{"id":90765,"date":"2019-01-30T16:00:36","date_gmt":"2019-01-30T22:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.uscho.com\/?p=90765"},"modified":"2020-08-24T13:01:26","modified_gmt":"2020-08-24T18:01:26","slug":"bracketology-if-the-ncaa-tournament-began-today-whos-in-whos-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.uscho.com\/2019\/01\/30\/bracketology-if-the-ncaa-tournament-began-today-whos-in-whos-out\/","title":{"rendered":"Bracketology: If the NCAA tournament began today, who’s in, who’s out?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Zack<\/a>
If the NCAA tournament started today, Air Force and Zack Mirageas would be the No. 16 seed (photo: Omar Phillips).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It\u2019s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style.<\/p>\n

It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.<\/p>\n

It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.<\/p>\n

This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might<\/i><\/b> be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on the evening of March 24.<\/p>\n

If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here are the facts:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.<\/p>\n

\u2022 There are four regional sites<\/a> (East \u2013 Providence, R.I.(March 30-31); Northeast \u2013 Manchester, N.H.(March 29-30); Midwest \u2013 Allentown, Pa.(March 30-31); West \u2013 Fargo, N.D.(March 29-30).<\/p>\n

\u2022 A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, University of New Hampshire in Manchester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Fargo.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.<\/p>\n

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2019 pre-championship manual<\/a>:<\/p>\n

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:<\/p>\n

1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.<\/p>\n

2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.<\/p>\n

3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR)<\/a>, and the conference leaders through all games of January 29:<\/p>\n

1t St. Cloud State<\/b>
\n1t Massachusetts<\/b>
\n3 Minnesota Duluth
\n4 Quinnipiac
\n5 Ohio State<\/b>
\n6 Denver
\n7 Minnesota State<\/b>
\n8 Western Michigan
\n9 Cornell<\/b>
\n10t Providence
\n10t Clarkson
\n12 Arizona State
\n13 Northeastern
\n14 Notre Dame
\n15 Harvard
\n16 Bowling Green
\n32 Air Force<\/b><\/p>\n

Current conference leaders based on winning percentage BOLDED Above<\/b>:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey:<\/b> Air Force
\nBig Ten:<\/b> Ohio State
\nECAC Hockey:<\/b> Cornell
\nHockey East:<\/b> Massachusetts
\nNCHC:<\/b> St. Cloud State
\nWCHA:<\/b> Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Notes<\/h4>\n

\u2022 Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e.<\/i>, the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.<\/p>\n

Step one<\/h4>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is Air Force.<\/p>\n

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n

The ties and bubbles consist of St. Cloud State and Massachusetts at 1 and Providence and Clarkson at 10.<\/p>\n

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 St. Cloud State<\/b>
\n2 Massachusetts<\/b>
\n3 Minnesota Duluth
\n4 Quinnipiac
\n5 Ohio State<\/b>
\n6 Denver
\n7 Minnesota State<\/b>
\n8 Western Michigan
\n9 Cornell<\/b>
\n10 Providence
\n11 Clarkson
\n12 Arizona State
\n13 Northeastern
\n14 Notre Dame
\n15 Harvard
\n16 Air Force<\/b><\/p>\n

Step two<\/h4>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 seeds:<\/b> St. Cloud State, Massachusetts, Minnesota Duluth, Quinnipiac
\nNo. 2 seeds:<\/b> Ohio State, Denver, Minnesota State, Western Michign
\nNo. 3 seeds:<\/b> Cornell, Providence, Clarkson, Arizona State
\nNo. 4 seeds:<\/b> Northeastern, Notre Dame, Harvard, Air Force<\/p>\n

Step three<\/h4>\n

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.<\/p>\n

No. 1 St. Cloud State is place in Fargo
\nNo. 2 Massachusetts is placed in Manchester
\nNo. 3 Minnesota Duluth is placed in Allentown
\nNo. 4 Quinnipiac is placed in Providence<\/p>\n

Step four<\/h4>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.<\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/b><\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).<\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.<\/p>\n

So therefore:<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

No. 8 Western Michigan is placed in No. 1 St. Cloud\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 7 Minnesota State is placed in No. 2 Massachusett\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional
\nNo. 6 Denver is placed in No. 3 Minnesota Duluth\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 5 Ohio State is placed in No. 4 Quinnipiac\u2019s regional, the East Regional<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

No. 9 Cornell is placed in No. 8 Western Michigan\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 10 Providence is placed in No. 7 Minnesota State\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional
\nNo. 11 Clarkson is placed in No. 6 Denver\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 12 Arizona State is placed in No. 5 Ohio State\u2019s regional, the East Regional<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

No. 16 Air Force travels to No. 1 St. Cloud State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 15 Harvard travels to No. 2 Massachusett\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional
\nNo. 14 Notre Dame travels to No. 3 Minnesota Duluth\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 13 Northeastern travels to No. 4 Quinnipiac\u2019s regional, the East Regional<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Cornell vs. 8 Western Michigan<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
\n11 Clarkson vs. 6 Denver<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Northeastern vs. 4 Quinnipiac
\n12 Arizona State vs. 5 Ohio State<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Harvard vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n10 Providence vs. 7 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have none.<\/p>\n

Then the next question is, how can we improve attendance at these regionals?<\/p>\n

Providence should be in Providence right? The committee did that last year, so why again this year? Swap Providence-Minnesota State with Arizona State-Ohio State.<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Cornell vs. 8 Western Michigan<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
\n11 Clarkson vs. 6 Denver<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Northeastern vs. 4 Quinnipiac
\n10 Providence vs. 7 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Harvard vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n12 Arizona State vs. 5 Ohio State<\/p>\n

Would Ohio State be a benefit to Allentown? Perhaps. It is a bit closer. Swap Arizona State-Ohio State with Clarkson-Denver.<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Cornell vs. 8 Western Michigan<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
\n12 Arizona State vs. 5 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Northeastern vs. 4 Quinnipiac
\n10 Providence vs. 7 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Harvard vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n11 Clarkson vs. 6 Denver<\/p>\n

And that looks like about it.<\/p>\n

I think this is about all we can do this week.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s my bracket for the week based on how I think the committee will think.<\/p>\n

See you next week for the next Bracketology.<\/p>\n

Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

This week’s brackets<\/h4>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Cornell vs. 8 Western Michigan<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
\n12 Arizona State vs. 5 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Northeastern vs. 4 Quinnipiac
\n10 Providence vs. 7 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Harvard vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n11 Clarkson vs. 6 Denver<\/p>\n

Conference breakdowns<\/h4>\n

ECAC Hockey — 4
\nNCHC — 4
\nHockey East — 3
\nBig Ten — 2
\nWCHA — 1
\nAtlantic Hockey \u2013 1
\nIndependent – 1<\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Bracket<\/h4>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Cornell vs. 8 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Notre Dame vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
\n12 Bowling Green vs. 5 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n15 Union vs. 3 Denver
\n11 Arizona State vs. 6 Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n13 Western Michigan vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n10 Clarkson vs. 7 Northeastern<\/p>\n

Out: Bowling Green (12), Union (15), American International (16)
\nIn: Providence (10), Harvard (15), Air Force (16)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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