{"id":83829,"date":"2018-01-31T07:30:21","date_gmt":"2018-01-31T13:30:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.uscho.com\/?p=83829"},"modified":"2020-08-24T15:27:23","modified_gmt":"2020-08-24T20:27:23","slug":"bracketology-no-movement-weeks-picks-2018-ncaa-tournament","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2018\/01\/31\/bracketology-no-movement-weeks-picks-2018-ncaa-tournament\/","title":{"rendered":"Bracketology: No movement in this week’s picks for the 2018 NCAA tournament"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Grant<\/a>
North Dakota players celebrate a goal against Denver as the two teams tied on Jan. 27 in Grand Forks, N.D. (photo: Bradley K. Olson).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style.<\/p>\n

It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.<\/p>\n

It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.<\/p>\n

This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll be bringing you a new Bracketology every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 18.<\/p>\n

If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here are the facts:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.<\/p>\n

\u2022 There are four regional sites<\/a> (East \u2013 Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast \u2013 Worcester, Mass.; Midwest \u2013 Allentown, Pa.; West \u2013 Sioux Falls, S.D.).<\/p>\n

\u2022 A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Yale in Bridgeport, Holy Cross in Worcester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Sioux Falls.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.<\/p>\n

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2015 pre-championship manual<\/a>:<\/p>\n

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:<\/p>\n

1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.<\/p>\n

2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.<\/p>\n

3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR)<\/a>, and the conference leaders through all games of January 30:<\/p>\n

1t Notre Dame<\/b>
\n1t Cornell<\/b>
\n3 St. Cloud State<\/b>
\n4t Clarkson
\n4t Denver
\n6 Ohio State
\n7 Minnesota State<\/b>
\n8 Omaha
\n9 Providence
\n10 Minnesota Duluth
\n11t Minnesota
\n11t North Dakota
\n13 Western Michigan
\n14 Northeastern
\n15 Penn State
\n16 Michigan
\n20 Boston College<\/b>
\n31 Canisius<\/b><\/p>\n

Current conference leaders based on winning percentage BOLDED Above<\/b>:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey:<\/b> Canisius
\nBig Ten:<\/b> Notre Dame
\nECAC Hockey:<\/b> Clarkson
\nHockey East:<\/b> Boston College
\nNCHC:<\/b> St. Cloud State (Denver does lead in points though)
\nWCHA:<\/b> Minnesota State (Northern Michigan does lead in points though)<\/p>\n

Notes<\/h4>\n

\u2022 Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e.<\/i>, the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.<\/p>\n

Step one<\/h4>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is Canisius.<\/p>\n

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n

The ties and bubbles consist of Notre Dame and Cornell at 1, Clarkson and Denver at 4, Minnesota and North Dakota at 11.<\/p>\n

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 Notre Dame<\/b>
\n2 Cornell<\/b>
\n3 St. Cloud State<\/b>
\n4 Clarkson
\n5 Denver
\n6 Ohio State
\n7 Minnesota State<\/b>
\n8 Omaha
\n9 Providence
\n10 Minnesota Duluth
\n11 Minnesota
\n12 North Dakota
\n13 Western Michigan
\n14 Northeastern
\n15 Boston College<\/b>
\n16 Canisius<\/b><\/p>\n

Step two<\/h4>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 seeds:<\/b> Notre Dame, Cornell, St. Cloud State, Clarkson
\nNo. 2 seeds:<\/b> Denver, Ohio State, Minnesota State, Omaha
\nNo. 3 seeds:<\/b> Providence, Minnesota Duluth, Minnesota, North Dakota
\nNo. 4 seeds:<\/b> Western Michigan, Northeastern, Boston College, Canisius<\/p>\n

Step three<\/h4>\n

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.<\/p>\n

No. 1 Notre Dame is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown
\nNo. 2 Cornell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
\nNo. 3 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Sioux Falls
\nNo. 4 Clarkson is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester<\/p>\n

Step four<\/h4>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.<\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/b><\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).<\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.<\/p>\n

So therefore:<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

No. 8 Omaha is placed in No. 1 Notre Dame\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 7 Minnesota State is placed in No. 2 Cornell\u2019s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 6 Ohio State is placed in No. 3 St. Cloud State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Clarkson\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

North Dakota is a host, therefore it needs to be placed first in this pod:<\/p>\n

No. 12 North Dakota is placed in No. 6 Ohio State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 9 Providence is placed in No. 8 Omaha\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 10 Minnesota Duluth is placed in No. 7 Minnesota State\u2019s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 11 Minnesota is placed in No. 5 Denver\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

No. 16 Canisius travels to No. 1 Notre Dame\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 15 Boston College travels to No. 2 Cornell\u2019s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 14 Northeastern travels to No. 3 St. Cloud State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 13 Western Michigan travels to No. 4 Clarkson\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
\n9 Providence vs. 8 Omaha<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
\n10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n14 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
\n12 North Dakota vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n13 Western Michigan vs. 4 Clarkson
\n11 Minnesota vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have none this week.<\/p>\n

How can we improve attendance at these regionals?<\/p>\n

We can bring Providence to Worcester.<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
\n11 Minnesota vs. 8 Omaha<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
\n10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n14 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
\n12 North Dakota vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n13 Western Michigan vs. 4 Clarkson
\n9 Providence vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

