{"id":90927,"date":"2019-02-06T17:00:04","date_gmt":"2019-02-06T23:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.uscho.com\/?p=90927"},"modified":"2020-08-24T12:57:36","modified_gmt":"2020-08-24T17:57:36","slug":"bracketology-if-ncaa-tourney-began-today-st-cloud-state-umass-ohio-state-quinnipiac-would-be-top-four-seeds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.uscho.com\/2019\/02\/06\/bracketology-if-ncaa-tourney-began-today-st-cloud-state-umass-ohio-state-quinnipiac-would-be-top-four-seeds\/","title":{"rendered":"Bracketology: If NCAA tourney began today, St. Cloud State, UMass, Ohio State, Quinnipiac would be top four seeds"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"<\/a>
Would Cale Makar and UMass emerge out of the Manchester regional if the NCAA round of 16 started today? (photo: Thom Kendall).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It\u2019s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style.<\/p>\n

It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.<\/p>\n

It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.<\/p>\n

This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might<\/i><\/b> be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on the evening of March 24.<\/p>\n

If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here are the facts:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.<\/p>\n

\u2022 There are four regional sites<\/a> (East \u2013 Providence, R.I.(March 30-31); Northeast \u2013 Manchester, N.H.(March 29-30); Midwest \u2013 Allentown, Pa.(March 30-31); West \u2013 Fargo, N.D.(March 29-30).<\/p>\n

\u2022 A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, University of New Hampshire in Manchester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Fargo.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.<\/p>\n

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2019 pre-championship manual<\/a>:<\/p>\n

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:<\/p>\n

1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.<\/p>\n

2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.<\/p>\n

3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR)<\/a>, and the conference leaders through all games of Feb. 5:<\/p>\n

1t St. Cloud State<\/b>
\n1t Massachusetts<\/b>
\n3 Ohio State<\/b>
\n4 Quinnipiac
\n5 Minnesota Duluth
\n6 Minnesota State<\/b>
\n7 Denver
\n8 Arizona State
\n9 Western Michigan
\n10 Cornell<\/b>
\n11 Northeastern
\n12 Clarkson
\n13 UMass Lowell
\n14 Bowling Green
\n15t Providence
\n15t Notre Dame
\n34 American International<\/b><\/p>\n

Current conference leaders based on winning percentage BOLDED above<\/b>:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey:<\/b> American International
\nBig Ten:<\/b> Ohio State
\nECAC Hockey:<\/b> Cornell
\nHockey East:<\/b> Massachusetts
\nNCHC:<\/b> St. Cloud State
\nWCHA:<\/b> Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Notes<\/h4>\n

\u2022 Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e.<\/i>, the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.<\/p>\n

Step one<\/h4>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is Air Force.<\/p>\n

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n

The ties and bubbles consist of St. Cloud State and Massachusetts at 1 and Providence and Notre Dame at 15.<\/p>\n

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 St. Cloud State<\/b>
\n2 Massachusetts<\/b>
\n3 Ohio State<\/b>
\n4 Quinnipiac
\n5 Minnesota Duluth
\n6 Minnesota State<\/b>
\n7 Denver
\n8 Arizona State
\n9 Western Michigan
\n10 Cornell<\/b>
\n11 Northeastern
\n12 Clarkson
\n13 UMass Lowell
\n14 Bowling Green
\n15 Providence
\n16 American International<\/b><\/p>\n

Step two<\/h4>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 seeds:<\/b> St. Cloud State, Massachusetts, Ohio State, Quinnipiac
\nNo. 2 seeds:<\/b> Minnesota Duluth, Minnesota State, Denver, Arizona State
\nNo. 3 seeds:<\/b> Western Michigan, Cornell, Northeastern, Clarkson
\nNo. 4 seeds:<\/b> UMass Lowell, Bowling Green, Providence, American International<\/p>\n

Step three<\/h4>\n

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.<\/p>\n

No. 1 St. Cloud State is place in Fargo
\nNo. 2 Massachusetts is placed in Manchester
\nNo. 3 Ohio State is placed in Allentown
\nNo. 4 Quinnipiac is placed in Providence<\/p>\n

Step four<\/h4>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.<\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/b><\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).<\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.<\/p>\n

So therefore:<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

No. 8 Arizona State is placed in No. 1 St. Cloud\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 7 Denver is placed in No. 2 Massachusetts\u2019 regional, the Northeast Regional
\nNo. 6 Minnesota State is placed in No. 3 Ohio State\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 5 Minnesota Duluth is placed in No. 4 Quinnipiac\u2019s regional, the East Regional<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

