n
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders (through all games of Jan. 26):<\/p>\n
1t Denver
\n1t Miami
\n3t Bemidji State
\n3t Wisconsin
\n5t Massachusetts
\n5t St. Cloud State
\n7 New Hampshire
\n8t Ferris State
\n8t Minnesota-Duluth
\n10t North Dakota
\n10t Vermont
\n12 Boston College
\n13 Michigan State
\n14t Colorado College
\n14t Cornell
\n16 Yale
\n— RIT<\/p>\n
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage:
\nAtlantic Hockey: RIT
\nCHA: Bemidji State
\nCCHA: Miami
\nECAC: Cornell
\nHockey East: New Hampshire
\nWCHA: Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n
Notes<\/h4>\n
\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played. i.e.<\/I>, the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.<\/p>\n
\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine who the current leader in each conference is. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion.<\/p>\n
Step One<\/h4>\n
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the Top 16. The only team that is not is RIT.<\/p>\n
From there, we can start looking at the bubble in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n
The bubbles consist of Denver and Miami at 1, Bemidji and Wisconsin at 3, Massachusetts and St. Cloud at 5, Ferris and UMD at 8, North Dakota and Vermont at 10, and Colorado College and Cornell at 14.<\/p>\n
Looking at the head-to-head PairWise comparisons we break all of our ties. Miami, Wisconsin, St. Cloud, Ferris, North Dakota and CC all win the individual PairWise comparisons.<\/p>\n
Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n
1 Miami
\n2 Denver
\n3 Wisconsin
\n4 Bemidji State
\n5 St. Cloud State
\n6 Massachusetts
\n7 New Hampshire
\n8 Ferris State
\n9 Minnesota-Duluth
\n10 North Dakota
\n11 Vermont
\n12 Boston College
\n13 Michigan State
\n14 Colorado College
\n15 Cornell
\n16 RIT<\/p>\n
Step Two<\/h4>\n
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n
No. 1 Seeds — Miami, Denver, Wisconsin, Bemidji State
\nNo. 2 Seeds — St. Cloud State, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Ferris State
\nNo. 3 Seeds — Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, Vermont, Boston College
\nNo. 4 Seeds — Michigan State, Colorado College, Cornell, RIT<\/p>\n
Step Three<\/h4>\n
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. Following the guidelines, there are no host teams in this grouping, so that rule does not need to be enforced.<\/p>\n
We now place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.<\/p>\n
No. 1 Miami is placed in the Midwest Regional in Fort Wayne.
\nNo. 2 Denver is placed in the West Regional in St. Paul.
\nNo. 3 Wisconsin is placed in the East Regional in Albany.
\nNo. 4 Bemidji State is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.<\/p>\n
Step Four<\/h4>\n
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.<\/p>\n
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/I><\/b> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).<\/p>\n
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.<\/p>\n
So therefore:<\/p>\n
No. 2 Seeds<\/i><\/p>\n
No. 8 Ferris State is placed in No. 1 Miami’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 7 New Hampshire is placed in No. 2 Denver’s Regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 6 Massachusetts is placed in No. 3 Wisconsin’s Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 5 St. Cloud is placed in No. 4 Bemidji’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.<\/p>\n
No. 3 Seeds<\/i><\/p>\n
Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n
Therefore:<\/p>\n
No. 9 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in No. 8 Ferris State’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 10 North Dakota is placed in No. 7 New Hampshire’s Regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 11 Vermont is placed in No. 6 Massachusetts’ Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 12 Boston College is placed in No. 5 St. Cloud’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.<\/p>\n
No. 4 Seeds<\/i><\/p>\n
One more time, taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc. <\/p>\n
No. 16 RIT is sent to No. 1 Miami’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 15 Cornell is sent to No. 2 Denver’s Regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 14 Colorado College is sent to No. 3 Wisconsin’s Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 13 Michigan State is sent to No. 4 Bemidji State’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.<\/p>\n
The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n
West Regional:<\/p>\n
Cornell vs. Denver
\nNorth Dakota vs. New Hampshire<\/p>\n
Midwest Regional:<\/p>\n
RIT vs. Miami
\nMinnesota-Duluth vs. Ferris State<\/p>\n
East Regional:<\/p>\n
Colorado College vs. Wisconsin
\nVermont vs. Massachusetts<\/p>\n
Northeast Regional:<\/p>\n