How else can we look at this from an attendance point of view?<\/p>\n

You could also swap out the East and Northeast Regionals. i.e. Have Cornell as the top seed in Worcester and Clarkson as the top seed in Bridgeport. That would bring BC into Massachusetts.<\/p>\n

I am not inclined to do this, as you’re not gaining much here.<\/p>\n

The other debate that we could start includes bringing Northeastern to Worcester and sending Western Michigan to Sioux Falls. This does in fact create a NCHC-NCHC matchup in Western Michigan-St Cloud State. But remember that you could invoke the six teams from one conference rule and create this matchup.<\/p>\n

But history has seen that the Committee only invokes this rule if it naturally<\/b> occurs, and even sometimes breaks it up, but they never<\/b> have intentionally created an intra-conference matchup.<\/p>\n

Thus, I am inclined to keep it as is.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s not a lot you can do with the way it falls out at the moment.<\/p>\n

BUT…<\/h4>\n

Last week we looked at distances to the regionals for the number one seeds. Let\u2019s do that again.<\/p>\n

Refreshing ourselves from last week we asked – What is the distance for Notre Dame to the regionals?<\/p>\n

Allentown \u2013 640 miles
\nSioux Falls \u2013 677 miles
\nBridgeport \u2013 761 miles
\nWorcester \u2013 855 miles<\/p>\n

Notre Dame is more than 500 miles to any<\/i><\/b> regional site. That means, according to the NCAA Handbook, that they need to fly.<\/p>\n

What do always talk about here at Bracketology? That a flight is a flight so it doesn\u2019t matter where you go. We always say that about Denver, don\u2019t we?<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s take a look at the current number two seed in Cornell. What is the distance for Cornell to the regionals?<\/p>\n

Allentown \u2013 179 miles
\nBridgeport \u2013 260 miles
\nWorcester \u2013 293 miles<\/p>\n

The closest regional for Cornell is actually Allentown, the Midwest Regional.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s take this into consideration with the caveat added \u2013 all teams in the number one seed band are placed in the closest proximity to their campuses \u2013 as long as it\u2019s by bus.<\/p>\n

So, let\u2019s see:<\/p>\n

Notre Dame \u2013 more than 500 miles, needs to fly to any regional
\nCornell \u2013 179 miles to Allentown
\nSt. Cloud State \u2013 222 miles to Sioux Falls
\nClarkson \u2013 325 miles to Worcester (329 to Bridgeport and 347 to Allentown)<\/p>\n

If you look at it this way, with the caveat as a factor, you get this:<\/p>\n

No. 1 Notre Dame is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
\nNo. 2 Cornell is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown
\nNo. 3 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Sioux Falls
\nNo. 4 Clarkson is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s fill it in from there.<\/p>\n

No. 8 Omaha is placed in No. 1 Notre Dame\u2019s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 7 Minnesota State is placed in No. 2 Cornell\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 6 Ohio State is placed in No. 3 St. Cloud State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Clarkson\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

North Dakota is a host, therefore it needs to be placed first in this pod:<\/p>\n

No. 12 North Dakota is placed in No. 6 Ohio State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 9 Providence is placed in No. 8 Omaha\u2019s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 10 Minnesota Duluth is placed in No. 7 Minnesota State\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 11 Minnesota is placed in No. 5 Denver\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

No. 16 Canisius travels to No. 1 Notre Dame\u2019s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 15 Boston College travels to No. 2 Cornell\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 14 Northeastern travels to No. 3 St. Cloud State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 13 Western Michigan travels to No. 4 Clarkson\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

Our brackets:<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
\n10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
\n9 Providence vs. 8 Omaha<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n14 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
\n12 North Dakota vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n13 Western Michigan vs. 4 Clarkson
\n11 Minnesota vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Looking at attendance issues, we don\u2019t have any room to move here at all using the same debate regarding the six teams from the NCHC that we made above.<\/p>\n

My thoughts? Attendance takes a beating in Bridgeport and Worcester. But this is the trouble at the current moment with how the PairWise is shaking out.<\/p>\n

The issue?<\/p>\n

There are essentially three \u201cEastern\u201d Regionals and most of the PairWise consists of \u201cWestern\u201d teams. It causes attendance issues here that can\u2019t be solved. But that\u2019s what happens in the wacky world of the PairWise.<\/p>\n

See you next week for the next Bracketology.<\/p>\n

Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.<\/p>\n

This week’s brackets<\/h4>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
\n11 Minnesota vs. 8 Omaha<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
\n10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n14 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
\n12 North Dakota vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n13 Western Michigan vs. 4 Clarkson
\n9 Providence vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Conference breakdowns<\/h4>\n

NCHC — 6
\nBig Ten — 3
\nHockey East — 3
\nECAC Hockey — 2
\nWCHA — 1
\nAtlantic Hockey \u2013 1<\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Brackets<\/h4>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
\n9 Minnesota vs. 8 Western Michigan<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
\n11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Ohio State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n13 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
\n12 North Dakota vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n14 Omaha vs. 4 Clarkson
\n10 Providence vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

This week\u2019s movement:<\/p>\n

Out: None<\/p>\n

In: None<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how we believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":112777,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[591,812],"coauthors":[869],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBracketology: No movement in this week's picks for the 2018 NCAA tournament - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It's time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. 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