{"id":35659,"date":"2011-03-09T05:00:28","date_gmt":"2011-03-09T11:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.uscho.com\/?p=35659"},"modified":"2011-03-09T10:09:34","modified_gmt":"2011-03-09T16:09:34","slug":"bracketology-a-change-we-cant-make","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.uscho.com\/2011\/03\/09\/bracketology-a-change-we-cant-make\/","title":{"rendered":"Bracketology: A change we can’t make"},"content":{"rendered":"

It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament will wind up come selection time.<\/p>\n

It’s a look into what are the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.<\/p>\n

This is the next installment of our Bracketology, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 20. Make sure to check out our other entries on the Bracketology Blog<\/a>, where we’ll keep you entertained, guessing and educated throughout the rest of the season.<\/p>\n

Here are the facts:<\/p>\n

• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.<\/p>\n

• There are four regional sites (East — Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast — Manchester, N.H.; Midwest — Green Bay, Wis.; West — St. Louis)<\/p>\n

• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are three host institutions this year, Yale in Bridgeport, New Hampshire in Manchester and Michigan Tech in Green Bay. St. Louis’ host is the CCHA, not a specific team.<\/p>\n

• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.<\/p>\n

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the championship committee:<\/p>\n

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:<\/p>\n

• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.<\/p>\n

• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.<\/p>\n

• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.<\/p>\n

• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.<\/p>\n

• Once the five automatic qualifiers and 11 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders (through all games of games of March 8, 2011):<\/p>\n

1 Yale
\n2 Boston College
\n3 North Dakota
\n4 Michigan
\n5 Denver
\n6t Union
\n6t Nebraska-Omaha
\n8 Merrimack
\n9 Miami
\n10t Notre Dame
\n10t Minnesota-Duluth
\n12 New Hampshire
\n13 Dartmouth
\n14t Western Michigan
\n14t Colorado College
\n16t Boston University
\n16t Rensselaer
\n— Rochester Institute of Technology<\/p>\n

Highest seeds left in their tournaments:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey:<\/strong> RIT
\nCCHA:<\/strong> Michigan
\nECAC Hockey:<\/strong> Union
\nHockey East:<\/strong> Boston College
\nWCHA:<\/strong> North Dakota<\/p>\n

Notes<\/h4>\n

• The Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played. i.e.<\/em>, the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.<\/p>\n

• The team that is currently the highest remaining seed in its conference tournament is my assumed conference tournament champion, thus earning the automatic bid.<\/p>\n

Step one<\/h4>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any assumed tournament champions that are not currently in the top 16. The only team that is not is RIT.<\/p>\n

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.<\/p>\n

Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 Yale
\n2 Boston College
\n3 North Dakota
\n4 Michigan
\n5 Denver
\n6 Union
\n7 Nebraska-Omaha
\n8 Merrimack
\n9 Miami
\n10 Notre Dame
\n11 Minnesota-Duluth
\n12 New Hampshire
\n13 Dartmouth
\n14 Western Michigan
\n15 Colorado College
\n16 RIT<\/p>\n

Step two<\/h4>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 seeds — Yale, Boston College, North Dakota, Michigan
\nNo. 2 seeds — Denver, Union, Nebraska-Omaha, Merrimack
\nNo. 3 seeds — Miami, Notre Dame, Minnesota-Duluth, New Hampshire
\nNo. 4 seeds — Dartmouth, Western Michigan, Colorado College, RIT<\/p>\n

Step three<\/h4>\n

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. Following the guidelines, there is one host team in this grouping, Yale, so Yale must be placed in its home regional, the East Regional in Bridgeport.<\/p>\n

We now place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.<\/p>\n

No. 1 Yale is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
\nNo. 2 Boston College is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
\nNo. 3 North Dakota is placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.
\nNo. 4 Michigan is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis.<\/p>\n

Step four<\/h4>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.<\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/strong><\/em> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.<\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.<\/p>\n

So therefore:<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds<\/em><\/p>\n

No. 8 Merrimack is placed in No. 1 Yale’s regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 7 Nebraska-Omaha is placed in No. 2 Boston College’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 6 Union is placed in No. 3 North Dakota’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Michigan’s regional, the West Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds<\/em><\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

We have to place New Hampshire, a regional host, first.<\/p>\n

Therefore:<\/p>\n

No. 12 New Hampshire is placed in No. 7 Nebraska-Omaha’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 9 Miami is placed in No. 8 Merrimack’s regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 10 Notre Dame is placed in No. 6 Union’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 11 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in No. 5 Denver’s regional, the West Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds<\/em><\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

No. 16 RIT is sent to No. 1 Yale’s regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 15 Colorado College is sent to No. 2 Boston College’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 14 Western Michigan is sent to No. 3 North Dakota’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 13 Dartmouth is sent to No. 4 Michigan’s regional, the West Regional.<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

West Regional (St. Louis):
\n13 Dartmouth vs. 4 Michigan
\n11 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
\n14 Western Michigan vs. 3 North Dakota
\n10 Notre Dame vs. 6 Union<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):
\n16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
\n9 Miami vs. 8 Merrimack<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):
\n15 Colorado College vs. 2 Boston College
\n12 New Hampshire vs. 7 Nebraska-Omaha<\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have one, Minnesota-Duluth vs. Denver.<\/p>\n

So we switch UMD with Notre Dame to fix that matchup.<\/p>\n

West Regional (St. Louis):
\n13 Dartmouth vs. 4 Michigan
\n10 Notre Dame vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
\n14 Western Michigan vs. 3 North Dakota
\n11 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 6 Union<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):
\n16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
\n9 Miami vs. 8 Merrimack<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):
\n15 Colorado College vs. 2 Boston College
\n12 New Hampshire vs. 7 Nebraska-Omaha<\/p>\n

Is there anything else that we can do?<\/p>\n

We can switch Colorado College and Dartmouth for attendance purposes and ease of travel.<\/p>\n

I would like to bring Union east, but that can’t really be done. If we move Union to Manchester, UNO has to go somewhere, and the only place it can go is St. Louis or Green Bay, but we create another WCHA-WCHA matchup somewhere.<\/p>\n

But I can switch UNO and Denver in hopes of drawing some UNO fans to St. Louis.<\/p>\n

So we make the two changes this week.<\/p>\n

West Regional (St. Louis):
\n15 Colorado College vs. 4 Michigan
\n10 Notre Dame vs. 7 Nebraska-Omaha<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
\n14 Western Michigan vs. 3 North Dakota
\n11 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 6 Union<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):
\n16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
\n9 Miami vs. 8 Merrimack<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):
\n13 Dartmouth vs. 2 Boston College
\n12 New Hampshire vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

More thoughts and education and plain wit on the blog. We’ll see you here next week for the next Bracketology.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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