{"id":94770,"date":"2018-03-14T07:30:38","date_gmt":"2018-03-14T12:30:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.uscho.com\/bracketology\/?p=1657"},"modified":"2020-08-24T15:07:36","modified_gmt":"2020-08-24T20:07:36","slug":"this-weeks-movement-shows-northern-michigan-in-omaha-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2018\/03\/14\/this-weeks-movement-shows-northern-michigan-in-omaha-out\/","title":{"rendered":"This week’s movement shows Northern Michigan in, Omaha out"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"08<\/a>
Justin Baudry, Charlie Combs and Northern Michigan would begin their NCAA tournament quest in Allentown if the tournament began today (photo: Jim Rosvold).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style.<\/p>\n

It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.<\/p>\n

It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.<\/p>\n

This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.<\/p>\n

This will be the final Bracketology until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 18.<\/p>\n

If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here are the facts:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.<\/p>\n

\u2022 There are four regional sites<\/a> (East \u2013 Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast \u2013 Worcester, Mass.; Midwest \u2013 Allentown, Pa.; West \u2013 Sioux Falls, S.D.).<\/p>\n

\u2022 A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Yale in Bridgeport, Holy Cross in Worcester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Sioux Falls.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.<\/p>\n

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2015 pre-championship manual<\/a>:<\/p>\n

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:<\/p>\n

1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.<\/p>\n

2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.<\/p>\n

3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.<\/p>\n

Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR)<\/a>, and the remaining highest seeds in the tournaments through all games of March 14:<\/p>\n

1 St. Cloud State<\/b>
\n2t Notre Dame<\/b>
\n2t Cornell<\/b>
\n4t Ohio State
\n4t Denver
\n6 Minnesota State
\n7 Northeastern
\n8t Minnesota Duluth
\n8t Providence
\n10t Michigan
\n10t Clarkson
\n12 Penn State
\n13 Minnesota
\n14 North Dakota
\n15 Boston College<\/b>
\n16t Bowling Green
\n16t Northern Michigan<\/b>
\n20 Mercyhurst<\/b><\/p>\n

Current highest remaining seeds BOLDED Above<\/b>:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey:<\/b> Mercyhurst
\nBig Ten:<\/b> Notre Dame
\nECAC Hockey:<\/b> Cornell
\nHockey East:<\/b> Boston College
\nNCHC:<\/b> St. Cloud State
\nWCHA:<\/b> Northern Michigan<\/p>\n

Notes<\/h4>\n

\u2022 Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e.<\/i>, the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.<\/p>\n

\u2022 The top seeds in each conference tournament are my assumed conference tournament champions.<\/p>\n

Step one<\/h4>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is Canisius.<\/p>\n

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n

The ties and bubbles consist of Notre Dame and Cornell at 2, Ohio State and Denver at 4, and Michigan and Clarkson at 10.<\/p>\n

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 St. Cloud State<\/b>
\n2 Notre Dame<\/b>
\n3 Cornell<\/b>
\n4 Ohio State
\n5 Denver
\n6 Minnesota State
\n7 Northeastern
\n8 Minnesota Duluth
\n9 Providence
\n10 Michigan
\n11 Clarkson
\n12 Penn State
\n13 Minnesota
\n14 Boston College<\/b>
\n15 Northern Michigan<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst<\/b><\/p>\n

Step two<\/h4>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 seeds:<\/b> St. Cloud State, Notre Dame, Cornell, Ohio State
\nNo. 2 seeds:<\/b> Denver, Minnesota State, Northeastern, Minnesota Duluth
\nNo. 3 seeds:<\/b> Providence, Michigan, Clarkson, Penn State
\nNo. 4 seeds:<\/b> Minnesota, Boston College, Northern Michigan, Mercyhurst<\/p>\n

Step three<\/h4>\n

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals according to geography.<\/p>\n

No. 1 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Sioux Falls
\nNo. 2 Notre Dame is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown
\nNo. 3 Cornell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
\nNo. 4 Ohio State is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester<\/p>\n

Step four<\/h4>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.<\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/b><\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).<\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

No. 8 Minnesota Duluth placed in No. 1 St. Cloud State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 7 Northeastern is placed in No. 2 Notre Dame\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 6 Minnesota State is placed in No. 3 Cornell\u2019s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Ohio State\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

Penn State, as a host school, must be placed first.<\/p>\n

No. 12 Penn State is placed in No. 7 Northeastern\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 9 Providence is placed in No. 8 Minnesota Duluth\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 10 Michigan is placed in No. 6 Minnesota State\u2019s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 11 Clarkson is placed in No. 5 Denver\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

