{"id":91848,"date":"2019-03-12T13:00:18","date_gmt":"2019-03-12T18:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.uscho.com\/?p=91848"},"modified":"2020-08-24T12:34:27","modified_gmt":"2020-08-24T17:34:27","slug":"bracketology-if-ncaa-tournament-started-today-top-seeds-would-be-st-cloud-state-umass-minnesota-state-minnesota-duluth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2019\/03\/12\/bracketology-if-ncaa-tournament-started-today-top-seeds-would-be-st-cloud-state-umass-minnesota-state-minnesota-duluth\/","title":{"rendered":"Bracketology: If NCAA tournament started today, top seeds would be St. Cloud State, UMass, Minnesota State, Minnesota Duluth"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"3<\/a>
Minnesota State clinched the WCHA regular-season title this year with weeks to spare in the schedule (photo: Jim Rosvold).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It\u2019s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style.<\/p>\n

It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.<\/p>\n

It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.<\/p>\n

This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might<\/i><\/b> be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on the evening of March 24.<\/p>\n

If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here are the facts:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.<\/p>\n

\u2022 There are four regional sites<\/a> (East \u2013 Providence, R.I. (March 30-31); Northeast \u2013 Manchester, N.H. (March 29-30); Midwest \u2013 Allentown, Pa. (March 30-31); West \u2013 Fargo, N.D. (March 29-30).<\/p>\n

\u2022 A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, University of New Hampshire in Manchester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Fargo.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.<\/p>\n

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2019 pre-championship manual<\/a>:<\/p>\n

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:<\/p>\n

1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.<\/p>\n

2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.<\/p>\n

3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR)<\/a>, and the highest seeds in their conference tournaments through all games of March 12:<\/p>\n

1t St. Cloud State<\/b>
\n1t Massachusetts<\/b>
\n3 Minnesota State<\/b>
\n4 Minnesota Duluth
\n5 Quinnipiac<\/b>
\n6 Ohio State<\/b>
\n7 Denver
\n8 Northeastern
\n9t Providence
\n9t Arizona State
\n11 Clarkson
\n12 Cornell
\n13 Western Michigan
\n14 Harvard
\n15 Notre Dame
\n16 Bowling Green
\n33 American International<\/b><\/p>\n

Current highest seeds in their conference tournaments BOLDED Above<\/b>:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey:<\/b> American International
\nBig Ten:<\/b> Ohio State
\nECAC Hockey:<\/b> Quinnipiac
\nHockey East:<\/b> Massachusetts
\nNCHC:<\/b> St. Cloud State
\nWCHA:<\/b> Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Notes<\/h4>\n

\u2022 Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e.<\/i>, the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.<\/p>\n

\u2022 The highest remaining seed in all of the conference tournaments is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.<\/p>\n

Step one<\/h4>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is American International.<\/p>\n

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n

The ties and bubbles consist of St. Cloud State and Massachusetts at 1, and Providence and Arizona State at 9<\/p>\n

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 St. Cloud State<\/b>
\n2 Massachusetts<\/b>
\n3 Minnesota State<\/b>
\n4 Minnesota Duluth
\n5 Quinnipiac<\/b>
\n6 Ohio State<\/b>
\n7 Denver
\n8 Northeastern
\n9 Providence
\n10 Arizona State
\n11 Clarkson
\n12 Cornell
\n13 Western Michigan
\n14 Harvard
\n15 Notre Dame
\n16 American International<\/b><\/p>\n

Step two<\/h4>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 seeds:<\/b> St. Cloud State, Massachusetts, Minnesota State, Minnesota Duluth
\nNo. 2 seeds:<\/b> Quinnipiac, Ohio State, Denver, Northeastern
\nNo. 3 seeds:<\/b> Providence, Arizona State, Clarkson, Cornell
\nNo. 4 seeds:<\/b> Western Michigan, Harvard, Notre Dame, American International<\/p>\n

Step three<\/h4>\n

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.<\/p>\n

No. 1 St. Cloud State is place in Fargo
\nNo. 2 Massachusetts is placed in Manchester
\nNo. 3 Minnesota State is placed in Allentown
\nNo. 4 Minnesota Duluth is placed in Providence<\/p>\n

This has been done based on distance \u2013 nothing else. Minnesota State is closer to Allentown than Providence.<\/p>\n

Step four<\/h4>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.<\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/b><\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).<\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.<\/p>\n

So therefore:<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

No. 8 Northeastern is placed in No. 1 St. Cloud\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 7 Denver is placed in No. 2 Massachusetts\u2019 regional, the Northeast Regional
\nNo. 6 Ohio State is placed in No. 3 Minnesota State\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 5 Quinnipiac is placed in No. 4 Minnesota Duluth\u2019s regional, the East Regional<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

No. 9 Providence is placed in No. 8 Northeastern\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 10 Arizona State is placed in No. 7 Denver\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional
\nNo. 11 Clarkson is placed in No. 6 Ohio State\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 12 Cornell is placed in No. 5 Quinnipiac\u2019s regional, the East Regional<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