No. 9 Western Michigan is placed in No. 8 Arizona State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 10 Cornell is placed in No. 7 Denver\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional
\nNo. 11 Northeastern is placed in No. 6 Minnesota State\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 12 Clarkson is placed in No. 5 Minnesota Duluth\u2019s regional, the East Regional<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

No. 16 American International travels to No. 1 St. Cloud State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 15 Providence travels to No. 2 Massachusetts\u2019 regional, the Northeast Regional
\nNo. 14 Bowling Green travels to No. 3 Ohio State\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 13 UMass Lowell travels to No. 4 Quinnipiac\u2019s regional, the East Regional<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Western Michigan vs. 8 Arizona State<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Bowling Green vs. 3 Ohio State
\n11 Northeastern vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 UMass Lowell vs. 4 Quinnipiac
\n12 Clarkson vs. 5 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Providence vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n10 Cornell vs. 7 Denver<\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have Providence vs. Massachusetts.<\/p>\n

We have a few factors involved here. The committee in the past has made it known that they would like Providence in Providence for attendance reasons. Thus we can move Providence to face Quinnipiac. But we can\u2019t have Lowell face Massachusetts. Thus, we need to swap out and move Bowling Green to Manchester and Lowell to Allentown.<\/p>\n

Is that a move that the committee wants to make? They would love to have Providence in Providence, so I think the answer has to be yes.<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Western Michigan vs. 8 Arizona State<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 UMass Lowell vs. 3 Ohio State
\n11 Northeastern vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n15 Providence vs. 4 Quinnipiac
\n12 Clarkson vs. 5 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n10 Cornell vs. 7 Denver<\/p>\n

More on attendance, what can be done?<\/p>\n

A Minnesota team in Fargo would be a boon I would think.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s keep bracket integrity a little bit and move Minnesota State to Fargo.<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Western Michigan vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 UMass Lowell vs. 3 Ohio State
\n11 Northeastern vs. 8 Arizona State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n15 Providence vs. 4 Quinnipiac
\n12 Clarkson vs. 5 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n10 Cornell vs. 7 Denver<\/p>\n

Swapping Clarkson and Northeastern wouldn\u2019t be a bad idea either, since Clarkson is equidistant to both Providence and Allentown.<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Western Michigan vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 UMass Lowell vs. 3 Ohio State
\n12 Clarkson vs. 8 Arizona State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n15 Providence vs. 4 Quinnipiac
\n11 Northeastern vs. 5 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n10 Cornell vs. 7 Denver<\/p>\n

And while we\u2019re at it, why not swap Cornell and Northeastern for distance purposes.<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Western Michigan vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 UMass Lowell vs. 3 Ohio State
\n12 Clarkson vs. 8 Arizona State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n15 Providence vs. 4 Quinnipiac
\n10 Cornell vs. 5 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n11 Northeastern vs. 7 Denver<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s where I think we can stop.<\/p>\n

I think this is about all we can do this week.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s my bracket for the week based on how I think the committee will think.<\/p>\n

See you next week for the next Bracketology.<\/p>\n

Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

This week’s brackets<\/h4>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Western Michigan vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 UMass Lowell vs. 3 Ohio State
\n12 Clarkson vs. 8 Arizona State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n15 Providence vs. 4 Quinnipiac
\n10 Cornell vs. 5 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n11 Northeastern vs. 7 Denver<\/p>\n

Conference breakdowns<\/h4>\n

Hockey East — 4
\nNCHC — 4
\nECAC Hockey — 3
\nWCHA — 2
\nAtlantic Hockey \u2013 1
\nBig Ten — 1
\nIndependent – 1<\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Bracket<\/h4>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Cornell vs. 8 Western Michigan<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
\n12 Arizona State vs. 5 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Northeastern vs. 4 Quinnipiac
\n10 Providence vs. 7 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Harvard vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n11 Clarkson vs. 6 Denver<\/p>\n

Out: Notre Dame (14), Harvard (15), Air Force (16)
\nIn: UMass Lowell (13), Bowling Green (14), American International (16)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how we believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now (photo: Thom Kendall).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":90928,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[947,4],"tags":[812],"coauthors":[869],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBracketology: If NCAA tourney began today, St. Cloud State, UMass, Ohio State, Quinnipiac would be top four seeds - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It\u2019s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. 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