No. 16 Mercyhurst travels to No. 1 St Cloud State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 15 Northern Michigan travels to No. 2 Notre Dame\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 14 Boston College travels to No. 3 Cornell\u2019s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 13 Minnesota travels to No. 4 Ohio State\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n15 Northern Michigan vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n12 Penn State vs. 7 Northeastern<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n14 Boston College vs. 3 Cornell
\n10 Michigan vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 4 Ohio State
\n11 Clarkson vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have Minnesota vs. Ohio State.<\/p>\n

We swap Minnesota with Boston College.<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n15 Northern Michigan vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n12 Penn State vs. 7 Northeastern<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
\n10 Michigan vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n14 Boston College vs. 4 Ohio State
\n11 Clarkson vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Now that we have solved all intra-conference matchups, let\u2019s look at attendance.<\/p>\n

Providence sticks out to me and swapping with Michigan seems to be a way of getting this done.<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n15 Northern Michigan vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n12 Penn State vs. 7 Northeastern<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
\n9 Providence vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n10 Michigan vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n14 Boston College vs. 4 Ohio State
\n11 Clarkson vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

You could look at swapping Denver and Northeastern as well, or you can just stop there. If you swapped:<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n15 Northern Michigan vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n12 Penn State vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
\n9 Providence vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n10 Michigan vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n14 Boston College vs. 4 Ohio State
\n11 Clarkson vs. 7 Northeastern<\/p>\n

That is getting as many teams east as you can.<\/p>\n

BUT…<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

Last week we looked at saving a plane trip for Ohio State by sending it to Allentown where it would only have to bus. Let\u2019s try that again this week.<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 4 Ohio State
\n12 Penn State vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n14 Boston College vs. 3 Cornell
\n11 Clarkson vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n15 Northern Michigan vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n10 Michigan vs. 7 Northeastern<\/p>\n

We only have Minnesota vs. Ohio State as an intraconference matchup.<\/p>\n

We swap Minnesota with Boston College.<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Boston College vs. 4 Ohio State
\n12 Penn State vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
\n11 Clarkson vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n15 Northern Michigan vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n10 Michigan vs. 7 Northeastern<\/p>\n

We do the same as we did before, bringing Providence to Bridgeport, but now we move Clarkson to Worcester and Michigan to Sioux Falls.<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Boston College vs. 4 Ohio State
\n12 Penn State vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
\n9 Providence vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n10 Michigan vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n15 Northern Michigan vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n11 Clarkson vs. 7 Northeastern<\/p>\n

The only difference here is that you now have Boston College in Allentown and not Worcester. I will argue here that you can swap Boston College for Northern Michigan. Why? Boston College is 15th in the PairWise and Northern Michigan is tied for 16th. It\u2019s not a larger gap, such as the gap down to Mercyhurst at 20. Thus, I make the swap of Boston College and Northern Michigan.<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n15 Northern Michigan vs. 4 Ohio State
\n12 Penn State vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
\n9 Providence vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n10 Michigan vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n14 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n11 Clarkson vs. 7 Northeastern<\/p>\n

And now I have the same bracket as above, except with Notre Dame and Ohio State in different regionals and saving one plane trip for a team.<\/p>\n

Is it a lot of manipulation? Yes, but it is reasonable.<\/p>\n

See you next week for the next Bracketology.<\/p>\n

Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

This week’s brackets<\/h4>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n15 Northern Michigan vs. 4 Ohio State
\n12 Penn State vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
\n9 Providence vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n10 Michigan vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n14 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n11 Clarkson vs. 7 Northeastern<\/p>\n

Conference breakdowns<\/h4>\n

Big Ten — 5
\nNCHC — 3
\nHockey East — 3
\nECAC Hockey — 2
\nWCHA — 2
\nAtlantic Hockey \u2013 1<\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Brackets<\/h4>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Omaha vs. 4 Ohio State
\n11 Penn State vs. 5 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
\n12 Providence vs. 6 Denver<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Michigan<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n15 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n10 Northeastern vs. 8 Clarkson<\/p>\n

This week\u2019s movement:<\/p>\n

Out: Omaha<\/p>\n

In: Northern Michigan<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now (photo: Jim Rosvold).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":94771,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[947],"tags":[812],"coauthors":[869],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThis week's movement shows Northern Michigan in, Omaha out - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It's time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. 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