Michigan State vs. Bemidji State
\nBoston College vs. St. Cloud<\/p>\n
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have an East Regional of them.<\/p>\n
We can switch Colorado College with Michigan State and then we can switch Vermont with only Minnesota-Duluth.<\/p>\n
So our tournament now becomes:<\/p>\n
West Regional:<\/p>\n
Cornell vs. Denver
\nNorth Dakota vs. New Hampshire<\/p>\n
Midwest Regional:<\/p>\n
RIT vs. Miami
\nVermont vs. Ferris State<\/p>\n
East Regional:<\/p>\n
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
\nMinnesota-Duluth vs. Massachusetts<\/p>\n
Northeast Regional:<\/p>\n
Colorado College vs. Bemidji State
\nBoston College vs. St. Cloud<\/p>\n
Do we like the way this looks?<\/p>\n
We have no intraconference matchups, so we are OK. Integrity also looks OK.<\/p>\n
Do we have an attendance issue?<\/p>\n
The East Regional looks very shaky. Can we do anything about it?<\/p>\n
Let’s look at our No. 1 seeds.<\/p>\n
Denver’s closest Regional is St. Paul. That is also Wisconsin and Bemidji State’s closest Regional. So if you put Denver in its closest regional, which is a guidelined rule, you have three teams flying, since Wisconsin and Bemidji will go to the East and Northeast Regionals.<\/p>\n
But if you send Wisconsin to St. Paul, then only Denver and Bemidji will fly.<\/p>\n
So let’s try our brackets with this one little switch. That switch is:<\/p>\n
Denver is placed in the East Regional and then Wisconsin is placed in the West Regional.<\/p>\n
Let’s start it all over and place all of the teams again.<\/p>\n
No. 1 Seeds<\/i>
\nNo. 1 Miami is placed in the Midwest Regional in Fort Wayne.
\nNo. 2 Denver is placed in the East Regional in Albany.
\nNo. 3 Wisconsin is placed in the West Regional in St. Paul.
\nNo. 4 Bemidji State is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.<\/p>\n
No. 2 Seeds<\/i>
\nNo. 8 Ferris State is placed in No. 1 Miami’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 7 New Hampshire is placed in No. 2 Denver’s Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 6 Massachusetts is placed in No. 3 Wisconsin’s Regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 5 St. Cloud is placed in No. 4 Bemidji’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.<\/p>\n
No. 3 Seeds<\/i>
\nNo. 9 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in No. 8 Ferris State’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 10 North Dakota is placed in No. 7 New Hampshire’s Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 11 Vermont is placed in No. 6 Massachusetts’ Regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 12 Boston College is placed in No. 5 St. Cloud’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.<\/p>\n
No. 4 Seeds<\/i>
\nNo. 16 RIT is sent to No. 1 Miami’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 15 Cornell is sent to No. 2 Denver’s Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 14 Colorado College is sent to No. 3 Wisconsin’s Regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 13 Michigan State is sent to No. 4 Bemidji State’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.<\/p>\n
Our brackets:<\/p>\n
West Regional:<\/p>\n
Colorado College vs. Wisconsin
\nVermont vs. Massachusetts<\/p>\n
Midwest Regional:<\/p>\n
RIT vs. Miami
\nMinnesota-Duluth vs. Ferris State<\/p>\n
East Regional:<\/p>\n
Cornell vs. Denver
\nNorth Dakota vs. New Hampshire<\/p>\n
Northeast Regional:<\/p>\n
Michigan State vs. Bemidji State
\nBoston College vs. St. Cloud<\/p>\n
We have to resolve the West Regional now.<\/p>\n
Colorado College switches places with Michigan State and Vermont and Minnesota-Duluth switch places.<\/p>\n
That gives us:<\/p>\n
West Regional:<\/p>\n
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
\nMinnesota-Duluth vs. Massachusetts<\/p>\n
Midwest Regional:<\/p>\n
RIT vs. Miami
\nVermont vs. Ferris State<\/p>\n
East Regional:<\/p>\n
Cornell vs. Denver
\nNorth Dakota vs. New Hampshire<\/p>\n
Northeast Regional:<\/p>\n
Colorado College vs. Bemidji State
\nBoston College vs. St. Cloud<\/p>\n
I am liking this bracket much more than the original one with just that one simple change. Attendance is now outstanding with Wisconsin and Minnesota-Duluth in St. Paul, Cornell and UNH in Albany, Miami and Ferris in Fort Wayne and BC in Worcester.<\/p>\n
That is what I would go with for a bracket this week.<\/p>\n
More thoughts and education and plain wit on the blog<\/a>. Check there every day and we’ll see you here next week for the next Bracketology.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Jayson Moy’s weekly crunching of the numbers is back, and the big issue to resolve this week is attendance at the East Regional.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":140328,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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