No. 16 American International travels to No. 1 St. Cloud State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 15 Notre Dame travels to No. 2 Massachusetts\u2019 regional, the Northeast Regional
\nNo. 14 Harvard travels to No. 3 Minnesota State\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 13 Western Michigan travels to No. 4 Minnesota Duluth\u2019s regional, the East Regional<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Providence vs. 8 Northeastern<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Harvard vs. 3 Minnesota State
\n11 Clarkson vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Western Michigan vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
\n12 Cornell vs. 5 Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n10 Arizona State vs. 7 Denver<\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have Cornell versus Quinnipiac, Western Michigan versus Minnesota Duluth and Providence versus Northeastern.<\/p>\n

Looking at the third band, we have to move Providence and Cornell. Of course a simple swap would do the trick, but let\u2019s take the opportunity to also keep Cornell in a regional closer to home. That would be either Manchester, or even Allentown.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s look at Cornell and Clarkson and their distances to Allentown and Manchester.<\/p>\n

To Manchester Cornell is 322.6 miles and to Allentown 180.4 miles<\/p>\n

To Manchester Clarkson is 281 miles and to Allentown 347.6 miles<\/p>\n

I think the answer is obvious here, we switch everyone around in the third band.<\/p>\n

Providence to Providence, Clarkson to Manchester, Cornell to Allentown and Arizona State to Fargo.<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n10 Arizona State vs. 8 Northeastern<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Harvard vs. 3 Minnesota State
\n12 Cornell vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Western Michigan vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
\n9 Providence vs. 5 Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n11 Clarkson vs. 7 Denver<\/p>\n

Now let\u2019s take a look at Western Michigan vs. Minnesota Duluth. Pretty obvious play here in swapping Western with Harvard.<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n10 Arizona State vs. 8 Northeastern<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 Western Michigan vs. 3 Minnesota State
\n12 Cornell vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n14 Harvard vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
\n9 Providence vs. 5 Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n11 Clarkson vs. 7 Denver<\/p>\n

Are there any other moves we can make?<\/p>\n

Just one that I can see \u2013 a Denver and Northeastern swap.<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n10 Arizona State vs. 7 Denver<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 Western Michigan vs. 3 Minnesota State
\n12 Cornell vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n14 Harvard vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
\n9 Providence vs. 5 Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n11 Clarkson vs. 8 Northeastern<\/p>\n

And that looks like it for this week.<\/p>\n

See you next week for the next Bracketology.<\/p>\n

Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

This week’s brackets<\/h4>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n10 Arizona State vs. 7 Denver<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 Western Michigan vs. 3 Minnesota State
\n12 Cornell vs. 6 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n14 Harvard vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
\n9 Providence vs. 5 Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n11 Clarkson vs. 8 Northeastern<\/p>\n

Conference breakdowns<\/h4>\n

ECAC Hockey — 4
\nNCHC — 4
\nHockey East — 3
\nBig Ten \u2013 2
\nAtlantic Hockey \u2013 1
\nIndependent \u2013 1
\nWCHA — 1<\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Bracket<\/h4>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n12 Cornell vs. 8 Arizona State<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n15 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
\n10 Clarkson vs. 7 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Harvard vs. 4 Minnesota State
\n9 Providence vs. 5 Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Western Michigan vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n11 Northeastern vs. 6 Denver<\/p>\n

Out: None
\nIn: None<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now (photo: Jim Rosvold).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":91849,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[947],"tags":[812],"coauthors":[869],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBracketology: If NCAA tournament started today, top seeds would be St. Cloud State, UMass, Minnesota State, Minnesota Duluth - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It\u2019s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. 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It's our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now (photo: Jim Rosvold).","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2019\/03\/12\/bracketology-if-ncaa-tournament-started-today-top-seeds-would-be-st-cloud-state-umass-minnesota-state-minnesota-duluth\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2019\/03\/12\/bracketology-if-ncaa-tournament-started-today-top-seeds-would-be-st-cloud-state-umass-minnesota-state-minnesota-duluth\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2019\/03\/12\/bracketology-if-ncaa-tournament-started-today-top-seeds-would-be-st-cloud-state-umass-minnesota-state-minnesota-duluth\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2018110320-06-341063.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2018110320-06-341063.jpg","width":659,"height":477,"caption":"3 Nov 18: The Minnesota State University Mavericks host the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers in a non-conference matchup at Verizon Wireless Center in Mankato, MN. (Jim Rosvold)"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2019\/03\/12\/bracketology-if-ncaa-tournament-started-today-top-seeds-would-be-st-cloud-state-umass-minnesota-state-minnesota-duluth\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Bracketology: If NCAA tournament started today, top seeds would be St. Cloud State, UMass, Minnesota State, Minnesota Duluth"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/","name":"College Hockey | USCHO.com","description":"Men's and Women's D-I and D-III College Hockey News, Features, Scores, Statistics, Fan Forum, Blogs","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/#\/schema\/person\/5c2cea64cc964ec8368242f6397de9d0","name":"Jayson Moy","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/0844fd38a6823ecd776d66f78a8809cc","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/74ee8f7930ed5a3d4781a8ff3e4eb3f5?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/74ee8f7930ed5a3d4781a8ff3e4eb3f5?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Jayson Moy"},"description":"Senior Writer Jayson Moy is a senior writer and has been with USCHO since its inception. 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