{"id":84622,"date":"2018-02-28T06:30:17","date_gmt":"2018-02-28T12:30:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.uscho.com\/?p=84622"},"modified":"2020-08-24T15:14:42","modified_gmt":"2020-08-24T20:14:42","slug":"bracketology-weeks-movement-shows-penn-state-omaha","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2018\/02\/28\/bracketology-weeks-movement-shows-penn-state-omaha\/","title":{"rendered":"Bracketology: This week’s movement shows Penn State in, Omaha out"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Austin<\/a>
If the NCAA tournament started today, Austin Poganski and North Dakota would open in Sioux Falls against Minnesota State (photo: Bradley K. Olson).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style.<\/p>\n

It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.<\/p>\n

It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.<\/p>\n

This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll be bringing you a new Bracketology every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 18.<\/p>\n

If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here are the facts:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.<\/p>\n

\u2022 There are four regional sites<\/a> (East \u2013 Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast \u2013 Worcester, Mass.; Midwest \u2013 Allentown, Pa.; West \u2013 Sioux Falls, S.D.).<\/p>\n

\u2022 A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Yale in Bridgeport, Holy Cross in Worcester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Sioux Falls.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.<\/p>\n

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2015 pre-championship manual<\/a>:<\/p>\n

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:<\/p>\n

1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.<\/p>\n

2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.<\/p>\n

3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR)<\/a>, and the number one seeds in the tournaments and conference leaders through all games of February 27:<\/p>\n

1 St. Cloud State<\/b>
\n2t Notre Dame<\/b>
\n2t Cornell<\/b>
\n4t Minnesota State<\/b>
\n4t Denver
\n6 Ohio State
\n7 Clarkson
\n8t Minnesota Duluth
\n9t Minnesota
\n9t Michigan
\n11 Northeastern
\n12 Providence
\n13 Penn State
\n14 North Dakota
\n15 Omaha
\n16t Boston College<\/b>
\n16t Northern Michigan
\n22 Mercyhurst<\/b><\/p>\n

Current number one seeds and conference leaders BOLDED Above<\/b>:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey:<\/b> Mercyhurst
\nBig Ten:<\/b> Notre Dame
\nECAC Hockey:<\/b> Cornell
\nHockey East:<\/b> Boston College
\nNCHC:<\/b> St. Cloud State
\nWCHA:<\/b> Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Notes<\/h4>\n

\u2022 Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e.<\/i>, the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.<\/p>\n

\u2022 The top seeds in each conference tournament and the current conference leaders are my assumed conference tournament champions.<\/p>\n

Step one<\/h4>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is Canisius.<\/p>\n

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n

The ties and bubbles consist of Notre Dame and Cornell at 2, Minnesota State and Denver at 4, and Minnesota and Michigan at 9.<\/p>\n

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 St. Cloud State<\/b>
\n2 Notre Dame<\/b>
\n3 Cornell<\/b>
\n4 Minnesota State<\/b>
\n5 Denver
\n6 Ohio State
\n7 Clarkson
\n8 Minnesota Duluth
\n9 Minnesota
\n10 Michigan
\n11 Northeastern
\n12 Providence
\n13 Penn State
\n14 North Dakota
\n15 Boston College<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst<\/b><\/p>\n

Step two<\/h4>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 seeds:<\/b> St. Cloud State, Notre Dame, Cornell, Minnesota State
\nNo. 2 seeds:<\/b> Denver, Ohio State, Clarkson, Minnesota Duluth
\nNo. 3 seeds:<\/b> Minnesota, Michigan, Northeastern, Providence
\nNo. 4 seeds:<\/b> Penn State, North Dakota, Boston College, Mercyhurst<\/p>\n

Step three<\/h4>\n

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals according to geography.<\/p>\n

No. 1 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Sioux Falls
\nNo. 2 Notre Dame is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown
\nNo. 3 Cornell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
\nNo. 4 Minnesota State is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester<\/p>\n

Step four<\/h4>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.<\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/b><\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).<\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

No. 8 Minnesota Duluth placed in No. 1 St. Cloud State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 7 Clarkson is placed in No. 2 Notre Dame\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 6 Ohio State is placed in No. 3 Cornell\u2019s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Minnesota State\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

No. 9 Minnesota is placed in No. 8 Minnesota Duluth\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 10 Michigan is placed in No. 7 Clarkson\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 11 Northeastern is placed in No. 6 Ohio State\u2019s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 12 Providence is placed in No. 5 Denver\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

But we must place North Dakota and Penn State first, since they are host schools.<\/p>\n

No. 13 Penn State travels to No. 2 Notre Dame\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 14 North Dakota travels to No. 1 St Cloud State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 16 Mercyhurst travels to No. 3 Cornell\u2019s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 15 Boston College travels to No. 4 Minnesota State\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 Penn State vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n10 Michigan vs. 7 Clarkson<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 3 Cornell
\n11 Northeastern vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n14 North Dakota vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Minnesota vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n15 Boston College vs. 4 Minnesota State
\n12 Providence vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

I\u2019m going to say it now \u2013 we have another mess.<\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have St. Cloud vs. North Dakota and Penn State vs. Notre Dame.<\/p>\n

We need to move St. Cloud since we can\u2019t move North Dakota. I am going to swap St. Cloud with Minnesota State.<\/p>\n

We also need to move Notre Dame since we can\u2019t move Penn State. I am going to swap Notre Dame with Cornell.<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 Penn State vs. 3 Cornell
\n10 Michigan vs. 7 Clarkson<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n11 Northeastern vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n14 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
\n9 Minnesota vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n15 Boston College vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n12 Providence vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Since both Notre Dame and St. Cloud State will need to fly, I swap them to give us the 1 vs. 16 and 2 vs. 15 matchups that bracket integrity gives us.<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 Penn State vs. 3 Cornell
\n10 Michigan vs. 7 Clarkson<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n11 Northeastern vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n14 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
\n9 Minnesota vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n12 Providence vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

I want to make some adjustments for attendance. Looking at this bracket, Bridgeport is in need of some help. Providence and Clarkson would help it for sure.<\/p>\n

I make a few moves here. I put Clarkson in Bridgeport, but I can\u2019t put Ohio State in Allentown, that would create an all-Big Ten matchup. So I put Ohio State in Worcester and move Denver over to Allentown. Then I swap Providence and Northeastern.<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 Penn State vs. 3 Cornell
\n10 Michigan vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n12 Providence vs. 7 Clarkson<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n14 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
\n9 Minnesota vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n11 Northeastern vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

It helps Bridgeport, and the other three regionals are looking fine and dandy.<\/p>\n

I think that\u2019s about all I can do. It\u2019s tough this week.<\/p>\n

There are no buts<\/i><\/b> this week. It seems pretty straight forward to me.<\/p>\n

See you next week for the next Bracketology.<\/p>\n

Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

This week’s brackets<\/h4>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 Penn State vs. 3 Cornell
\n10 Michigan vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n12 Providence vs. 7 Clarkson<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n14 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
\n9 Minnesota vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n11 Northeastern vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

Conference breakdowns<\/h4>\n

Big Ten — 5
\nNCHC — 4
\nHockey East — 3
\nECAC Hockey — 2
\nWCHA — 1
\nAtlantic Hockey \u2013 1<\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Brackets<\/h4>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n14 Omaha vs. 3 Cornell
\n9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n13 North Dakota vs. 4 Minnesota State
\n12 Northeastern vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n11 Michigan vs. 7 Clarkson<\/p>\n

This week\u2019s movement:<\/p>\n

Out: Omaha<\/p>\n

In: Penn State<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how we believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now (photo: Bradley K. Olson).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":112505,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[591,812],"coauthors":[869],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBracketology: This week's movement shows Penn State in, Omaha out - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It's time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It's our weekly look at how we believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now (photo: Bradley K. 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